@aleabitoreddit

Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs: 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO. Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to Ayar. Should go brrr 2027 but markets are forward looking, so ramps + qualifications should get priced in now. LPK Laser - Glass core substrate "monopoly" with LIDE. "More than 80% of major global players have selected our equipment for process validation, learning and scaling to mass production" Soitec - Silicon photonics SoI substrate pure monopoly while coming out of legacy drag segments. Raspberry Pi - Was my fun idea around Raspberry Pis being used for AI hardware deployments. Previously this thing was mainly educational or hobby boards, but now used for edge/local AI. Just thought revenue increase would be extremely material and it played out well. IQE - Critical epiwafer player for your Western photonics like Macom, Tower, Lumentum, and others. Was kinda going under, but thought their latent capacity relative to Landmark was undervalued. Also given how important it was, I thought that your downstream players + Govs wouldn't let it go under, so it was more of a moonshot idea earlier in the year. Lot more derisked now, very important. Riber - Kinda monopoly in the MBE space, exposure to Quantum / quantum dot + silicon photonics. Found out from OSINT help from a friend latentvalue that Microsoft Quantum was buying their machines, so this was direct hyperscaler validation + kinda de-risked at current MCs. XFab - SiC foundry backed by EU/US CHIPS Act with power semi upside. (152% Y/Y growth for their sic vertical). Main growth was their silicon photonics foundry past 2027 that's getting evaled by nvidia. And that they're leading Europe's value chain efforts in photonics, kinda like an early tower semi. We'll see how this plays out, thought power semi exposure + low P/B would derisk the company until they scale their photbunchonics efforts. From my own personal thoughts: Out of the maybe $SOI has already been re-rated the most? But I'm holding anyway. $LPK and $ALRIB I think are still undervalued despite their monopolies. $RPI is just kinda seeing how things go at this point, would be hilarious if they ended up like a mini nvidia for low end edge ai. $IQE probably has a long way to go given new tower long term agreement, alongside macom. And if they convert latent capacity, I still think it has a chance of rerating like landmark. $XFAB idk if im missing something or are markets missing something. you have nvidia as a direct eval of their silicon photonics foundry, and it's trading below replacement P/B. i think im right though. $SIVE I see has the highest upside out of all of them given laser company ability to vertically integrate, acquire companies downstream to make their lasers more valuable, etc. Just like coherent/lumentum. There's like 1-2 more random ones that aren't really material, but just in general. These are the ones I've liked the most.

I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.

$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.

@aleabitoreddit I need another $SIVE serenity 😗

Ur welcome with $IQE https://t.co/dn7XDgZ4FE

Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi. https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU

@aleabitoreddit Hi serenity! Take a look $IQE https://t.co/gKRvJrNBn1

Yep, very stupid to be a bear. When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms. On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration. $LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing. $SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to risk on themes/IPOs (eg. Space sector). And overall macro go brr from War/Strait peace deals. It’s already kind of showing, since 2026 rate hike odds also crashed from 65% -> 35% following the news. Along with crude futures dropping. I've actually found Europe to be the most price sensitive to Iran tensions, so EU markets would probably be the most bullish overall… (South Korea/TW was originally with Sk Hynix moving directly in correlation to crude oil futures, but stopped caring after awhile). But basically: Murica go brrrr.

Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports. Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes) My optical positions are very happy to hear this: From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI (lasers) / $LITE / $SIVE, and others. Taiwanese optical players like VPEC, Landmark, and others should go brrr as well. Just to recap: the photonics market, especially for laser companies is moreso "how much can you make" rather than how much demand is there. InP substrates was one of the main bottlenecks affecting upstream capacity. So if you're able to make more = more revenue.

$NVDA and $GOOGL lead 800V DC ahead of schedule. "Ahead of schedule", pulled up to Q3 2026 with small volume shipments starting . - Delta Electronics (2308), $VRT - Song Chuan Precision (7788) - Schneider Electric, Eaton, Siemens. All flagged as beneficiaries. "Market sources indicate that Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform and Google’s next-generation AI data centers will be the first to adopt the technology" Source: Commercial Times The power semi trade should be happy to hear this.

This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.

If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China 🇨🇳: set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America 🇺🇸: bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX, don’t care about valuations Europe 🇪🇺: from $SIVE to $SOI, cares more about water usage than the AI buildout. Somehow can only look at past 12 months. (Belgium is cool so far), looking at you France + Sweden Korea 🇰🇷: leveraged degens. I’ve never seen a market so volatile. Equivalent of 50x hyperliquid traders but with stock markets. Japan 🇯🇵: somehow supportive of everything, haven’t seen any Japanese person aggressively bear post and short stocks before. Not enough data on other places yet like Latin America, but will have some soon enough ig.

It’s been officially 3 months since I posted my $SIVE long thesis back at 4 SEK. This idea is now up ~1900%… With many US institutions from JPM to Fidelity only recently entering positions. Probably my 2nd greatest thesis of all time after $AXTI. Did you listen anon? https://t.co/dSZ6AeTJYL

Okay my fellow Koreans, it's been awhile. Foosung (093370, ~$1.2B MC) looks like a massive beneficiary soon. Basically China export controlled Japan, causing their WF₆ supply chain to go down. Meaning 25% of the world's supply required for SK Hynix, Samsung, $TSM go bye bye. If you remember the Straight of Homuz with Oil, that's a lot. Foosung's importance just shot through the roof given from some est. they're 10% of the supply chain? So that number goes up, massive bottleneck for demand. Then this looks like the best pure play beneficiary outside of China (even if precursors pricing are rough). Don't have positions, just wanted to publish an idea.

The AI supremacy Wars begins. Think a lot of the upstream supply chain bottlenecks caused by each Country export controlling each other (eg. $AXTI) Should present some interesting opportunities in the near future. That being said, Anthropic was getting distilled left and right in Singapore -> China and others. Hot take, but steps like this do help preserve American dominance in AI, keeping the most advanced model at home. I don’t think Superintelligence should be global access, since we’re starting to get into uncharted territories.

$SPCX is now trading! And it’s now over $2.15T+ MC. https://t.co/HLQ8ZkbBvi

All the $SNDK short sellers went extinct. Can’t believe it’s almost $2000 now? That aside feels like everyone is just waiting for the $SPCX IPO in a few hours. https://t.co/EahzuEy1KE

Bro I still can't believe Japan's WF6 supply chain got shut down from China export controls. Which affects $TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix. Are we really playing global supply chain warfare and game theory over AI supremacy? Japan probably has the most amount of obscure monopolies, but they haven't fully been weaponizing it back yet. So I wonder if this is the start of a slippery slope?

VPEC new price hikes on Epiwafers today. Positive bottleneck read through on companies like $IQE and Landmark (3081) in terms of pricing power/demand for epiwafers. This follows $MTSI investment into IQE to secure capacity, and shows how important some of these chokepoints are. (disclosure: have positions in IQE)

Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.

Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100! Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies… Into the largest ones on Nasdaq https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T

Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now. Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran. This market is so volatile… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL

New Anthropic news looks like a potential tailwind for the Neocloud colo sector. Such as $WULF, $CIFR, $WYFI, $HUT and others (not named yet). As Anthropic is pursuing its first DC leases. "The AI company has signed more than a dozen letters of intent with U.S. developers" per The Information.

If you haven’t noticed too with my other investment themes with 800V DC and CPO recently. It’s investing in $NVDA, America’s national champion in AI, and securing their supply chains. Many things feel technologically difficult with yields to substrate supply. People can always bear post laser capacity or export control bottlenecks and tell people to short Nvidia’s supply chains due to difficulties. But by investing in the critical companies to give them more capex spend for FAU capacity / yields. Or funding upstream red phosphorus/InP substrate capacity or SiC/GaN capacity. It builds up Western supply chains to make what’s technologically challenging, possible. Also I believe in Jensen.

Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.

At this point I can't tell anymore if markets from $META to $MSFT are correcting because of macro. Or just liquidity pull from $SPCX + index inclusion. And institutions frontrunning Nasdaq 100 and other rebalancing of SpaceX... Anyone know? https://t.co/sTLjsGq95V

Woah, Frankfurt Bank strategists say: 8% of US current-account deficit could be refinanced in a single day by overseas demand for SpaceX ( $SPCX ) shares. Excited to see how markets react around a Mega-IPO... Don't think there's been any historical precedence like this yet? https://t.co/W2apWN6QG4

There was interesting research published called "Democratization of Retail Trading". That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments. and found: 1. "WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks." 2. "Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases." Their conclusion? "We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice." I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options). I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.

Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).

Just thought this was interesting: $LPK is an unknown SpaceX supplier. You can find it in SpaceX US import logs. It's fun information discovery ahead of Space'x IPO this week. Though, not sure what the exact contract entails. Disclosure: I have positions in LPK, NFA, credit to my follower Albert_TheVoid for the DM! Especially since everyone seems to be talking about about SpaceX with Velo... Just a fun, new direct relationship between $LPK and SpaceX if people want to do more digging.

@aleabitoreddit Still like $XFAB ?

@aleabitoreddit $lpk?

I like $SIVE

Oh look… a new report by Reuters shows China’s control over InP threatens the AI DC buildout. Who could have guessed $AXTI would have been a major point of failure? https://t.co/mu9sOWGHN6

这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。 目前今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。 我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！ 比如像 Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。 如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对… 所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。 我只是边走边分享而已！

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.

This really is making me wonder. What happened is retail based on @aleabitoreddit and some other frontier analysts front ran the optics/photonics cycle. Then we started seeing statements that $JPM Fidelity etc have been buying $SIVE Now we start hearing a narrative saying "you know what? You're WAY too early with that stuff. You should sell it." So they want us to sell it right as they're accumulating it 🤔

Just in case you weren’t aware… The broader index is down a significant -3-4%. Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK. And are largely affected by wider selloffs. Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only? https://t.co/XRlXdeHbm1

Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i

Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back. Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex. Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen. Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4 https://t.co/YX9apQSVLT

Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.

If you want a TLDR of today: &gt; be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO &gt; analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time! &gt; market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything” &gt; Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating. ???

$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and opportunities.

$NVDA Networking Senior Vice President refuting recent analyst reports on delays: - “ the most exciting stuff is co-packaged optics.” - There is no delay in H2 CPO product delivery schedule. - CPO switch will enter mass production and begin ramping up customer deliveries as planned in the second half of 2026 This was a media article, original interview source credit should have been credited to Tae Kim / Computex. Something fun to note too was this quote “Gilad was VERY enthusiastic about the CPO ramp from Nvidia.” Both near term and long term. Yeah… I’m extremely bullish on CPO alongside Nvidia.

CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028” SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff) Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after) I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy. Appreciate the buying opportunity though.

Just seen both BlackRock and Fidelity showing up as $SIVE institutional ownership? Is this completely new? https://t.co/OmdTm6wMqE https://t.co/1BwMfLf31w

I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583

$EWY 32% IV into 58% IV expansion trade. Into underlying SK Hynix / Samsung increase way ITM. Was such a goated call? (~383% return) Had way too many great ideas this year… Still super proud of predicting South Korea index volatility increase due to memory concentration https://t.co/Kjur1bdKp7

Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.

Given my recent popularity, might be a good time to put out a PSA. Early followers have known this from the start: 1. I don't do any paid promotions, paid marketing, or accept outside gifts. But I appreciate all the recent outreach from companies! If you see or engage with something online related to any type of payment, it's fabricated for engagement or a scammer. The reason I don't want to is because I'm just posting on X for fun, and when money is involved it turns into a job (which I don't want it to feel like). Also, well off personally so I've never felt influenced by anyone outside. 2. The only "paid" thing I have is $1 subscriptions. That's all. From the very start, I've never taken a single penny outside of X subscriptions/creator sharing. Which is why I say in my bio: "I only use X, beware of imposters." Anyone approaching you to share an external community or app is a scammer or imposter. It's just very frustrating that people still fall for these impersonators. 3. I'm just one person posting my thoughts online. -> Not some institution or Illuminati team. Quality of research is "high" because I have a technical background. And I genuinely do this as a hobby researching supply chain ideas. There's not some "hidden" motive like a paid research group from Asia, it's just fun lol. 4. I will always disclose positions if I have them or if I don't. Very open and transparent about it. With Chinese equities I'm just posting research in hope it benefits people find conviction in critical companies in global supply chains. I don't have any positions / any financial incentives (so I can be impartial), and haven't privately discussed with anyone about ideas I post beforehand. Maybe it happens in Asia, but in the US it's highly illegal to be running groups or getting paid to post about companies. I'm just posting my ideas for free without outside influence, in case others like the idea. It probably seems odd, but I'm doing this as a hobby and for fulfillment of helping others. 5. I'm staying anonymous so I can just freely post my ideas online. Reason being is after I first posted negative things about $IREN, I would have a lot of personal IRL threats and harassment from dozens of accounts for me to stop. Don't want any personal safety or people around me to be at risk for just publishing free research online. Anyway, goal is to help out retail investors with free information synthesis; rather than just selling that directly to institutions. I'm sure this positive sum model might anger people along the way (who have expensive paywalls, or financial incentives) that might feel threatened by information democratization. But genuinely just sharing day-to-day thoughts for free. Very surprised by recent popularity but it helps me distribute compelling ideas to more people. And grateful Elon / X gave me an opportunity through X.

A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE: Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace). This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication. The bigger implication is not the contract size: But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial). Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract. Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers... This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)

Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)

I do see a lot of comments about "harvesting the leeks". And I hope my picks like LeaderDrive can help change that perspective around certain equities being good long term holds. I think my only Chinese listed pick was Innolight last year, and that's up triple digits to ATH? All my ideas come from a Western perspective (eg. institutional research from JP Morgan / Goldman Sachs I synthesize) and what US hyperscalers like $GOOGL or $MSFT require. And I do consider about geopolitical tensions + game theory all the time, such as with $AXTI. I think a foreigner's perspective brings a different kind of alpha here, and I'm excited to share how this plays out. Regardless, I'm excited to see how adventures in Chinese equities go! (also, I'm just 1 person posting thoughts throughout the day. there's a lot of conspiracy theories going around saying I'm some Chinese institution. and yes, English is my primary language, i typo sometimes since I post 20+ a day on mobile mostly).

Can someone tell me what caused $INHD to go up 3660.95%? https://t.co/qYFnOwUQFC

Nah, Jim Cramer is like the 4th Newton’s Law. Inverse Cramer just written into the laws of the universe. I’ve been bullish on $RDDT since $140. But Cramer was telling everyone to buy Reddit the entire time since Feb. So it’s been flat. https://t.co/gRHq6gRKTi

For people out there citing Bank of America quotes now about selling. Just remember: They said $EWY/ KOSPI (SK Hynix/Samsung) was an extreme bubble back in March. And blamed retail for the cause, then implied they should sell Korean memory equities: comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis, .com bubble, and Silver crash. Then shortly after retail sold their longs, memory rallied to all time highs. Institutions are not your friends. Usually when an unusual flood of negative news, they need liquidity.

Still think this US list from $MRVL to $ARM to $INTC was goated. Just as a recap if new followers were wondering what US equities I like. Especially because I've been talking about international companies recently. https://t.co/tZGLrFEGoh

I think the implications of JP Morgan's disclosure of buying 5.25%+ of $SIVE is a lot greater than people think. > $135M is pennies to US institutions. They can easily acquire 25% with their capital. They're just constrained by the amount of float that's available from retail to buy. > Signals to other institutions that other large institutions are buying up the float. Which triggers more institutional interest. > Given float is heavily shorted by Swedish Hedge Funds and random algorithmic ones. If large US institutions like JP Morgan are starting to buying the float, it's a blaring signal to start and cover. Of course, most of all, this is validating thesis of giving ideas to retail first to frontrun the institutions + the next CPO supercycle.

Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers. Just in the last month alone. First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers. https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM

Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.

I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector. I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique. Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk. Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times: -> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear). -> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced. In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover: 1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry 2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together 3. Mass production capability at low cost. For each humanoid made. Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling. Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components. As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors. But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China. So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains. Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth: Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March. But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year. So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market. So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these). Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.

I appreciate the objective coverage from 中国证券报 (China Securities Journal) on my LeaderDrive (688017) analysis! On the article: “A single tweet ignites the leading robotics stock, who exactly is the "White-Haired God of Stocks" Serenity?” Supply chains are global, and my research shows that Chinese companies like 688017 hold a dominant position over low-cost, mass production as humanoids scale up. Just a heads up: I do believe Leaderdrive’s position is very undervalued long term (next few years), if you weigh component costs vs. current customers vs. robotics TAM. But I don’t control any near term volatility, especially with macro climates. I’m flattered regardless by the institutional coverage of my track record of picking longs like $MRVL and my investment framework. As well as the recent support from the Chinese community.

On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx

Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO

Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line. $RPI is the perfect example: 1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist. 2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications. 3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI. 4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling. Earnings comes out and I was right. Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%). So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess. For stuff like $AXTI: 1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates" 2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing. 3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc. 4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS. 5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped). 6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls. 7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations. 8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc. A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up. With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing: 1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player. 2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here. 3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows). 4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts? 5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess. _ I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life. So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years. Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels. Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs. Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid. So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff. Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.

If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers. Especially if I’m a good enough investor. So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized). I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun. And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name. So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.

Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB. I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC? They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO) By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN. Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure. But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw). And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly). It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM? Downside risk? Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point. Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside. Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!". This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains. Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China. So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts. In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)... Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab? Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players? Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term. Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!" But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these.... Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work. I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.

How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta

Sigh. I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen. Enough retail holders got shaken off, and now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional). JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month to 5%+ ownership this month…

Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)

Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary). MC is at ~ $2.18B. $TSM COUPE mass production starts this half, H2 2026. and... they have plans for "Aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with subsidiaries Xintec". This is just very high-level, not too much public figures on volumes flowing to Xintec in COUPE. But this is just a asymmetrical guess on $TSM wanting to vertically integrate as much as possible and volume flowing down to their own subidary. Lot of the Taiwan CPO stocks like Foci, MSSCorp, Shunsin (foxconn advanced packaging/test), and co. are gradually being repriced... (disclosure: have exposure to everything above). But generally, architectural shift is going to be pretty sudden, and will show up in their balance sheets soon. Especially $TSM related companies (Xintec looks more compelling than VisEra, at least for this next few months). Foci I've already covered for FAU.

$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.

$RPI: $283 -> $983, up 247% from my thesis post. Quote: Strong AI-related demand was expected to result in core profit "significantly ahead" of market expectations. Turns out European Media’s favorite “memestock” with “no fundamentals” back in Feb. Was actually was backed by revenue growth from AI?

$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.

$RDDT was driving me insane. &gt; massive earnings beat &gt; just printing FCF since they’re too profitable &gt; 69% Y/Y revenue growth. &gt; biggest moat against AI vibe coding from network effect &gt; 91.5% gross margin. Was just flat for months. Glad to see it getting more attention. https://t.co/umUxYdXkz7

Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of the CPO supercycle. Starting to make more sense why there’s a lot of false news being published. Especially if they’re facing infinite losses?

This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining. And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to gamers. Fast forward to now, feels like Nvidia kinda ignored gamers… for AI, which is understandable. So this is a nice symbolic message for a return to Nvidia’s roots.

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.