@aleabitoreddit

Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI. $NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up. New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that: - In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment" - Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years" - He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unfamiliar environments using voice or text commands. - "It's possible that, say, a GPT-7 model released next year could directly crack the problems of embodied intelligence" - "The whole embodied intelligence industry has been shaken up after the release of GPT-6" Just looking at some benchmarks on robotic hand manipulation, "On the bowl task Astra placed the block in 19 of 20 trials, against Fable 5.1's 8 of 20". But for the puzzle task "Astra completed the insertion 2 times in 20 against Fable 5.1's 2 in 20"".. so we're getting there. But going from 2-3 years (potentially to a decade), and compressing that down to 1 or 2 years (to achieve 80%+ of tasks in unfamiliar environemnts) is a significant change in outlook.

So spent some more time to look at more DBS conference material: - "Two semiconductor giants, $AVGO and $INTC, both stated that breakthroughs in AI will keep demand for chip investment elevated for at least another 2 years. As current supply is insufficient to meet market demand." - "Current chip production capacity is already far from sufficient to meet demand, and $AVGO CEO expects the shortage to become even more severe in the future." (HKEJ) - "Regarding OpenAI, Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company because its underlying fundamentals remained strong. He argued that investors who sell based on a single short-term data point [$50B ARR] are "essentially no different from people gambling in a casino." (eg. Hong Kong Economic Journal): - Commenting on investors' disappointment in OpenAI’s latest revenue forecast: "by itself, not that bad" on their $50B ARR. (Business Times) And connected investors' disappointment to a failure to understand the business and excessive expectations like a casino. - Tan rejected the proposition that OpenAI was overvalued. It quotes him saying: "It’s almost like they are in a casino gambling" in regards to investors' unrealistic expectations and lack of understanding on OpenAI. - Hock Tan if OpenAI and Anthropic achieve widespread market adoption: their attractiveness would substantially strengthen their bargaining power when raising capital. But cautioned elevated global interest rates could make capital requirements a constraint for future growth. - The real driver, he said, is whether frontier AI companies can create models that generate enough value and returns to justify the buildout. (which is fair) - Most companies are wasting money on tokens. He also warned that most companies just waste money spending tokens like kids in a video arcade. This part was the most badly worded by Hock Tan given he's running $AVGO. But Western media commentary narrowed this down to: - "Shortage of capital now, AI Investors are gamblers". In the conference, Broadcom's CEO was actually defending frontier lab valuations and giving cautiously bullish statements about AI infrastructure demand. While citing rising interest rates as a potential constraint that larger revenue or adoption could overcome. Cherry picking quotes out of context disorts the actual messaging. TLDR: - Large and elevated AI semi demand, semi supply insufficient to meet market demand. At least another 2 years of elevated spend - OpenAI valuations defensible, people who sell based on extreme expectations for the company are like casino gamblers. - Tan stated markets had misinterpreted OpenAI's ARR because its underlying fundamentals remained strong. - Frontier labs if they achieve widespread adoption / revenue would strengthen capital raising, which overpower headwinds from raising interest rates. Lot of $AVGO CEO remarks looks heavily nuanced, which Western media coverage distored.

Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this. Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire… Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI. https://t.co/fHzsD9Na4s

Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price floors)... and their operating profit is already absurd. There's a consensus that shortage in 2027 will be much more severe than 2026... Even $SNDK expends gross margins to exceed 80% entering 2030. You're going to hear Acer and other CEOs that want memory prices to go down cite bear cases like CXMT/YMTC, and Chinese players. But just looking at supply procurement that $NVDA is doing + hyperscalers, demand visibility is absurd for the next 5 years. And by that time, cumulative FCF coming in from these take/pay + pricing floor contracts might exceed some of their entire marketcaps so it feels like there's some baseline. Near-term is always volatile (IV dropped a ton across $EWY to $DRAM to $MU), so people with call options likely got nuked, along with underlying prices. But if Samsung is 3x 2027E, has 5 year LTAs with 70% of capacity committed from hyperscalers, and price floors, it's kinda hard to see these names suffer a sustained crash... For optics: - $LITE is literally sold out into 2029, starting discussions into 2030. With demand visibility lasting into 2031… with hyperscalers largely funding the capacity buildout. Their 2028 Greensboro fab expansion was ~$5B in UHP laser capacity revenue alone, yet it’s basically allocated toward $NVDA (50%+ with options for more) and co from channel checks. Existing supply chain bottlenecks are extremely severe as optical content/XPU skyrockets entering 2027-2028. So everything from DSPs/TIAs, photodiodes, lasers, InP/SOI substrates, wafers (epi, SOI, etc) are expected to go brrr. And what does that imply to anyone else with enormous amounts of capacity coming online like $AAOI + $SIVE + $MTSI capacity expansion in 2027? Or other players like Sumitomo / Furukawa? But again it's not quite the same situation as memory since the BOM % is extremely low in a cluster... If micron/samsung raised another 2000% hyperscalers would go bankrupt. But doing that for InP substrates seems possible. Or a 100% increase on CW laser content. I actually thought $LITE was overvalued at $100B+ MC, relative to capacity expansion on your smaller optical players to their respective MCs. So I chose to position accordingly (But lumentum does deserve premiums for demand visibility). For the companies leading the charge like $NVDA / $AVGO / $MRVL: - Nvidia has 70% forward revenue growth FY2028 which is supply constrained growth. - Broadcom 100% Y/Y for 2027/2028 which is also supply constrained growth. - Marvell FY2031 upgraded guidance to $70B-$90B from $46B analyst projections... They all seem to be very happy.... and read through on demand for next 2-3 years is enormous (also echoing what $INTC CEO said today on the panel with $AVGO CEO). So you have overwhelming growth on memory + photonics + from the leaders... But the nuance is not everything in the AI supply chain get the same economic benefit. HBM/Laser/CPU/MLCC and other players in the bottlenecks look to be printing money. And seem to be the largest beneficiaries of the current bottlenecks. Test players are also getting price hikes + capacity allocated by players like $NVDA, but economic impact seems a tad lower than other players since forward P/E for many I modeled were still in the 45x+ range even if you hiked prices like 10-30%. As for capex intensive players... there's some like $IREN ($25-30B for 2027) that despite a deal with Anthropic ended up dropping. I don't think markets seem to appreciate players spending a lot of money + ongoing financing (think they're like halfway through their $6B ATM). Just some hopium for $IREN investors, $NBIS also signed a deal with $META at the start of the year (but markets didn't care at all, since Nebius dropped to ~$70-80 at the lowest point?). But did 6 months later, as the time to revenue inflection gets closer and you're past the ATM/capex window, markets would likely care more. I don't think it's irrational but at the same time, the fundamentals have improved from Mirantis acquisition to others. I also think it was known for awhile it was either OpenAI/Anthropic from CEO comments earlier too? But either way to be a more risk-off environment where funds seem to be rotating to larger names as a flight to safety. $CRWD / $PLTR as just two example, but my take is that the valuations of these rotations are reaching clown levels. And that certain AI supply chain beneficiaries in comparison are undervalued now. I was thinking markets would just rotate to names that are extremely profitable like Samsung or names that have <2X P/E, so it was surprising to see $KOSPI and some legacy memory players get sold off today. Since all of this is colliding with uncertainty about sht macro environments and renewed sustainability concern of AI capex/commitments from frontier labs like OpenAI/Anthropic from due to that FT piece recently. I've always been sounding the alarm about the contractual backlog OpenAI has with $CBRS, $MSFT, $ORCL and others earlier in the year. But OpenAI did just raise $122B or so , so I don't quite think they're at risk of going down anytime soon. I also don't think overall capex can just exponentially go up, but even if it stalls / hovers around a certain point or even drops... Capex toward certain areas like optics will still explode as hyperscalers fight over allocations when CPO scale up comes about, but might drop in others where more capacity comes online like test or DRAM. So it's a lot more nuanced than capex down = everything down or vice versa. I also slightly agree with community agreements that open weight models wouldn't lessen demand on AI infrastructure (otherwise $NVDA wouldn't be funneling funds into Reflection), but all the contractual obligations that Anthropic has might get messy if their models/company get cannibalized. Either way, I'd expect some of these frontier lab valuations to likely compress but I do think Jensen knows what he's doing though to avoid contagion. But basically: - Extremely difficult market now, can't just throw money at any AI supply chain company like $GLW and expect it to go up. There's cause for concern of rate hikes mixed with financing per $AVGO CEO but not to the point you just blindly sell off everything. Also I think markets are stupid and ties baskets together so that leads to mispricing + individual buying opportunities with certain chokepoints too. If capacity + demand is visible and forward p/e compresses like $AAOI to single digits off hundreds or thousands of percent growth from hyperscalers off $471m transceiver revenues and hundreds of thousands of monthly ELSFP capacity. Or $SIVE coming online with 100M+ laser capacity + multiple foundries with ASP hikes on lasers. I wouldn't lump them into other AI supply chain names in IP like $RMBS or others. My take is that AI supply chain beneficiaries with closer inflection points, demand visibility, and forward P/E compressing due to economic leverage would likely outperform medium term despite current volatility. TLDR: - Memory strongest risk/adjusted return with LTAs + pricing floors extending to 2030's + buybacks. - My opinion is that optical supercycle for 2027-2028 with CPO/NPO is going to look absurd relative to capacity coming online of smaller suppliers. - Overwhelming fundamentals/growth colliding with sht macro + media scares - Markets are stupid and groups things in baskets and sells them all off together or buys overvalued names, creating short/long opportunities I'd give a prayer to people on short term options given underlying drop + IV decline, but there could be a reversal... who knows. Most valuable thing right now is time.

Looks like one of you posted on $RDDT WSB… with a $1M $AAOI position. I’m laughing at the comments, even more amusing when my name pops up Might still be early if people think there’s “no moat” in lasers and that AOI makes no money. (wait and see Q2 2027) https://t.co/vG6Zl4LZHf

Woooow... $LITE CEO went out on Bloomberg today and stated: Lumentum is "effectively sold out through nearly 2029". From our perspective, "Completely Sold Out, there's no end in sight". With demand visibility from hyperscalers that carries them out into 2030, 2031. The implications of these statements are enormous for photonics and remaining laser suppliers with capacity coming online like $SIVE, Sumitomo Electric, to $AAOI. What a crazy bottleneck that's unfolding.

Can someone explain how media headlines about OpenAI’s ~$50B ARR… (vs. ~$70B from incorrect accounting comparisons with Anthropic) Somehow ends a 3-5 year laser shortage with $AAOI or memory shortage with $MU? Hint: it doesn’t. https://t.co/FiVsvg8I0G

$AAOI is... finally... done... With their $600m ATM program, turns out it's ~$105.36 average. I do think AOI outperforms $LITE, as long as they stop filing these ATM programs. Just due to their sheer magnitude of ramp with $471m/month transceiver revenue + 400K/month ELSFP coming up.

$LITE CEO: "Next year with the advent of CPO and NPO in 2027, our estimates are that we'll be undershipping demand... By 70%. Literally 70%. So we can only supply 30%. And this has caught us by supply. By 2029-2030, we get to some level of balance." Source: Global Photonics Economic Forum Day 1 (7:57:15 - 7:58:00) Any other players with laser capacity coming online are probably going to get more market attention soon.

"Potential FCC rules on optical transceivers more likely to come at 3.2T" - $LITE, $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE. Morgan Stanley met with Washington officials: - Restrictions would likely start at 3.2T modules made in China (800g/1.6T would be left alone) - Potential restrictions would likely keep laser market tight (combining US DSPs + lasers could meet the 65% US value threshold per MS) - Chinese modules could qualify if 65% of bill of materials is US content. Chinese modules using US DSPs and lasers are already near that level - Analysts expect the positive impact on laser pricing... to be more important than any broad redistribution of transceiver market share. - Analysts don't expect this to bottleneck hyperscaler AI buildouts, they name InP substrate supply as the key variable to watch (hello $AXTI ) TLDR: Component suppliers in general are really positive. Like $SMTC probably winner here for TIAs/drivers (I don't think this was listed), maybe $MXL for DSPs too. $AAOI another large beneficiary. $SIVE is high-key alpha for laser beneficaries since they have "tremendous capacity" coming online, and that points to US foundries (they haven't formally disclosed location). Since previous slideshows show 2 US foundries 1 Taiwan foundry (Win Semi) in terms of their capacity partnerships. And it's process of elimination. From CIOE Channel checks it does look like they're starting to work with Chinese pluggable players, (so they'd avenues moving forward as US supply chain component beneficiaries). Of course $LITE / $COHR would be happy. TLDR: Western supply chains for Lasers / DSPs / TIAs / others are already bottlenecked but qualified capacity becomes even more important.

$GOOGL Gemini 4 Argon benchmarks got released. Against GPT-6 Astra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 / Opus 5.5. Still coughing nonstop, so will comment on $MU / $JBL earnings later. I've always thought Google's internal models were stellar, but anecdotally, they seem to get hard nerfed shortly after public release... Maybe because of compute constraints? But yeah, looks like Google is back.

Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns... Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in: - $AAOI - Alchip - $MRVL (Celestial) - $ALAB - $CRDO - $JBL - $FLEX - $STM - $CBRS - $GNRC - $FN - TD SYNNEX - $QCOM - Gold Circuit Electronics And others.. If we look at the private placement amount for GCE in speciifc, it's like .36% of the company... Kinda small financially, meaningful strategically. Esp. since there were claims that GCE supplies ASIC-server PCBs to the four major hyperscaler CSPs... Regardless it's pretty funny to see Amazon to Nvidia start to own all the worlds leading companies. Since Amazon has exposure to the entire supply chain like PCBs now, optical fabric with Celestial, lasers with $AAOI, assembly from $FN to $JBL, ASIC partners like $QCOM / ALchip.

Everyone is asking "Where is Serenity" or "Who is Serenity". But nobody is asking... "How is Serenity"? I do read things from $AMD $8.2B acquisition of World Labs... but feeling pretty sick right now, so taking a little break. I remember saying physical AI + world models would major shift way back when, so maybe I should have invested in private companies at the time... Apart from that... other interesting news: - Some channel checks from ECOC was that $NVDA apparently secured 50% of $LITE Greensboro UHP laser capacity? And possibly contracts that allow them to secure the remaining capacity per Barclays. That's $5B in lasers (annual capacity)... so it's hilarious to see Nvidia go out and bottleneck the rest of the industry by doing this. But this just puts more strategic value on other merchant laser suppliers + more visibility for Lumentum. It's kinda game theory over allocation, since if you secure all the HBM, lasers, and others it inadvertently makes it much harder for competitors to scale their programs. - Then there's your massive $150B Nvidia authorized buybacks (just look at $AAPL when they did buybacks..) They're printing too much. - What's also interesting is that Samsung Electro-Mechanics is expanding their FC-BGA substrate capacity today... but customers are the one funding this. I also remembered $MRVL in SEC filings cited large body substrates as one of the core bottlenecks of their program (alongside $TSM sole source dependencies). So they also went out and did some other expansion agreements with related companies like AT&S recently. - OpenAI delaying Astra-6.1 October release over safety concerns just now. Nvidia also happened to launch an AI safety platform. I don't think this is meaningfully bearish that the models are just getting 2 good.

People really need to stop thinking about 5% yields over 10 years or 30 years. Even the inflation of my $SUBWAY sandwich has gone up like 12% a year. Today it was like $20 after tax, when it used to be like $5… 12 years ago. The best way to keep up with inflation of the things that matter, like Sandwiches, is equities like $SPY.

$AKAM signs $11.6B compute deal with Anthropic for accelerated CPU workloads demands over 7 years. $AMD to $MU should be happy to hear this… Akamai ests. ~$5.5B of capex to service the $11.6B commitment. Including +$1.7B of 2026 capex specifically to pre-purchase supply chain components like memory. So much for Anthropic/OpenAI calling for an AI slowdown?

If you're curious about the random $SPY / $QQQ candle: Just now, “US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade" - Reuters - "A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain ​oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices." - "Trump has said he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections to Congress on November.” Would make sense for Trump to want markets as strong as possible during Midterms elections…

$AAOI has finished a $500m ATM In April.. $600m ATM in June. Then filed another $600m in August. It's out of my control if management wants to abuse this trash repeated ATM structure. Instead following $AXTI like LTA prepayments and using that to fund buildout. Or taking private placements like $NVDA + Nebius for $2B and using that to fund buildout. Or convertible notes at 40% premiums. It's really hard for the stock to break out of $100 or $150 or $200 if there's $600M of selling pressure at those levels (and maybe expectations of future ATMs). I had the same criticism with $IREN with their $6B ATM, which is why it's been rangebound for half a year. And I'll say the same thing with my own thesis names too. I see $AAOI operationally very bullish for 2027, with $471m/month transceiver revenue. 400k ELSFP units/month entering 2028. The revenue ramp is absurd and can compress to single digit forward P/E. But I find it hard to get excited over funding infinite ATMs during the buildout, when you're sacrificing opportunity cost with names currently profitable like $SNDK or Samsung. I think a lot of retail investors conflate stock performance with how a company is doing operationally. $AAOI is capitalizing on a bottleneck with high demand visibility, but stock has been going nowhere near-term with repeated ATMs. I do expect AOI to strongly outperform (especially in 2027) if they stop issuing these stupid ATMs.

Wow $NBIS relative outperformance is wild. Back in 2025 I wrote my Neocloud thesis on $IREN to $CRWV. But I made the decision months later to consolidate it all into Nebius... Despite the the hate from FinX back then. Very interesting to see Nebius up 6% even during sector drop… After Oracle was reportedly seeking payment protection if Project Jupiter misses its 2028 opening. With Oracle: "seeking to protect itself from potential cost increases related to a large DC ​project in New Mexico by sending a force majeure notice" per Reuters. Lot of new people like to piggyback after it’s up a lot, but there was a lot less people bullish back in 2025. Especially during the period with a ton of institutional short sellers back in December. I still think markets might be underestimating sum of parts growth, even if its core business grows like crazy 2027+ onwards.

I’ve actually entered positions in many tiny Korean companies recently… That actively supply memory, test, machines, etc. to $MU, $SKHY, Samsung, and others like $SMTC + US companies. It’s pretty interesting what you find in the $30-$250m range for optical components, CPUs, memory, and others that are inflecting due to AI. I don’t share these names publicly since risks/volatility is enormous. But one or two going from $40M -> $400m makes the risk/reward worth it for me personally.

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.

I guess I need to start calling $SNDK or $LITE Super Intelligence stocks. Thanks Trump. https://t.co/x7tJcKjfsc

I feel like traditional "value investing" went into hibernation. Before it was finding a 10x -12x P/E company like $UPWK or $PYPL, Dominoes, Pepsi. Or even a cheap Japanese company below book value. Then just enjoying slow growth but buyback/dividend appreciation from their cashflow. Now you can find 1.8x runrate P/E company like $ESMT that grew revenue 605.24% Y/Y. And the main thing you need to argue about is duration. Or a 16.2x trailing P/E Sumitomo, despite having way too many hyperscaler LTAs in AI from fiber to lasers. AI created much bigger medium-term anomaly, where "value investing" went towards high growth, "deep value" companies.

Wow Bitcoin + Ethereum pulled pretty extreme recoveries. Looks like $HOOD / $COIN / Crypto is back? On-chain equities trading + regulator exemptions probably put a lot of fuel into the fire for the sector. That aside... crypto is usually a great indicator for high-beta AI equities believe it or not (they tend to frontrun broader market drops or rallies). So overall market risk appetite might be coming back despite the rate hikes.

All right $META Muse is cooking. I can hear all the $AMD, $INTC, and $ARM CPUs vrrrring in the background. Along with the memory + components (NICs, SSDs, DRAM) needed for all the browsers/VMs When I ask it to do a bunch of long form tasks… Intel CEO also said recently that CPU demand is so strong they can only support 50% of what customers need, so there’s some signals there. I’m also curious how much $AMZN or $NBIS is involved with running Muse, or if Meta hosts everything inhouse. Kinda an ADHD post but Meta beat my expectations with this release. Will keep trying it out

I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time: $AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33% CPUs go brrr $SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61% Lasers go brrr $EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23% Memory go brrr $NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.03% | $IREN +1.73% Compute go brrr Probably most material developments were CPU:GPU ratio expectations + CPU demand (from new AI releases). As well as optical developments from ECOC 2026 (as seen with $MRVL PR + others) Still a lot to catch up on.

The main duo $SKHY and Samsung are having a fun day. I'm still long memory (eg. $EWY / $DRAM ) since if capacity agreements extend 3-5 years... and your analysts model 2.8-3.3x 2027E. Risk/reward is attractive over time. But I think legacy memory a very interesting trade currently due to ASP hike potential.. It also just so happens these same companies procure memory from even smaller memory companies (that might have higher sensitivity)... So if you want to, you can track $PSMC wafer allocations, and find some interesting companies that likely replace $MU discontinued legacy memory through Alliance or supply directly to Samsung. Won't mention them on X, but just throwing out some research ideas.

The internet is now cooked soon? With $RDDT to other social media like X more at risk due to AI. You can have new decision models like Jev making autonomous computer interaction at near $0 cost. (With actions becoming more human-like/adapative) Then LLMs outputs influencing behavior or leading conversations. So at scale, a malicious actor can spawn 50,000,000 bots just roaming the internet, with LLM prompts convincing people + manufacturing public opinion. The main bottleneck would be phone number, IP, account age, maybe hardware for compute + device identifiers (which is extremely cheap still)… rather than LLM cost. I’ve already anecdotally seen short sellers use AI bots to spread negative misinformation about companies like $SIVE. Or bots market ____ account as the best one to follow in the comments. Or as seen with X uncovering 200+ bots manipulating debate about datacenter public opinion. But the scale might be exponentially worse soon. Scary to think about.

While everyone is focused on Bessent/He Lifeng talks today. Or $LITE / $MRVL / $SIVE at ECOC optical conference... I'm just curious why my followers can leave 2K+ comments if I post in Chinese... But if I share something in English: I only get 50 comments. Feels bad anon

Just floating out an idea to $AVGO: If you lock up $SIVE laser supply for next few years since you need “more laser capacity”. You could unintentionally cause bottlenecks across your main ASIC competitors: Like $MRVL (Celestial), AlChip, Mediatek, GUC (Ayar CPO), first gen deployments. Where many also seem to be aligned with your best friend $NVDA… Maybe it’s worth discussing spending spare change to lock up the remaining merchant laser supply?

So on optical vs. photonics... Memory like $MU / $SKHY is in it's current supercycle. -> RBC channel checks for example projects 80-100% HBM ASP hikes for 2027. -> Per $NVDA ER, Hyperscaler capex goes up in 2027. Then you have 68% of hyperscaler capex per Trendforce going to DRAM/NAND. -> 50-70% for next 3-5 years already allocated toward LTAs. So supercycle is here... demand visibility is high and the price hikes are still ongoing. As photonics like $SMTC to $AAOI, I expect to cook heavily in 2027 since we're already seeing widespread optical shortages in 2026. Plus, you're going from $67.7B in 2026 (per GS) to $131.4B TAM in 2027 for optical modules... Which impacts the DSPs/TIAs/lasers/fiber suppliers before CPO scale up really takes off in 2028. I don't think we'll ever see the same scale of memory price hikes, but I do think there's a lot room for more for MC growth in optical supply chains (given smaller starting point eg. $1B CW laser supplier vs $1T memory maker). But still there's room for price hikes on laser content (eg. $15–$20 for 4 70 mW lasers per GS note) since starting point is really cheap... and one component, like cheap InP substrates can break hundreds of billions worth of supply chains downstream. We're already seeing laser price hikes tho from CIOE channel checks confirmed by both Innolight / $SIVE from the Serenity's follower channel checks. So entering uncharted territory. TLDR: Messy thought but, memory has near term earnings power, midst of current supercycle. The next "memory" ASP hikes I'm seeing is clearly legacy memory (DDR2/DDR3/SLC NAND) from cascading bottlenecks. It just looks to be an extension of the memory theme. Maybe MLCC looks similar in terms of earlier cycles. If we were to track supercycle impact on the supply chain in the space... I'm confident next thematic one looks to be photonics entering 2027.

TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.

Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory... Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes. Price hikes projections expected for H2: - SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1 - High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1 - ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3 - DDR2: +35-40% in Q3 - LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3 - DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising As a consolidated view... Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026. Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes (eg. +45% DRAM wafers from $PSMC) So I'd expect Q3 earnings for a lot of the legacy memory fabless companies to cook

Reminiscent of $NVDA w/ $LITE + $COHR: Foxconn is now considering joint investments to avoid upstream material shortages. Foxconn Interconnect Chairman identifies CW lasers and fiber as the biggest bottleneck in photonics. Very interesting to see these two themes reiterated across industry commentary. Almost like a certain Anime character on X was right about CW laser bottlenecks.

$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody believed the link until there was an actual press release. Anyway, proud to see this little company growing up

Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow. 50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million. They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike. https://t.co/saulhxBF3g

$SIVE highlighted in a Digitimes Asia article on takeaways from this years CIOE! This highlight is actually extremely positive, as it describes $SIVE as "expanding beyond their traditional client base and investing heavily in expanding capacity to benefit from growing AI-related demand" This highlight from basically their first CIOE + the recognition for investing heavily in extending capacity to adress AI related demand. Seems like CIOE was a very positive event for $SIVE

$CCXI releases their Digit 5 next-generation humanoid. Thoughts? https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5

Some color on current memory environments for the $MU / $SKHY bros: "There is zero risk of memory prices dropping" per Team Group GM Gerry Chen. - Memory module makers have received notices warning of drastic cuts to their 2027 supply allocations. Some could receive 50% or less of their 2026 allocation. - Upstream manufacturers have reportedly sold out nearly all of their 2027–2028 capacity. - DDR5 supply, in particular, is projected to come in at less than 80% of previous expectations. - Chen expects prices to continue rising 20–30% quarter-over-quarter into 2027 (source Digitimes) - Chen's commentary on $MU is that even before their new MegaFab capacity comes online Q4 2027 at the earliest, orders for 2028 through 2029 are already fully booked. So that there's virtually no relief in sight to current shortages. Sharply lower allocations, fully booked capacity into 2029, and future price hikes doesn't quite sound like the AI buildout is slowing down.

I've seen comments from Jim Cramer today supporting hedge funds that short Leopold's "nonsense" $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix type calls. As well Cramer calling $CRWD a "Must Buy". I'm not sure if Jim Cramer sees a $241B company labelled "Cybersecurity" and thinks of it as safe... while ignoring all their fundamentals. But with Crowdstrike, you have a ~145x FY2028 fwd P/E company, growing revenue 26% Y/Y. That Cramer thinks is a "must buy". And then you turn your eyes to the AI capex beneficiary theme that Leopold is long on. With names like $SKHY / Samsung in $DRAM... Both FY2027 ~2.8-3x fwd P/E off analyst projections. -> Samsung LTAs to 2031 (70% capacity) for durability... -> Minimum price floor + no price ceiling type contracts from SK Hynix. -> Memory shortage much tigher for the next year. -> DRAM/NAND % of hyperscaler capex goes higher (est. 68% per Trendforce) -> 2027 hyperscaler capex projections all hiked. Then with $SNDK, 50% FCF margins, 80% gross margin projections into 2030. Only Situational Awareness position I'm in disagreement with is $CRWV due to debt interest eating FCF, but I can make a similar bullish argument with $BE, $INTC, $AMD, and others. Not quite sure about short-term, but over the medium run: It's hard to not see Leopold's positions pulling an Inverse Cramer due to overwhelming fundamentals.

$IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown: “Even if models never improved from here… just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years” I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare. Guess what happened? These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout. Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.

NOR flash “Severe Supply Shortage” with high density continued increases of 90-110% for H2. I wonder who sells both high density NOR and SLC NAND? *cough cough, $ESMT* For H1 hikes: NOR: +100–120% SLC NAND: +130–150% For H2 hikes: High-density NOR: 90-110% in H2 SLC NAND: ~70–75%. Obviously there’s others from Winbond / Macronix / Gigadevice, but my idea and position with ESMT is that it’s the largest beneficiary of the shortage relative to size. (they sell NOR: >256Mb) The moderate bearish part is: “For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online. Price increases for consumer-grade products are therefore expected to moderate” However, this update is overwhelmingly bullish for earnings of legacy memory players. Let the ASP hike games continue.

I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab. -> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition. Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself 2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown). It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability. Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons" 3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given. It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes: -> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China. If they wanted to slow down, they could have done so themselves at any point in time: Yet everyone is still fighting over the scarce resources to run AI as seen with memory procurement from Samsung going all the way to 2031. Or the $NVDA / $AVGO supply constrained 70-100%+ Y/Y growth protections. So I suggest people unfollow the clowns on X that predict AI stocks from $NVDA to $TSM to $MU will crash for engagement. All this does is cause retail to panic short term and hand over the keys to the kingdom over to others.

Tech people in real life: I have shares in “ $TSLA, $GOOGL, $SPCX. “ People on my X feed/comments: - Leveraged Micron, Sk Hynix calls all the way from $1M to $28M down to $4M - calls on short dated tanker freight futures because $AXTI 3000% 1Y returns wasn’t enough. - Long $PLTR short $LULU because inverse Burry indicators - Long Swedish high beta CW laser suppliers for CPO because it reminds them of $NVDA bottlenecking EML - “AI is going to end human civilization” so this is a signal for longer AI capex duration + trade wars so long $EQR cause tungsten. Gap between finance X and normal finance/tech people is also insane. I can’t help but feel proud that I’m partly to blame.

It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.

What's the next $BWET if you guys have ideas? Need more weird ideas like short dated tanker freight future ETFs... I didn't know this existed until last week. https://t.co/kguL6svZNj

@aleabitoreddit You missed the $BWET tanker shipping bottleneck due to Drumpf's war for Netanyahu. $10 to $700 in a year.

Looks like Situational Awareness is back: Sources say Leopold bought options in $AMD, $BE, $CRWV, and $DRAM. And was active in other stocks such as $SKHY, and $SNDK. Little surprising since option IV across the board is quite high. https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO

Haha I feel bad for the guy at the $SIVE booth. Genuinely thanks everyone for helping crowd source channel checks, really appreciate it! Think the most interesting update overall from Innolight channel checks was explicit confirmation that lasers across 70mW-200mW power range have seen ASP going up. Sivers also disclosed they raised prices. That should support gross margin expansion for laser suppliers in future quarters as higher pricing flows through.

与 $SIVE团队的对话 — 深圳CIOE 2026 Sivers 展位 我去了 Sivers Semiconductors（ $SIVE） 的展台，他们的展台比较偏僻，甚至连一件展示样品都没摆，只有简单的一张介绍书，但我在跟 $SIVE 团队的对话中得到一些有趣的内容： 问： 欧美和中国很多企业都在做光通信产品，从未来产品接轨的方向来看，Sivers 真正的第一优势到底在哪？ Sivers： 从我们的供应链和器件来看，我们特点非常鲜明：别人很多用的是 Single Chip（单一器件），单一器件每次只发出一束光，你要三个不同的光谱，是在三个不同 temperature（温度）下发出来的； 而我们做的是 Laser Array（阵列器件）——在同一个 temperature（温度）下，单颗器件就能同时发出 8 束光来！ 这就是我们产品的特色 ─── 问：那Sivers $SIVE 产能现在跟得上吗？ Sivers ： 在这个领域，没有谁家产能是足够的，每一家的产能都欠缺（limited）。 你从根源上讲，最底层的 Substrate（基板/衬底） 本身就是缺的。底层材料都缺，谁要说自己产能无穷，那纯属胡扯 更深层的道理在于：GPU 与硅相关的产品，因为它的 volume（体量）非常非常大，研发速度要快很多。 它和光通信（光连接）的迭代速度是 3 比 2——GPU 速度是 3，光通信器件只能产生 2，光器件的速度总是跟不上 怎么追？只能通过多赛道去追：一个细管速度很快，我就用粗的管子慢慢去跑，勉强能够跟上，为什么一直短缺？因为 GPU 发展太快了，GPU 三个月就迭代一次，光器件是一年、半年才迭代一次！ 就是这么个道理 ─── 问：那 Sivers 现在的客户体量大概到什么层次了？ Sivers ： 我们是搞 R&D 技术的，具体客户商业合作受 NDA（保密协议） 严格限制，不能对外说 ─── 现场去展台交流的大多都是serenity @aleabitoreddit 的粉丝，坦白讲，Sivers 团队的合规意识极强，受限于 NDA，涉及具体客户体量、订单排产等“商业机密”，他们不会多透露 但如果你是想探讨光子学的技术与行业演进，Sivers非常乐意与你交流，也极其坦诚🫡🫡

Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro. - $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations) - $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027. - $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training + inference from internal investor documents (WSJ). - Even the Pentagon (US gov) is looking to fund the AI buildout, with $5B potentially into Fluidstack. What sectors do I think capex flows hit the hardest? Photonics + Memory. Trendforce for example est. DRAM and NAND to be 68% of hyperscaler capex in 2027. So when all that memory procurement spend hits the balance sheets of $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, $SKHY with 70-80%+ margins. I don't think these companies care about short term macro scares. And when your leading memory companies are all allocating capacity for DDR5/HBM or high end memory, with little visibility on legacy memory supply coming online. What does that say about the durability of ESMT/Etron/Winbond and others? And when your optical content/GPU goes up for rubin ultra + $META / $GOOGL TPU v9, etc. Alongside TAM eg. $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 optical module forecasts. Who benefits from supplying all that lasers during a shortage other than $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR? I think the overwhelming fundamentals + growth of some of the AI sector companies will outperform macro.

Wow, HBM reportedly drove up AI accelerator/card prices by 20-50% in China. So $SKHY, Samsung, $MU, should be happy to hear this: - Huawei has raised indicated pricing for the Ascend 950DT 20–50% above quotes from just 2 months ago - Cambricon's upcoming 690 is reportedly +20–30% Reuters stated that HBM acquired through grey market channels in China can cost several times regular pricing. As someone who is long memory, I'm happy about memory causing this much inflation.

Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read: 1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030 So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI. 2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027. Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030. So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration. Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL capex, and short term FCF headwinds (but massive projected profitability post 2028) 3. In an extreme scenario, unemployment of knowledge workers goes to 17.9%. With 11.9% economy-wide unemployment "At the individual level, it means coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse, which are less exposed to AI." GG computer science majors. 4. Non-cognitive wages: +33.6% vs. baseline in an extreme scenario. So your electricians/construction-type labor becomes extremely valuable? (but this isn't factoring in humanoids yet...) Whereas -11.5% for knowledge workers in 2030 vs. baseline. 5. Aggregate capital income is ~81% higher than it would have been without AI Productivity explodes -> aggregate labor income barely changes -> essentially all of the incremental GDP accrues to capital. So that makes ownership of capital rather than labor... so equities like compute, power, semis, networking, robotics, etc. become pretty important... TLDR: - Economic growth go brr - Jobs that require thinking = unemployment + lower wages - Physical labor = more important, like electricians. - AI equities go brrr.

Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM." I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus. And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi. Just for reference: For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones. For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets." We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings. So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026. Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...

$NIKE 只需要做一件事，就能挽救自己的品牌形象 https://t.co/mhV2qUSSM3

Special thank you to awodias for the crowdsourced channel check all the way from CIOE 2026 Shenzhen! - Confirmed that $SIVE is actively engaged with Chinese pluggable makers - $SIVE has raised lasers prices given tight supply - 70mW lasers seem the most tight given association with 800g pluggables It’s pretty cool that our little community reaches all the way around the world. (Also thank you if other people did channel checks and I missed it, this was the first one I saw)

$SIVE — quick channel check from Sivers’ booth at CIOE 2026 today. Stopped by Sivers’ booth and spoke with their Sales Director for China, Korea & Japan. A few takeaways from our conversation: 1/ China customer engagement Q: Are you currently in contact with Chinese pluggable/transceiver players? A: Yes. This is Sivers’ first time exhibiting at CIOE. They are currently setting up their China office and are just starting to work with Chinese pluggable players. They wouldn’t disclose any customer names. 2/ CW laser pricing Q: What are you seeing on laser ASPs given the current supply environment? A: Supply is very tight, and Sivers has raised prices. They wouldn’t disclose the magnitude of the price increases. 3/ Where is supply tightest? Q: Which CW laser products are currently the most supply-constrained? A: 70mW is particularly tight, which they associated with 800G pluggable applications. They also said tightness is fairly broad, including both 70mW and 100mW. 200mW has not reached mass production yet. 4/ Sivers’ own capacity Q: Does Sivers currently have enough supply/capacity to meet demand? A: Yes. They said they currently have sufficient supply and are actively expanding capacity. 5/ A few observations from the booth Sivers’ booth was very small, with only two people there when I visited — the Sales Director for China/Korea/Japan I spoke with and another representative whose title was Country Manager. There were no physical products or demos on display. The booth was noticeably more minimal than larger semiconductor/optical vendors at CIOE such as GlobalFoundries, Tower Semiconductor and Credo. Given that this is Sivers’ first CIOE and they are only now establishing their China office, my impression is that their China presence is still at a very early stage.

Goldman Sachs in their recent note upgraded their global optical module market forecast to: - $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026 - $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 - $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for 2028 For $NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased its modeled optical modules per GPU: 1.6T: 0 -> 2 3.2T: 3 -> 5 GS also raised their 1.6T and above forecast for 2027 by 61%... so that's also very material, with 80% silicon photonics penetration rate estimated. So more optical content per chip = a lot more CW lasers, more SOI substrates, happy optical companies.

Okay I know this is US time and this is a Taiwan stock... But I really am starting to think $ESMT (3006) can cook like $SNDK. And I’m excited. So hopefully in a few months, people can something say similar... FUN FACT CHAT: Did you know.. 1 old DDR2 memory chip is.. ~$0.96? (from LCSC data) Obviously different per spec since some can be $2.5... But if you 3x ASP Hike this. That's a whole... ~$2 added to final BOM cost. So about the same cost as a $COST hot dog. It goes into things like a D-Link security camera, maybe like $33 final cost... and adds like $2. (which people won't mind) But... 3X ASP hike to ESMT? Is very, very material. That's just for one product category, and there's many others from SLC NAND (eg. +120–170% H2) to NOR Flash products for H2 ASP hike projections. And my favorite thing is, they've already shown they're willing to partake in the price hike games (seems like there's a long way to go)… Currently they make ~$111M net income a month from July earnings ($2.8B MC), which annualized is like ~2.1X P/E. *I have positions. So... I think $ESMT has room to cook like masterchef Sandisk. TLDR: - Repeated rounds of price hiking = seems absurd for the company's net income... but has potential due to starting low component cost. - Reminds me of early $SNDK but for other segments (legacy/niche memory).

$NBIS is back, and coming in hot with a new partnership with $PLTR. Palantir also named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. The implications are potentially significant considering Palantir’s existing relations with the US Gov + Enterprises. https://t.co/izCDuR4r6Q

$AMZN signs a new deal with $QCOM, giving Amazon the right to buy a ~$4B stake of Qualcomm through warrants. At this rate.. Amazon will be more of a semi ETF than $NVDA? Given their existing equity/warrants with AlChip, $MRVL, $ALAB, $AAOI, and others. This of course is linked with up to $60B in milestone revenue from Amazon/Qualcomm custom silicon partnership. Good for both companies, moreso Qualcomm.

Wow, $HOOD has taken minority ownership in Crypto‌.com. It does feel like the future of the finance industry is slowly consolidating around Stripe/Robinhood. Especially after the successful expansion of Robinhood Chain, Prediction Markets, and Credit Cards/Banking. https://t.co/FXZTmVaIo5

So $INTC is raising PC CPU prices by 10% apparently in October per Digitimes, which I think markets might appreciate. The legacy memory trade also just going brrr from August revenues: -> ESMT revenue up ~+605% Y/Y, 16.4% M/M Which is interesting given gross margins also rising tremendously too. -> Etron revenue up +525% Y/Y, +6.4% M/M Chairman says he sees growth momentum in memory to extend through 2028 or longer, potentially 2030. (which is very positive read through for ESMT given what Etron sells) *own ESMT/Etron -> Winbond revenue up +289.43% Y/Y, up 2% M/M Their president says memory supply and demand are expected to be even tighter in 2027 than in 2026. -> Macronix revenue up +218.5% Y/Y, +5.4% M/M Says SLC NAND, eMMC, NOR remain tight (kinda known there). So... if you think your 80%-100% type revenue growth players are insane. Check out legacy memory (operating income is even more hilarious). There's a few more where ~ modeled forward P/E values of like 2-3 from my estimates. I personally find the theme a better value investing type idea than your 16 P/E no-growth dividend companies.

Glad $SIVE is attending CIOE Shenzen and hope my followers can go too! If you want my read on current landscape: -> Chinese pluggable makers like CIG (剑桥科技) are facing severe shortages in 70mW-200mW lasers. If you look at filings from CIG, they claim "substantially longer delivery times and deposits to secure capacity” along with statements of shortages. -> Innolight and others were also looking to secure multiple laser suppliers with LTAs recently from their filings. On the US side of things: -> $COHR was a major merchant laser supplier before, but largely withdrew from the market after rerouting them internally. "I do not see any time in the near future where we would be selling Indium Phosphide lasers externally." From their ER transcript. And then likely turned into a buyer in an already supply constrained market... where "over the long term, we will have some portion of our datacom transceivers that will be supported by external sources." -> $AAOI not really known to be a merchant supplier, but said same thing about laser capacity being rerouted towards transceivers. And having to turn away customers for lasers. -> For $LITE, they still supply lasers but stated: "We are commanding a significant price premium" for CW lasers $LITE Wupen Yuen: "wherever they can get the laser source, they will use that solution to support their build-out." So hinting... about customers just finding anything available due to shortages. -> $MTSI has no meaningful capacity online now, but they're already stating customers are approaching them with urgency to secure CW laser supply. -> Trendforce reported $AMD and hyperscaler CSPs are aggressively going out to secure CW laser supply to avoid future bottlenecks. And then you have Europe... Where $SIVE is coming online with "tremendous capacity available now" from their foundry partners. With 100M+ laser capacity Q4 2027, and maybe if you look at their 2:1 ratio implying ~200M targeted laser capacity from external foundries. They also happen to offer the same power range (70mW, 100 mW, 200mW) as the ones currently in shortage by pluggable makers in China. There's a massive void to fill, so this dramatically increases the chance of converting customers. (esp. Supported by Lumentum statements) My speculation was that some of the 6 active pluggable engagements were from China? Which is why they're attending the conference. So to any of my Chinese followers, maybe you can ask a few questions like: - if Europe is a laser source geography, if Innolight/Eoptolink/Cambridge are considering $SIVE. - if they're seeing ASP hikes in lasers, and what CW products are hardest to obtain If you are attending CIOE in Shenzhen!

Interesting, thought to check how many years $SIVE has attended CIOE Shenzen (seeing as they will be there Sept 9-11) and from my research it seems like they haven't since attended since 2019, when they went as Sivers Photonics. I might be reading into it too much but it could signal a push in their efforts to get customers/more fab capacity. $SIVE has always been a regular at ECOC the European optical coms conference, but they are making the long trip to CIOE this year as more pressure to focus on silicon photonics comes in from investors...

Uhh chat, did we accidentally AI bottleneck-pill Warren Buffett's $BRK.B successor Greg Abel? https://t.co/FnHS87s6XN

New report from Bloomberg on $IQE: “indium phosphide substrates is emerging as a key risk for the semiconductor industry.” I wonder who could have guessed this last year with $AXTI? https://t.co/ETW7Y2Pz7z

I'll let you decide that for yourself since that was an illustrative laser revenue modeling off $SIVE 100M CW DFB laser/year target. But... do you want to know the main reason I like laser companies so much? They don't just have to stay laser companies... just look at $LITE! If we look at Lumentum's previous Cloud Light acqusition (pluggables)... it enabled: - more than a 5X+ expansion in served opportunity inside DCs. From Lumentum's OFC deck: - ELS expansion from UHP laser chips was 2X TAM opportunity.. But selling lasers alone... just from one UHP laser fab was $5B in projected revenue capacity (their fab expected to ramp in early 2028), if we apply similar 55-65% CPO laser margin quotes by $AAOI. So lasers by itself is very profitable, and despite industry capacity expansion, there would likely still be a demand imbalance for lasers. Isn't that pretty cool? So it's not quite just modeling component value for certain types of companies since they can keep growing into other products. And you have new overlapping cycles eg. NPO/CPO/1.6T pluggables increasing demand. So I'd personally assign higher premiums for laser companies over types of suppliers that stay in the same layer.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think is a fair revenue multiple you would assign to $SIVE if their recent expansion is able to deliver on $625M-$1.25B of annualized revenue?

Is there any other industry... Where every investor is cheering for shortages and price hikes? SED reported today that: Samsung / $SKHY "stockpiles have fallen to less than 10 days of supply, and a severe shortage could emerge next year, according to a new forecast" KB Securities said that the memory market next year will see "the tightest supply conditions in history" KB Securities projects memory's share of AI infrastructure costs to expand from 40% this year to 57% next year, with others like TrendForce placing next year's figure at 68% (total hyperscaler capex, pretty wild forecast attached) "Both stocks have fallen 38% from their peaks over the past three months, pushing their price-to-earnings ratios based on next year's expected results down to about three times." Likewise, commentary around Phison stated they expect extremely tight NAND supply in 2027, so hard to see memory flooding the market or prices collapsing next year... They gave some color that "soaring NAND prices have forced some Chinese consumer module makers to liquidate inventory, giving Phison opportunities to buy lower-priced stock", so it does show some price declines can coexist with broader shortages. TLDR: KOSPI + read through for other names like $MU / $SNDK might be happy for 2027 given demand causing shortages + infra spend share increase.

Got curious and decided to track which thesis of mine were still up 100%+ YTD after the recent drawdown: 1. $AXTI - InP substrates 2. $NBIS - Neoclouds 3. $MU - Memory 4. $INTC - Foundry 5. $LITE - Photonics 6. $IQE - Epiwafers 7. $AAOI - Photonics 8. $GDRZF - Venezuela 9. $AEHR - Machines 10. $EWY (volatility + underlying) 11. $RPI - AI orchestration 12. $SOI - SIlicon Photonics Substrates 13. $SNDK - Memory 14. $SIMO - Memory 15. $MRVL - ASICs 16. Nanya - memory 17. Unimicron - substrates 18. $ARM - CPUs 19. $SIVE - Photonics From H1 2026, around 19 names across several themes up 100%+ still from the selection of winners. Since many like $TSEM / $HPS.A / $LPK / $ALRIB fell out of the range. (obviously not all are green like Shunsin / $XFAB and disappointed by performance). Regardless, glad a lot of my ideas turned out decently, rather than just being known for one like $AXTI. To the point the Chinese community gave my investing style a name "Perilla Leaf Theory". Again not too sure if my new ideas replicate this performance again in H2 2026 or 2027... For H2, my new thesis was on $CCXI for humanoids/downstream physical AI shift and ESMT for DDR2/DDR3/legacy memory. But I'll keep sharing my core ideas and thought process for free so people can poke holes or debate it until things get validated.

Oh cool! $SIVE also made it there on cnyes too (leading Taiwan financial media)! The English translation might be off a bit, but this was summarizing Sivers surprising 100M+ CW DFB annual laser capacity expansion, ~ operational Q4 2027. And how given historical ASP from previous year presentation slides, it could translate to $625M-$1.25B capacity revenue ceiling at full utilization. Sivers might be of more interest given its partnerships with local foundries like Win Semi. And since its downstream partners like Ayar (Mediatek / Alchip CPO partner) are heavily investing in Taiwanese optical supply chains.

I asked OpenAI Astra Ultra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 Max to make me a 5x-10x return type portfolio in 1 year. Burnt a lot of credits, and the results are in: OpenAI: - $KYTX (autoimmune CAR-T results) - $PRQR (human RNA-editing datasets) - $VSTM (KRAS cancer-drug) - $CNTB (asthma and COPD) - $RANI (oral biologics) - $IVA (MASH) - $SILC (networking + inference hardware) - $AMPX (batteries) - $EOSE (batteries) - $ZVRA (rare-disease drug growth) Anthropic: - $INO (respiratory papillomatosis) - $CAPR (PDUFA for deramiocel) - $GOSS (seralutinib) - $SLS (Phase 3 binary) - $IREN (familiar face) - $WULF (familiar face) - $OKLO (nuclear) - $SMR (nuclear) - $RGTI (quantum) - $QBTS (quantum) *Disclosure don't own any of these aside from 1 share in IREN, not a recommendation, just TLDR of LLM output for educational purposes. So very interesting results: Our beloved AGI Astra prefers really obscure biotech I've never heard about. And a few familiar names like $EOSE and $AMPX. And Fable... yeah idk, feels like it learned a little too much from /r/wallstreetbets and X but maybe it's right, who knows. Anyway no judgement, I'll save this and revisit it in a few months. If one of them actually delivers... I'll be impressed.

I’m not sure how OpenAI was likely holding off their IPO to 2027. Because they had concerns about a $1T valuation 3 months ago. Then Anthropic investors go and say **** it, lets one-up $SPCX and IPO at $2T next month? https://t.co/wkMuzkCrzd

Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery. Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed! Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others. But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does. I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect: - There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end. - $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising. - $SNDK expects 80% gross margins to continue into 2030… (welcome to S&P 100) - and once again you have long term visibility into 2031 now with companies like Samsung Memory is very really volatile… some of my positions are up 270%+, so I find it a bit easier to hold through volatile periods. But regardless, operating fundamentals doesn’t always align with short term price movements. Same concept can be applied to other sectors.

我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究, 举一反三. 或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于 CW 激光器供需失衡的思路, 应用到 A 股. 很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票, 并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！

Let me get this straight chat… you have: $NVDA 70% supply constrained revenue growth projections (would be 100%+) $AVGO AI revenue growing 100%+ Y/Y for next 2 years from mid ~$50B -> $230B OpenAI Astra blowing away AGI benchmarks and starting to train itself. $MSFT / $GOOGL / $AMZN stating compute demand imbalances into next year, with Nvidia projecting $1.3T spend for 2027. You’re seeing this flow through supply chains from Samsung 70% capacity LTAs into 2031 to Powertech advanced packaging capacity 100% booked into 2030. Even your legacy players like Winbond are starting 2029-2030 allocations. Markets always have temporary drawdowns and macro scares… but… How can anyone not think AI stock go brrr?

From my channel checks, it appears Korean retail is firmly siding with $HOOD over the $AMC CEO. Korean sources find the prospect of 40x leveraged Samsung / $SKHY a powerful enough argument to win the tokenization debate.

So... here's my take on US / China tensions: You have European monopolies like: - $ASML (EUV) - $SOI (Photonics-SOI) - Zeiss SMT (ASML EUV supplier), Trumpf (ASML EUV laser supplier) Japan has many near/complete monoplies like: - TOK, JSR, ShinEstu, Fujifilm for EUV photoresist - 90-100% share - coat/develop equiment with Tokyo Electron -90%+ - actinic EUV patterned mask inspection (Lasertec) -100% share - EUV mask blanks (HOYA, AGC) ~93% share - arf photoresist - Nittobo T-Glass - ABF film (Ajinomoto) - lot of misc from specialty glassAGC, wafer thinning/grinding/dicing with Disco and others. Then there's US allied countries like Taiwan eg. $TSM, Korean memory with $SKHY / Samsung. US has EDA with Synopsys/Cadence, $LCRX / $KLA, $NVDA, and many downstream giants. China has many chokepoints such as gallium, graphite, refined lithium, and others + benefits from cost mass production over many future supply chains (eg. robotics). If I had to give my opinion on US / China supply chain wars: - US is trying to achieve Western independence from China/Russia rare earths + materials supply, but took too long (should have been a priority last decade). - China is trying to eliminate strategic chokepoint dependence and forcing US reliance on Chinese supply chains (as seen with Wf6) It's a race on who achieves supply chain independence first to gain leverage over the other. And fun thing is, AI acceleration kinda throws an unknown variable in terms of speeding up independence. As well as open source efforts (eg. RISC-V), which China is heavily focusing on. So it's a weird paradox where US should theoretically support open source hardware development + open source AI, but it's also being exploited against them. From a Chinese perspective, they're pressuring US supply chains by targeting Japan, which increases Western supply chain reliance on China. And going down the list to eliminate competitor chokepoints internally by throwing subsidized spend into R&D. Or by acqusition as seen with China's acquisition of EU leaders like Ficontec. America... they had all the cards initially, but I think they got too comfortable, and took too long to focus heavily on rare earths (recent funding is a good thing). The earlier tariffs went the wrong way (socks, furniture, other exports), and pissed off allies in EU/Canada too. Which could have been used for leverage for major chokepoints. But maybe they'll realize soon enough why allies are important. Anyway, we'll see what happens, just my two cents about ongoing dynamics. In an ideal world, everyone works together... TLDR: Just some shower thoughts on how there's an unspoken race on who achieves supply chain independence first to gain leverage over the other.

China reportedly halts some rare earth shipments to US. Not a new blanket ban, or any mention of specific rare earths. But… if I had to guess, Japan is usually a decent indicator of what’s actively important since Japan: - “sources virtually all of its dysprosium and terbium from China.” - gallium, dysprosium, terbium and yttrium from China to Japan all stood at “zero” in June. - Shin-Etsu Chemical has reportedly suspended acceptance of new orders for magnets containing dysprosium. - Global magnet producer Proterial had received no export licenses for Chinese dysprosium as of last month The Reuters piece mentioned yttrium, gallium, terbium, indium phosphide, and tungsten as historical examples (doesn’t say what’s being targeted now). On a side note, $LYC.AX is becoming one of the most important alternatives, as Japan has locked up 75% of Lynas’s medium/heavy rare-earth output. (8 tons of dysprosium + terbium in Q1) Something fun I also read is that Japan’s deep sea resource is enormous (est. at 16 million tons of rare earth rich mud, but commercialization is post-2028) But in the meantime, China seem to be choking off feedstock that would materially affect Japan. Since you’ve already seen the WF6 Japanese industry stressed from tungsten related halts. And indium/others earlier this year that is used to make InP substrates from Sumitomo/JX. But still gradually allowing exports directly eg. $AXTI -> $LITE to allow US/China trade to continue, kinda disrupting that from time to time, then using that as leverage. It’s interesting since Japan has so many different monopolies like ABF, so we’ll see if they do anything back. But if I had to give a prediction, it does look like the US has a countdown timer until China becomes self-sufficient on semiconductors. TLDR: - rare earth disruption to US - China actively targeting Japan for upstream feedstock (which goes to Us supply chains), probably want to focus on that - many many second/third order effects from disruptions - we’ll see what US/Japan wants to do back, but supply chain wars are being fought upstream.

Just an update to my DDR2/DDR3 memory idea with ESMT. They reported August revenue (Taiwan sometimes does monthly reporting): June revenue: ~$153M July: ~$214M August (new): ~$249M vs. $35.3m (last year) Monthly revenue has increased ~63% in two months despite reportedly similar 2026 wafer allocations to 2025 (MoneyDJ report). The profitability is already really high as seen with July's monthly revenue (where they reported ~$109M net income). So if pricing holds, and revenue increases, that would be very nice... Now a lot of US people don't really care since it's in Taiwan, but if you're in the $MU / $SKHY, $SNDK trade. Just educational purposes, it's a second order effect where your leading memory players prioritize AI/DC higher end memory and reduce allocations to older generations (causing shortages). But... DDR4 since prices going up too much, so older gen memory products (DDR4) are getting redesigned with older gen memory (DDR3). And DDR3 products with DDR2. And so on. Causing cascading supply chain shortages. (DDR2 for example is boring/old memory used for cameras, printers, automotive back in the 2000s and not many ppl make them anymore). And even your old DDR2 suppliers like Winbond are gradually withdrawing from the market too... So ESMT is the beneficiary of DDR3/DDR2 shortages. TLDR: ESMT August revenue was ~$249M, up from ~$214M last month.