$AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
520.26 -4.93%
2026-02-172026-06-16
L 190.95·H 547.26
84 closes · daily · Yahoo Finance
Market Cap
$848.34B
P/E
172.8
52w Range
126 – 558
Mentions 30d
58
01
FinTwit Mentions
60 tweets · last 180 days
@aleabitoreddit
4h ago

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution. Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence. The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing. Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies. The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead. So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference. As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT. More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL. But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV. Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs. But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing. Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing. OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot. So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year. I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt. And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals. As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy. Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028. Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well. OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet. So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

366 likes25 rt112 replies
@dannycheng2022
6h ago

I’m pretty sure most retail investors won’t be chasing $AMD and $MU now. You know what will happen to them next.

174 likes1 rt22 replies
@dannycheng2022
6h ago

RT @dannycheng2022: $AMD (June 16, 2026-daily chart update) When most retail investors are waiting for the big pullback or trying to time the perfect Elliott Wave, whales don’t wait. They quietly accumulate on every small dip, steadily taking shares from fearful retail hands. If you succumbed to the bearish noise on X, you would have completely missed this parabolic trend. The whales have given us plenty of clear signals and months of opportunity to buy and accumulate before the big move. I’ve consistently told my community that you need at least 3-4 semiconductors in a balanced portfolio if you want to ride this cycle’s momentum. $AMD has been one of my top picks since 2025, and my portfolio is smiling — I hold a very big position in it. Follow people who genuinely care and consistently share objective analysis. Avoid permabears who constantly urge you to sell everything, hold cash, and short stocks — or the professional flip-floppers who are bullish when the market is up and instantly turn bearish when it’s down, just so they can later claim “I warned you.”

0 likes3 rt0 replies
@dannycheng2022
13h ago

$AMD (June 16, 2026-daily chart update) When most retail investors are waiting for the big pullback or trying to time the perfect Elliott Wave, whales don’t wait. They quietly accumulate on every small dip, steadily taking shares from fearful retail hands. If you succumbed to the bearish noise on X, you would have completely missed this parabolic trend. The whales have given us plenty of clear signals and months of opportunity to buy and accumulate before the big move. I’ve consistently told my community that you need at least 3-4 semiconductors in a balanced portfolio if you want to ride this cycle’s momentum. $AMD has been one of my top picks since 2025, and my portfolio is smiling — I hold a very big position in it. Follow people who genuinely care and consistently share objective analysis. Avoid permabears who constantly urge you to sell everything, hold cash, and short stocks — or the professional flip-floppers who are bullish when the market is up and instantly turn bearish when it’s down, just so they can later claim “I warned you.”

16 likes0 rt4 replies
@aleabitoreddit
14h ago

New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.

879 likes67 rt245 replies
@dannycheng2022
18h ago

$NVDA and $AMD (June 16, 2026-monthly charts) I bought $NVDA and $AMD when the monthly red candles appeared. $NVDA printed one in January 2023 while trading around $15.20 (split-adjusted), and $AMD near $110 in 2025. (Please refer to the charts.) Since then, both stocks have delivered outstanding performance. For compounding gains, I continued accumulating steadily — roughly over one year for each: 2023–2024 for $NVDA and 2025–2026 for $AMD. This experience reinforced what I’ve long believed: position sizing matters far more than perfectly timing the bottom.

54 likes1 rt3 replies
@citrini
1d ago

$AMD is acquiring MEXT, an AI-driven memory optimization company for data center infrastructure. MEXT’s tech helps make flash storage behave more like DRAM, expanding usable memory capacity while maintaining performance.

361 likes51 rt13 replies
@aleabitoreddit
1d ago

$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.

1,292 likes88 rt231 replies
@dannycheng2022
1d ago

RT @dannycheng2022: While They Chased Gap Fills and $120 Elliott Targets, We Quietly Made a Fortune on $AMD (June 1, 2026-weekly chart) When most TA guys were calling for $AMD to drop back to fill the gap at $160 — with some Elliott Wave experts even expecting it to plummet to $120 a few months ago — I told my community to ignore the market noise and follow my chart only. I had listed all the key buy and accumulation signals over the past year: 1. Volatility holes — signaling the early stages of a bottom in March 2025. 2. The subsequent red candles followed by strong trend reversal candles in April 2025, confirming the shift in trend-strong buy signals in 2025. 3. Breaking out of those volatility holes in 2025 — additional buy and accumulation signals. 4. Momentum bars closing above — strong buy signals in 2025. What our community did over the past year was extremely simple. I shared my bullish thesis on $AMD, and those who trusted it steadily added from $110 all the way up to $200 before the parabolic move. For those who didn’t trust me, they unsubscribed — and missed the parabolic trend entirely. I’m quite sure those who were still waiting for the gap fill at $160 and the $120 Elliott Wave target are still waiting for Godot. @cantonmeow @sheslee @tonylee80 @Hiteshp99 @starship_ride @yatchiu226

0 likes11 rt0 replies
@dannycheng2022
1d ago

RT @dannycheng2022: I've been sharing my bullish thesis on $NVDA and $PLTR since 2023, and on $AMD since early 2025. Yet every single day I still get messages like: “If we are not in yet, should we chase now? How should we position?” Over the past two years, I’ve posted more than 60 reliable buy signals and multiple clear buy orders with my community, many of them labeled “MUST-READ.” How are people still missing them? Even if you’re not subscribed, just following me on X means you won’t miss the signals! I am speechless! @cantonmeow @sheslee @tonylee80 @starship_ride @Hiteshp99 @elynast @mkfilko @gabz_investing @chad_ventures

0 likes11 rt0 replies
@dannycheng2022
1d ago

RT @dannycheng2022: Some people will always tell you not to buy a stock once it has already doubled or tripled — but my experience has been the exact opposite. I’ve made it a habit to chase strong momentum names after they’ve already run hard, even 2x or 5x from my initial positions. Many of those decisions turned out to be highly profitable, especially when I sized them aggressively. For example: I chased $NVDA around $30+ in 2023 after it had already tripled from its 2022 cycle low near $10.80. I chased $PLTR after it doubled from $5.83 to $12 in 2023. I chased $AMD at $150 in 2025 after it had already doubled from its cycle low near $76. I chased $TSM at $112 in February 2024 after it had doubled from $56.90 in 2022. I chased $IREN after it 10x’d from $1.02 to over $10 in 2025. I chased $ONDS at $2 and higher after it 5x’d from $0.38 in October 2023, and I kept adding as it continued to climb (4x from my initial entries). I chased $HOOD in the $10–12 range after it doubled from its 2022 lows, then kept adding more between $70 and $77 in 2026. I chased $BB between $4.50 and $5.50 after it doubled from $2.01 in August 2024. I chased $TE at $6.50–$7.50 after it had already 6x’d from $0.92 in April 2025. The real edge isn’t avoiding stocks that have already doubled or tripled — it’s having rock-solid conviction and the discipline to hold through volatility. Pure fundamentals rarely give you that edge. What matters is a reliable mix of technical signals, whale momentum, sector tailwinds, and a clear narrative. Chasing strength has beaten waiting for “cheap” names every single time — as long as you know which ones still have fuel left and you’re willing to ride the waves. @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @sheslee @tonylee80 @Hiteshp99 @Nagetheworld

0 likes8 rt0 replies
@dannycheng2022
1d ago

I pushed Chad @chad_ventures to buy more $AMD and $MU again a week ago when whales offered another discount, amid retail skepticism and fear. Now we are so happy to see the premarket price!

29 likes2 rt1 replies
@dannycheng2022
4d ago

Sizing beats timing the bottom. Every. Single. Time. Would you rather: • Buy $AMD at the “perfect” $76 bottom… with a tiny 500 shares? • Or buy at $110 with 20,000 shares and actually make life-changing money? Most people obsess over catching the exact bottom and end up with a pathetic position. The winners size up when conviction is high — even if the price is higher. Position size is the real alpha. Timing is ego!

201 likes8 rt23 replies
@aleabitoreddit
9d ago

Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.

481 likes42 rt124 replies
@dannycheng2022
11d ago

Some people will always tell you not to buy a stock once it has already doubled or tripled — but my experience has been the exact opposite. I’ve made it a habit to chase strong momentum names after they’ve already run hard, even 2x or 5x from my initial positions. Many of those decisions turned out to be highly profitable, especially when I sized them aggressively. For example: I chased $NVDA around $30+ in 2023 after it had already tripled from its 2022 cycle low near $10.80. I chased $PLTR after it doubled from $5.83 to $12 in 2023. I chased $AMD at $150 in 2025 after it had already doubled from its cycle low near $76. I chased $TSM at $112 in February 2024 after it had doubled from $56.90 in 2022. I chased $IREN after it 10x’d from $1.02 to over $10 in 2025. I chased $ONDS at $2 and higher after it 5x’d from $0.38 in October 2023, and I kept adding as it continued to climb (4x from my initial entries). I chased $HOOD in the $10–12 range after it doubled from its 2022 lows, then kept adding more between $70 and $77 in 2026. I chased $BB between $4.50 and $5.50 after it doubled from $2.01 in August 2024. I chased $TE at $6.50–$7.50 after it had already 6x’d from $0.92 in April 2025. The real edge isn’t avoiding stocks that have already doubled or tripled — it’s having rock-solid conviction and the discipline to hold through volatility. Pure fundamentals rarely give you that edge. What matters is a reliable mix of technical signals, whale momentum, sector tailwinds, and a clear narrative. Chasing strength has beaten waiting for “cheap” names every single time — as long as you know which ones still have fuel left and you’re willing to ride the waves. @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @sheslee @tonylee80 @Hiteshp99 @Nagetheworld

152 likes5 rt12 replies
@dannycheng2022
11d ago

$SMH (June 5, 2026-daily) Since early 2024, I’ve been telling my community that $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM, and $AVGO are must-holds. If you want real success, you need to build and maintain a larger position in at least two of these names. Fast forward two years: if you’ve held through the volatility and bought the dips, you’re sitting on serious gains. Even if you don’t own individual semiconductor stocks, $SMH remains a core staple. The bullish uptrend looks unstoppable. My daily charts have delivered four clear buy/accumulation signals, and my favorite volatility hole indicator is the best guidance — a break above the upper boundary could 99% ignite the next leg higher!

21 likes1 rt1 replies
@aleabitoreddit
11d ago

$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.

1,236 likes90 rt113 replies
@aleabitoreddit
12d ago

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

1,089 likes113 rt166 replies
@dannycheng2022
13d ago

RT @_1Spartacus1_: Danny's literally changing real people's lives. Bought into $AMD under $200 & sold at $300. Did I sell too early? No I used the money as a deposit for my daughter's first property. Imagine I used to be happy with 5% interest rates. Subscribe to Danny he can change your life to 🙏

0 likes2 rt0 replies
@dannycheng2022
13d ago

Danny's literally changing real people's lives. Bought into $AMD under $200 & sold at $300. Did I sell too early? No I used the money as a deposit for my daughter's first property. Imagine I used to be happy with 5% interest rates. Subscribe to Danny he can change your life to 🙏

42 likes2 rt2 replies
@dannycheng2022
13d ago

Yes, we talked about why aggressive sizing in some stocks is necessary. This is what I’ve learned from the very wealthy in Asia over the past decade through my observations and interactions with them. Without proper position sizing, meaningful wealth creation is almost impossible. Holding just 100 shares in the right stocks — even in names like $AMD, $NVDA, $AVGO, $TSLA, $MU, $MRVL, $ARM, or $INTC — won’t change your lifestyle or retire you. When we’re in the right stocks, we should size up aggressively during big discounts and continue to add when bullish signals flash across the screen. Maybe Cat @cantonmeow will share a chapter on position sizing in his new book. It really takes us 3-4 weeks to fully explain this.

38 likes1 rt2 replies
@dannycheng2022
13d ago

$AMD (June 3, 2026-daily) The repost has aged well! When you’re in the right stocks, you don’t trade in and out — that’s not genuine long-term investing. Genuine long-term investment means adding to your position at most or all dips when whales give discounts, allowing you to compound your gains over time. For me, strong position sizing determines your final returns, not trying to time the perfect bottom. Over the past year, I shared multiple buy orders for $AMD from $110 all the way up to $198. The repost says it all and delivers a solid slap in the face to the skeptics. As a reminder, the stock market is never for those who trade in and out, nor for the undisciplined and impatient. Learn to follow genuine people on X who show real evidence — screenshots of gains, proven track records, and time-tested indicators. If you do, you might be perfectly positioned for what’s coming next!

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@aleabitoreddit
14d ago

The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?

1,315 likes60 rt209 replies
@dannycheng2022
14d ago

I get asked all the time why I was bullish on $AMD near $100 and below last year — while most traders on here started calling it the Advanced Money Destroyer. It’s simple: most traders are way too short-term focused and can’t recognize macro trends even if they slapped them in the face. If there was one chart that explained exactly why $AMD was so bullish under $100 last year, this is it. When in doubt, zoom out. This was the easiest 5x anybody could have ever gotten if they just learned to eliminate emotions and just be bullish at macro support

84 likes3 rt4 replies
@aleabitoreddit
15d ago

It’s mainly just “follow the leader” algorithmic selloff in current photonics markets. Most laser/optical related companies from $AAOI to $SIVE seem tied to $LITE performance… Despite individual fundamentals improving. Eg. (AOI with $AMD / $NVDA discussions). Algorithms don’t differentiate well, especially if something is higher beta than others. But if you know something markets don’t like Sivers with more optical transceiver customers unannounced. You can outperform in the long run. There’s a lot of 20%-30% intraday moves nowadays, so I personally wouldn’t trade these movements. Just going long on the Kingmakers in photonics thematically since I’m confident in exponential TAM growth.

1,174 likes75 rt139 replies
@dannycheng2022
15d ago

I've been sharing my bullish thesis on $NVDA and $PLTR since 2023, and on $AMD since early 2025. Yet every single day I still get messages like: “If we are not in yet, should we chase now? How should we position?” Over the past two years, I’ve posted more than 60 reliable buy signals and multiple clear buy orders with my community, many of them labeled “MUST-READ.” How are people still missing them? Even if you’re not subscribed, just following me on X means you won’t miss the signals! I am speechless! @cantonmeow @sheslee @tonylee80 @starship_ride @Hiteshp99 @elynast @mkfilko @gabz_investing @chad_ventures

90 likes7 rt4 replies
@dannycheng2022
15d ago

Good stocks are trading at a premium for a reason. If you keep waiting for your dream entry prices or an Elliott Wave correction, you will almost certainly miss the ongoing uptrend. Based on my observation of many Elliott Wave charts, the common projected targets I've seen are: • $ONDS at $2 • $PLTR at $60 • $TSLA at $200 • $NVDA at $62 • $AMD at $120 • $HOOD at $45 • $SOFI at $12 That said, I’m not certain we will actually see these levels — nobody has a crystal ball. All technical predictions are simply for reference. To me, Elliott Waves are like horoscopes: interesting but not something I rely on. I prefer to trust my own analysis and conviction rather than follow random chart drawings.

25 likes0 rt2 replies
@dannycheng2022
15d ago

Everybody needs to find their own conviction stocks. Blindly copying others without doing your own research is a fast way to lose money. One man’s meat is another man’s poison. My top three core holdings — $PLTR, $NVDA, and $AMD — make up over 90% of my portfolios. I have deep conviction in them. But if you don’t share the same belief, patience, and discipline to dollar-cost-average during major dips, then copying me is totally pointless! Not everyone wins with these stocks. Many buy high, panic-sell on weakness, or fight the trend with options. I’ve watched some of my friends short $NVDA near $30 in 2023 and $150 in 2025— literally betting against me — only to get burned as it ran higher. Others sold $PLTR between $30–$40 because “valuations were extremely high,” and some dumped $AMD at $195 while still waiting for a gap fill back to $160. I’m fully prepared to hold these positions long term. I’ve been holding $NVDA and $PLTR since my first buys in 2023 and have continued adding along the way. For $AMD, I spent a full year (2025-2026) accumulating from around $110 up to $200 during dips and when my signals flashed bullish. I’m not looking for the “next big $PLTR or next $AMD.” While retail chases hype, I’ll quietly keep accumulating my own conviction stocks whenever whales offer real discounts. That’s my edge — patience, conviction and dry power during big discounts!

71 likes2 rt11 replies
@aleabitoreddit
15d ago

$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now. I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT. High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with hyperscalers. Capacity projections at $90 for 2027 timelines were bullish. Now at $150, the story from 2025 is coming together with all the laser fab bottlenecks, GS optical TAM projections, Made in America efforts, $NVDA / $AMD discussion rumors. The only thing holding them back is ATM after ATM, and now another $600m ATM… I personally think it easily rerates once the mechanical selling pressure stops. And personally think it could be a 4-5x return in 12-24M. Also I don’t know who calculates those forward p/e’s on the screener websites but they’re all extremely off.

1,007 likes59 rt177 replies
@dannycheng2022
15d ago

While They Chased Gap Fills and $120 Elliott Targets, We Quietly Made a Fortune on $AMD (June 1, 2026-weekly chart) When most TA guys were calling for $AMD to drop back to fill the gap at $160 — with some Elliott Wave experts even expecting it to plummet to $120 a few months ago — I told my community to ignore the market noise and follow my chart only. I had listed all the key buy and accumulation signals over the past year: 1. Volatility holes — signaling the early stages of a bottom in March 2025. 2. The subsequent red candles followed by strong trend reversal candles in April 2025, confirming the shift in trend-strong buy signals in 2025. 3. Breaking out of those volatility holes in 2025 — additional buy and accumulation signals. 4. Momentum bars closing above — strong buy signals in 2025. What our community did over the past year was extremely simple. I shared my bullish thesis on $AMD, and those who trusted it steadily added from $110 all the way up to $200 before the parabolic move. For those who didn’t trust me, they unsubscribed — and missed the parabolic trend entirely. I’m quite sure those who were still waiting for the gap fill at $160 and the $120 Elliott Wave target are still waiting for Godot. @cantonmeow @sheslee @tonylee80 @Hiteshp99 @starship_ride @yatchiu226

64 likes6 rt1 replies
@dannycheng2022
16d ago

Finding 10X Stocks Is Not Difficult. Holding and Compounding Them Is Rare. (May 31, 2026) Finding a 10X stock is one thing. Holding it through volatility and adding aggressively on every dip is what separates the elite from the crowd. Most investors talk a big game about conviction, but crumble the moment volatility hits. They FOMO in at the top, panic-sell at the first red candle, and then chase the next shiny momentum narrative. Not me. Over the past three years, I’ve trained myself like an athlete to do what few can: identify generational winners early, initiate strong positions, and keep compounding through the noise especially from X: 1. $NVDA from $15.2 since January 2023 2. $PLTR from $8.8 since May 2023 3. $AMD from $110, since May 2025 I didn’t just buy once and pray. I kept adding every time the whales offered meaningful discounts and shared with my Tier 3 community—because real edges are forged in the fire of drawdowns, not during euphoric rallies. I don’t need a portfolio full of 100 stocks. I just need three truly exceptional companies executed with discipline. While others scatter their capital chasing whatever is hot this week/month, I stay laser-focused on the handful of names where I have genuine edge and ironclad conviction. This isn’t luck. This is process. This is mental toughness. This is turning market volatility into my greatest ally instead of my enemy.T he path to life-changing wealth isn’t about finding multiople winners. It’s about having the courage and discipline to ride the ones you already found—all the way to the finish line!

55 likes3 rt5 replies
@dannycheng2022
17d ago

RT @sheslee: It wasn’t so long ago that @dannycheng2022 was banging the drums on $AMD (back when it was trading around $100), trying to get me to ride this with him… I had my bags full with $PLTR so sat on the sidelines for this. I made the choice to sit out so I don’t sweat missing this run but $AMD has done an incredible 5x in the past year and Danny called it right before it happened 🫡 You’ve done excellent and have made some really, really great calls 🤩 @dannycheng2022 and I have very different approaches to managing our portfolio but I deeply respect the work that he’s done and consider him a dear friend. Amazing brother!

0 likes6 rt0 replies
@dannycheng2022
17d ago

It wasn’t so long ago that @dannycheng2022 was banging the drums on $AMD (back when it was trading around $100), trying to get me to ride this with him… I had my bags full with $PLTR so sat on the sidelines for this. I made the choice to sit out so I don’t sweat missing this run but $AMD has done an incredible 5x in the past year and Danny called it right before it happened 🫡 You’ve done excellent and have made some really, really great calls 🤩 @dannycheng2022 and I have very different approaches to managing our portfolio but I deeply respect the work that he’s done and consider him a dear friend. Amazing brother!

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@dannycheng2022
18d ago

Honestly, looking back to late March and early April, the majority of voices on X were loudly calling for a sharp drop in May. Targets like $SPY to 5,800, $PLTR to $60–$100, $NVDA to $82, $TSLA to $280, $ONDS to $2, and $AMD to $120–$160 (mostly based on Elliott Wave counts or gap-fill theories) were all over social media. In hindsight, it became very clear who the real TA guys are and who the fake ones are. The genuine ones stayed objective, respected the higher-timeframe trend, and didn’t force ultra-bearish counts just to sound smart or chase engagement. The fake TA crowd, on the other hand, kept recycling the same broken patterns and doomsday scenarios — predictions that have been consistently wrong for years. Had anyone followed those fake calls, they would have completely missed this powerful parabolic rally. Retail sentiment remains low while a good portion of institutional money is still sitting on the sidelines. This is exactly why I see significant upside ahead. Every dip over the past three years has been a strong buying opportunity — and I believe this will continue. I have been holding and accumulating my winners since Jan 2023, as my research and technical analysis point to much higher prices. This is not financial advice — always do your own due diligence. But here’s the truth I’ve learned: don’t let the loud permabear noise affect your logic or strategy. The fake TA guys have been wrong for over a decade, and their excuses (recession fears, “it’s different this time,” broken wave counts) are getting weaker with every missed call. The market climbs walls of worry. Real edge comes from filtering out the noise, trusting your own process, and recognizing that fear is often the best contrarian signal. Stay disciplined, keep studying, and let real analysis — not the loudest voices — guide your decisions.

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@dannycheng2022
18d ago

With the approval of Victor, my loyal subscriber who has trusted me along the way, he placed a bet on $AMD before the recent surge when I shared the last reliable signal. Here’s the screenshot of his gains that he kindly shared with me. I’m genuinely happier seeing other people’s wins than my own — because this is exactly what drives me to work harder every single day, every week, and even while on vacation.

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@dannycheng2022
18d ago

I've known Danny for nearly 2 years now, and looking back, so many great things have happened since then. For many people, Danny was the person who helped bring tremendous value to their portfolios through companies like $PLTR, $IREN, $ASTS, $RKLB, and of course, the "gem" $AMD. For me, however, his impact went far beyond investing returns. Danny introduced me to a circle of incredibly intelligent people—great investors and traders with strong mindsets, positive attitudes, and a constant desire to improve. There's a saying: "Surround yourself with five millionaires, and you'll become the sixth." I truly believe the right environment can completely change your trajectory. Beyond the investment ideas, Danny helped me build my own project (my own Patreon) by giving me visibility through mentions, recommendations, and support whenever I needed guidance. For that, I'll always be grateful. I'm a firm believer that the good you put into the world eventually comes back to you. Among the people who have had the biggest influence on my investing journey and from whom I've drawn inspiration for both market ideas and content are: @dannycheng2022 @cantonmeow @TJTheWheelDeal @OptionNorth @matthughes13 @acethebulllly @redfoxryder @tonylee80 @sheslee @EWTracker @Micro2Macr0 @valerijatrades1 Thank you for everything you've contributed to my journey. 🙏 Your impact reaches much further than you probably realize.

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@dannycheng2022
18d ago

RT @dannycheng2022: Never underestimate the power of simple charts and the beautify of genuine long term investment—these parabolic stocks are likely to go even higher. $ARM $INTC $AAOI $MRVL $AEHR $SNDK $MU blockstack:native $AMD $AXTI $AVGO I've been charting these outperformers almost daily for months now, whenever I can, to keep my community informed. I’d rather not spend time on laggards — it’s not the best use of either of our time.

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@aleabitoreddit
18d ago

I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks… Than I was back at $2B or $6B. I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD. If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027… that’s absurd ramp. But of course the $600M ATM is a short term overhang. Just a matter of waiting time? Given it’s more about keeping up with demand… So more of a matter of how much they can make. Probably my favorite US-based photonics long stock now that I own.

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@dannycheng2022
18d ago

Kudos keep coming @dannycheng2022 @cantonmeow Here is my brother Ritchie’s account in 🇮🇳 He invests in both 🇮🇳 and 🇺🇸 5x in $ASTS He did very well in $GOOGL and $AMD He follows @dannycheng2022 charts diligently. Infact, he has outperformed me by following Danny. So, proud of him!!!

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@dannycheng2022
19d ago

This post has aged well. When $AMD ran to $300 a couple of months ago and then smashed through $400 just weeks later, I received a flood of messages asking if I was trimming my position. I stood firm and shared my full bullish thesis with the community: $AMD is headed toward a $1 trillion market cap as my first major target — and explained in detail why I wasn’t selling a single share. To keep everyone aligned on the core must-hold stocks, I try my best to chart them daily and highlight the most important levels. Any post I mark “MUST-READ” is exactly what I want the community to focus on every single day, week, and month!

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@aleabitoreddit
19d ago

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables

1,485 likes140 rt269 replies
@dannycheng2022
19d ago

I’ve massive respect for Danny Cheng @dannycheng2022 One thing I’ve learned from watching great investors is that real wealth is often built through conviction, patience, and long-term thinking. His recent $AMD position is a perfect example: - started building around $110 - continued dollar cost averaging - built it into a massive position - now AMD is at $500 (I don’t own AMD, but we do chat with each other and I genuinely felt he deserved a shoutout.) That’s nearly +300% returns from simply sticking with the thesis and thinking long term. Most people want instant results. Very few are willing to stay through the entire journey.

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@aleabitoreddit
20d ago

Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.

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@dannycheng2022
20d ago

Just out of curiosity — how many of you sold your $AMD after most TA analysts said you could buy it back at $120 or $160?

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@dannycheng2022
20d ago

$AMD (May 27, 2026-daily) My first target price for $AMD was hit today. Congratulations to all genuine long-term $AMD shareholders — especially my community, who had the conviction to load up with me from $110 and kept adding shares for a full year all the way to $200. On the daily chart, I have highlighted the 11 reliable buy signals that have played out with high accuracy so far. Remember, red candles are not the only buy signals. I also use volatility holes, breakout levels, and my second proprietary system (which I don’t share publicly to prevent copying) to monitor price action and identify high-probability setups. Follow people with reliable signals — not those fake furus who told you to buy at $120 or $160 after it had already surged to $250. Next, I will be sharing my next target price with the community today. This run is proof that position sizing matters far more than perfectly timing the absolute bottom of the cycle at $76. @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @tonylee80 @sheslee

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@dannycheng2022
21d ago

$AMD (May 26, 2026-daily chart update) To everyone who mocked $AMD and kept saying “just wait for $120 or $160”… sorry guys, you completely missed the boat! I seriously doubt you have the balls to chase it at $480 now. Keep waiting for Godot. The market always rewards the disciplined ones — the ones with real vision and the guts to size up aggressively! @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @sheslee

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@dannycheng2022
21d ago

RT @dannycheng2022: A Concentrated Yet Diversified Portfolio (April 27, 2026) My portfolio is concentrated in a 3 high-conviction AI leaders— 1. $NVDA (average cost $15.2 since January 2023), 2. $PLTR ($8.8 since 2023), and 3. $AMD (since $110 in May 2025). These three names now represent the vast majority (90%) of my holdings through organic growth rather than forced allocation. From the start, my plan was not to chase every hot ticker but to identify the real companies driving the AI super-cycle. I spent years poring over earnings reports, understanding their technology, competitive moats, and long-term trajectories before committing millions to each. While I wasn’t lucky enough to catch the absolute bottom, my research, technical analysis, and conviction positioned me in the right boats at meaningful size—creating life-changing wealth. I bet big on these established AI giants because they offer the optimal balance of explosive growth potential and relative stability. These are the foundational picks powering the entire ecosystem: they have proven business models, massive scale, strong cash flows, and clear paths to sustained dominance. Their size reduces (though doesn’t eliminate) company-specific blow-up risk compared to smaller players. When bears messaged me or challenged my positions, I smiled and kept accumulating—because the stock market rewards those with confidence, patience, and unwavering conviction, not those who second-guess or panic at every dip. At the same time, I maintain a diversified basket of mid-cap and small-cap names. I consciously kept these positions small, treating them more like lottery tickets than core holdings. I fully recognize that some small-caps could deliver 10x or greater returns in this AI boom, but I also deeply understand risk management. Smaller companies are far more volatile, prone to sharp drawdowns, execution risks, and funding challenges. By sizing them modestly, I participate in their upside without jeopardizing the portfolio’s overall stability or sleep-at-night factor. Nobody has a crystal ball—predicting which small names will truly outperform is impossible—so the prudent path is staying in the game with disciplined risk control. Why bet big on big AI stocks and small on small caps? The proven leaders provide the engine for reliable, high-conviction compounding. The smaller names add diversification and asymmetric upside optionality—without ever putting the core portfolio at risk. This structure lets me capture the full spectrum of the AI opportunity while protecting what matters most. Conviction, Discipline, and Staying in the Game—That’s How Real Wealth Is Built. It’s not about having perfect indicators, trading in and out to lose the long-term rally, or simply copying my indicators and blindly following my trades. In the end, everything boils down to patience, hard work, meticulous stock picks, ironclad holding power, and plenty of dry powder. This is the real edge!

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@dannycheng2022
21d ago

I pushed Chad @chad_ventures to load up on more $AMD when it was still trading below $398 on May 19, based on my own TA. I didn’t chase it myself though — I’m already quite heavy with 24,888 shares. My one-year accumulation phase ran from $110 all the way up to $198 a couple of months ago, shared with my TIER 3 community more than 6 times over the past year.

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@dannycheng2022
22d ago

It’s not about copying others’ indicators or relying on simple technical analysis alone that ultimately wins in the market. Real success comes from conviction — the wisdom to select strong stocks, the discipline to hold through volatility, and the courage to add during major discounts when retail sentiment is filled with skepticism and doubt. Today’s interview with @sheslee was truly eye-opening. It reminded us how important it is to pick your own conviction stocks based on personal research, rather than blindly following any system or indicators. Our Top 3 Conviction Stocks (not in any particular order): 1. Lee @sheslee : $PLTR, $OSCR, $BB since 2023 2. Cat @cantonmeow : $PLTR, $TSLA, $CIFR since 2023 3. Danny @dannycheng2022 : $PLTR, $NVDA since 2023 and $AMD since 2025 We are very transparent and happy to share our conviction stocks openly because we sincerely want everyone to win and succeed through long-term investing, not by trading in and out! @cantonmeow @sheslee

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@dannycheng2022
23d ago

New laptop, new setup. I don't have my usual mic with me (apologize for the audio ahead of time), but I recorded 12 videos on 37 (!) tickers for @dannycheng2022's Patreon last night and this morning, with deep analysis on $PLTR $TSLA $NVDA $AMD and thoughts on $FUTU and $TIGR. https://t.co/lsgIO4HakP

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@dannycheng2022
24d ago

How I Built a Massive $AMD Position and Why I’m Still Holding Strong At $76, I missed the absolute bottom in $AMD — and that’s okay. At $110, I began aggressively building a much larger position after my own research and following my signals. I entered with 18,000 shares at 2 private banks because I’ve always believed that a decent size in the right name matters far more than perfectly timing the exact bottom with a tiny position. At $130, I continued adding shares all the way up to $160, right before the stock surged to $220. Some of my subscribers were initially very skeptical and kept asking why I was buying $AMD instead of $AVGO. Their doubt only strengthened my conviction. At $194 to $200 (a couple of months ago), I made my final bet in my trading account as highlighted here. As a long-term investor, I simply kept DCA’ing based on my own signals and doubled down even when many smart Elliott Wave analysts were calling for a collapse back to $160 — or even $120. Those bearish calls served as strong contrarian confirmation in retrospect! At this stage, with the stock trading near $460, the best strategy is simple: sit back and enjoy the parabolic ride. Looking back if any content creator is telling you to trim at $200 and wait for the collapse, they are fake furus who need to sharpen their technical analysis. If they’re advising you to trade in and out by selling at $300, they don’t understand the power of long-term compounding in exceptional companies. At the core, the real wisdom is this: Initiate a strong position in the right stocks, DCA consistently when your reliable indicators align, and always keep dry powder for meaningful dips. At the end of the day, it sounds simple, but very few execute it with discipline. Our community has done exactly that, and the results speak for themselves. The stock market ultimately rewards the prepared — not the emotional chasers. The whales gave us well over a year to accumulate gradually. Those who used that time wisely are now positioned to benefit significantly.

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@dannycheng2022
25d ago

Important Disclaimer: The Final Decision Is Yours Picking stocks is a lot like choosing a boyfriend or girlfriend — ultimately, nobody can make the decision for you. My job is simply to highlight the bullish setups I see and present them as meticulously and in as much detail as possible. However, the final decision is always yours. One man’s meat is another man’s poison. I personally love $NVDA, $AMD, and $PLTR which account for more than 91% in my various portfolios, but so many traders have lost money on these names over the past few years. My advice: read my charts carefully, do your own research, and pay special attention to the “MUST READ” posts before making any decisions. The title should speak for themselves extremely clearly! Even a private bank director earning at least US$2-$10 million a year cannot make the best financial decisions for you. As a small retail voice here, I’m sorry that I can only try my best to share my analysis — I cannot and will not tell you what to buy or sell.

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@aleabitoreddit
26d ago

Just as I say this: $AMD invests $10B+ into Taiwan ecosystem (for securing capacity/scaling infra) AMD is collaborating with $ASX and SPIL. As well as ODM partners like “ $SANM, Wiwynn (6669), Wistron (3231) and Inventec (2356). PTI, Unimicron, AIC, Nan Ya PCB, and Kinsus were also name dropped as direct beneficiaries. And of course second order beneficiaries like Foci or MSScorps also benefit. But bullish on Taiwan supply chains all around from $AMD news.

249 likes17 rt102 replies
@dannycheng2022
26d ago

You don’t need to time the exact bottom. Position sizing is far more important. I never tried to catch the absolute cycle low. Instead, I bought after strong rebounds of +50% to over +900% once the recovery was clearly underway — and simply sized my positions properly. This is what I’ve done with strong size over the past three years: $NVDA — Bought at $15.20 in Jan 2023 (+41% from cycle low $10.80) $PLTR — Bought at $8.80 (+51% from $5.83) $TSM — Bought at $112 in Feb 2024 (+97% from $56.90) $RKLB — Bought at $6 in Aug 2024 (+73% from $3.47) $ASTS — Bought at $20 in Aug 2024 (+915% from $1.97) $EOSE — Bought at $0.89 (+46% from $0.61) $IREN — Bought at $3 in Oct 2023 (+75% from $1.71) $CIFR — Bought at $3 in Apr 2023 (+687% from $0.38) $AMD — Bought at $110 in May 2025 (+45% from $76) $HOOD — Bought at $10 in Dec 2023 (+47% from $6.81) Main lesson: Timing the exact bottom is overrated. Getting the position size right and buying once the trend has turned matters much more for long-term results. Big winners come from conviction + proper sizing, not from buying at the perfect price!

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@dannycheng2022
27d ago

I'm pretty sure very few retail investors are chasing $AMD or $NVDA at these prices. Anyone selling them before $NVDA earnings?

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@aleabitoreddit
27d ago

If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A. Sivers likely customers were: Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company. Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company. Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others. Celestial when they were tiny -> bought by $MRVL and became their growth vector. Probably would be valued $10B+ standalone. I’m extremely sure Sivers knows what to acquire for optical IP. They were just stuck in a catch-22 and lacked the funding to do so originally, despite owning one of the most valuable laser chokepoints. Future NASDAQ listing and recent growth unlocked downstream IP acquisition potential now.

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@aleabitoreddit
28d ago

Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.

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@citrini
29d ago

Leopold released his 13F and uhh... WHAT IS THIS? Puts in $SMH $NVDA $ORCL $AVGO $AMD $MU $TSM $ASML Bro turned into Michael Burry However, the fact that he was in these positions on March 31st means that the following rally over the next six weeks absolutely obliterated him. What is happening to Leopold (or what does he think is happening to us)?

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@dannycheng2022
May 17

Just posted: 9 of Dr. Cat’s @cantonmeow video highlights featuring 27 key stocks you need to keep an eye on. Due to time constraints, Cat wasn’t able to cover more than that this week. That said, these are all must-own stocks for this market cycle, though there are still some more. On the semiconductor side, Cat has covered $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, and $TSM extensively over the past year, and I’ve been highlighting them as must-own names since February 2024. Rather than repeating the same semiconductor commentary this week, we’ve focused this time on covering a broader range of sectors. Not everyone is willing to put in extensive work on the weekends, but we have done it consistently over the past years because we are committed to keeping our community well-prepared and focused — ignoring all the market noise on X!

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@aleabitoreddit
May 17

When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.

1,015 likes80 rt77 replies
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