Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns... Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in: - $AAOI - Alchip - $MRVL (Celestial) - $ALAB - $CRDO - $JBL - $FLEX - $STM - $CBRS - $GNRC - $FN - TD SYNNEX - $QCOM - Gold Circuit Electronics And others.. If we look at the private placement amount for GCE in speciifc, it's like .36% of the company... Kinda small financially, meaningful strategically. Esp. since there were claims that GCE supplies ASIC-server PCBs to the four major hyperscaler CSPs... Regardless it's pretty funny to see Amazon to Nvidia start to own all the worlds leading companies. Since Amazon has exposure to the entire supply chain like PCBs now, optical fabric with Celestial, lasers with $AAOI, assembly from $FN to $JBL, ASIC partners like $QCOM / ALchip.

Everybody wants a 10X stock. Almost nobody can sit through the plummet that comes first! $PLTR: 87% drop (2021–22) $AMZN: ~90–95% drop (1999–2001) $NFLX: 82% drop (2011–12) $TSLA: 65–75% drop (2021–23) $NVDA: ~66% drop (2021–22) $CVNA: 99% drop (2021–22) The 10X happens after most people have already sold. Volatility is the price of admission.

All right $META Muse is cooking. I can hear all the $AMD, $INTC, and $ARM CPUs vrrrring in the background. Along with the memory + components (NICs, SSDs, DRAM) needed for all the browsers/VMs When I ask it to do a bunch of long form tasks… Intel CEO also said recently that CPU demand is so strong they can only support 50% of what customers need, so there’s some signals there. I’m also curious how much $AMZN or $NBIS is involved with running Muse, or if Meta hosts everything inhouse. Kinda an ADHD post but Meta beat my expectations with this release. Will keep trying it out

I’ve been running a barbell approach: cautious and aggressive at the same time. On the cautious side, I still want some relatively stable names with more manageable swings — $NVDA as one of my top two positions, plus $TSM, $GOOGL, $META, and $AMZN. Those give the portfolio ballast and long-term compounding. On the aggressive side, my biggest bets are $PLTR and $AMD, along with a few other high-volatility names I share with the community. That’s where I’m looking for asymmetric upside, knowing the swings can be much sharper. The goal isn’t to pick one style. It’s to keep enough stability that I can stay invested, while still putting real size into the names that can move the needle.

TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.

Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read: 1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030 So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI. 2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027. Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030. So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration. Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL capex, and short term FCF headwinds (but massive projected profitability post 2028) 3. In an extreme scenario, unemployment of knowledge workers goes to 17.9%. With 11.9% economy-wide unemployment "At the individual level, it means coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse, which are less exposed to AI." GG computer science majors. 4. Non-cognitive wages: +33.6% vs. baseline in an extreme scenario. So your electricians/construction-type labor becomes extremely valuable? (but this isn't factoring in humanoids yet...) Whereas -11.5% for knowledge workers in 2030 vs. baseline. 5. Aggregate capital income is ~81% higher than it would have been without AI Productivity explodes -> aggregate labor income barely changes -> essentially all of the incremental GDP accrues to capital. So that makes ownership of capital rather than labor... so equities like compute, power, semis, networking, robotics, etc. become pretty important... TLDR: - Economic growth go brr - Jobs that require thinking = unemployment + lower wages - Physical labor = more important, like electricians. - AI equities go brrr.

$AMZN signs a new deal with $QCOM, giving Amazon the right to buy a ~$4B stake of Qualcomm through warrants. At this rate.. Amazon will be more of a semi ETF than $NVDA? Given their existing equity/warrants with AlChip, $MRVL, $ALAB, $AAOI, and others. This of course is linked with up to $60B in milestone revenue from Amazon/Qualcomm custom silicon partnership. Good for both companies, moreso Qualcomm.

Let me get this straight chat… you have: $NVDA 70% supply constrained revenue growth projections (would be 100%+) $AVGO AI revenue growing 100%+ Y/Y for next 2 years from mid ~$50B -> $230B OpenAI Astra blowing away AGI benchmarks and starting to train itself. $MSFT / $GOOGL / $AMZN stating compute demand imbalances into next year, with Nvidia projecting $1.3T spend for 2027. You’re seeing this flow through supply chains from Samsung 70% capacity LTAs into 2031 to Powertech advanced packaging capacity 100% booked into 2030. Even your legacy players like Winbond are starting 2029-2030 allocations. Markets always have temporary drawdowns and macro scares… but… How can anyone not think AI stock go brrr?

The 100x was made in the dips you sold. Why do so many people fixate on daily price swings when a stock is already in a long-term uptrend and its fundamentals keep improving every quarter and every year? U.S. stock market history makes the cost of that habit clear. Over the past 2 decades, several major technology companies delivered more than 100x: $NVDA: roughly 500x $NFLX: roughly 275x $AMZN: roughly 150–160x $AAPL: from about $2.30 to around $325, or roughly 140x on price and about 150x with dividends reinvested $GOOGL and $MSFT still compounded powerfully over that stretch — closer to 25–35x — but the true 100-baggers were the names people kept selling because they “looked expensive” or had dropped 30–40% that year. If you simply trade in and out, you are likely to miss the parabolic part of the move. I don’t trade in and out because my goal is to create wealth, not to make pocket money! I keep dollar-cost averaging, and I add more when institutions are willing to offer huge discounts — usually 2 times a year — and when retail fear is at its peak! @cantonmeow @sheslee @tonylee80 @Jimmy_tesla_01

Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes

$AAPL is now an important AI company apparently? -> "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of Apple Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning -> Anthropic is renting Apple Mac mini units from $AMZN to complete similar AI tasks I've never seen a company win so hard by doing nothing. But whenever I see Apple + AI, I think of my beloved $RPI. Apparently Anthropic is working with Raspberry Pi now for their new model Hardware Standard, as of the 27th. There's nothing yet about Anthropic/OpenAI buying Raspberry Pi devices for similar tasks, but maybe some OSINT researcher can do some digging.

$XPEV carves out its robotics unit and raises >$900M at $6.3B+ valuations. This is following’s Unitree IPO, which now has a ~$35-$36B MC. Then there’s $NVDA / $AMZN backed Agility… at a $2.5B premoney valuation. Which I’d argue is actually further ahead in commercialization than Xpeng. Regardless, humanoids + physical AI sector funding is really taking off.

$MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company. "The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used ​with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage ​and move information ⁠across networks." Which could translate into ~$120 billion ​in revenue through 2033. Marvell also has separate warrants with $AMZN after their Celestial acquisition (for purchases of photonic fabric). Remember the good times when Jensen said Marvell would be the next $1T+ company? Seems Nvidia knew Marvell was "networking" its way into all the hyperscalers with warrants.

Volatility Holes + Descending Blue Ribbon = Early signs of bottoming. (August 19, 2026) Here are four other examples that show how a volatility hole combined with descending blue ribbons helps my community time the early bottoming process — especially amid retail fear and skepticism: 1. $SNOW 2. $DUOL 3. $AMZN 4. $ABCL A simple chart with a reliable indicator is all my community needs. Every time this signal appears, I will highlight it in my daily or weekend posts marked “MUST-READ.” Even though I can’t tell you to buy or sell, the titles should speak for themselves! @cantonmeow @chad_ventures @sheslee @tonylee80

Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.

Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.

uhhh... the Unitree IPO is more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors. The demand for pure play humanoid companies is absolutely enormous? I'm personally in the US-based Agility Robotics club (Softbank, $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, etc), at $2.5B premoney via $CCXI. And my take is that Unitree likely opening at $30B+ (from pre-ipo perps), might bring the leading US players some more attention in a week or two. Regardless that's just absurd demand.

Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU

As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.

Just a TLDR of this week: Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute. -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr. Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over. -> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike. Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble. -> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀 Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks. -> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%

Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.

Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.

It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is at ~$4.3B pre-money and publicly available before the name change. At closer pricing that $AMZN, $NVDA, SoftBank, and Foxconn vaulted it at. Yet some end up paying 4-5x prices of already hiked private investor rounds for exposure… I’m convinced if Agility raised a very small private round at $39B as well from $2.5B (which it definitely could), to set a valuation anchor. Investors would be foaming in the mouth for a private allocation, just due to psychology rather than underlying fundamentals. We’ve also seen this anchoring with $SPCX recently at $1.75T. Peak market inefficiency? Or lack of knowledge from retail?

Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April. Which listed: 1. Figure AI 2. Agility Robotics $CCXI 3. Apptronik 4. $TSLA 5. Boston Dynamics 6. Physical Intelligence 7. 1X Technologies 8. $AMZN Robotics 9. Covariant 10. Skild AI As the National Champions of the United States robotics program. "The United States leads the world in where robotics is heading: Fundation models, OpenAI-style scaling laws applied to action, autonomous vehicles. While losing the race on where robotics is shipping today." Then it frames: 1. Rare Earths Exposure: from Neodymium for motors to samarium-cobalt for high-temp applications as a critical vulnerability. 2. Actuator dependency. Series elastic actuators, quasi-direct-drive motors, and precision reducers overwhelmingly sourced from Japan, Germany, and China As one of the main vulnerabilities alongside Manufacturing velocity/data collection cost/regulations. Then their take was: "With at least six well-funded US humanoid companies competing for a market still in early formation, we expect at least two significant consolidation events (acquisition or merger) in 2027". With Logistics / E-commerce (like $AMZN / $FDX) and Automotive from $GM to $FORD as being the immediate top use cases for deployment. I think it's just interesting to see a lot of my points I've been talking about reiterated by research firms. Regardless, I do think it's going to be a major frontier race between the US and China. Agility Robotics (which I own), Tesla, Figure, and Apptronik as leaders representing the USA. Competing against Unitree, AGIbot, Ubtech, and others in China.

Looks like there's a high power cylindrical cell / BBU cell shortage (aka: bottleneck): - Samsung SDI supplies the cells to Simplo, which assembles them into BBUs for $META to $AMZN. - As demand from data centers has increased, production of Samsung SDI's cylindrical cells has also risen sharply. - Industry sources said Panasonic, Samsung are experiencing supply shortages for BBU cells. So main beneficiaries imo look like: - Samsung SDI (KRX: 006400) / Panasonic Energy as cleaneset winners - Murata (6981) / this keeps showing up everywhere with MLCC and others lol - LG Energy (KRX: 373220) / incoming There's not really much direct US players? But adjacent read through like $VRT, $ETN or $BWA / $ENS. Not quite in my domain emphasis cup of tea though. I wouldn't conflate this as all shortages having a massive TAM, but there could be opportunities...

Nikkei - $JD E-Commerce Giant CEO warns "Robots Will Replace 700,000 Delivery Workers". Per FT's earlier piece last month: The 700,000 delivery personnel working for the firm will be replaced by robots, highlighting how rapid automation has become a new threat to China's already severe job market. Liu Qiangdong, revealed that the company has signed contracts with approximately 120 schools to retrain its delivery workers, enabling them to transition into new roles such as robot repair and maintenance... "Beijing has started to track AI’s hit to jobs as a national priority." This follows other corporate strategy reports like $AMZN, of avoiding 600,000 future hires with robots. But it's very interesting to see the shift in worker roles to robot support. Maybe $DASH to $UBER to $MELI, we'll all start to see this rollout following China. There's a lot of retail disbelief over humanoid/robotics commercialization. But feels like the direction industry is heading down is pretty clear.

Bruh, when I first tried out ChatGPT around 2023, I thought it LLMs were garbage at coding. 3Y later, Mythos is considered a modern day “nuke” for cybersecurity. People keep saying humanoids can’t do X or Y task today like plumbing or DC wiring. No sht, but it’s about where things are heading over the few years. And it’s clear to me and VC apparently that we’ve just hit the inflection point where soon: majority of labor you think is human-only, can be replaced by robotics/humanoids. You're already seeing this too with internal strategies: Remember $AMZN leaked strat planned to avoid hiring 600,000 workers by them with robots like $CCXI? If you see past the "assistive robotics" public image framing to prevent protest, it's clear the goals is maximizing, opex efficiency. The main areas I think are safe however are regulation bound (eg. Medicine), ultra specialized labor, or require human/emotional connections. But I think you'll be blown away by the rate of change when frontier technologies become national security races between US and China... especially when China is currently in the lead.

Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player. Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors. NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization. No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV: Which would value Figure at $156B... While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today. So my personal preference is $CCXI.

Just dropping these 3 slides from Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) presentations. For the US robotic program doomposters: 1. “75% of parts” - sourced from the USA 2. Just eyeballing the graph, looks like <$30k BOM mass production. People were just looking at the ~$145K cost. 3. 10,000 RoboFab capacity, and they build in Salem/Pittsburgh/Fremont (USA). So looks like majority US supply chains with targets of <$30K mass production It does help they’re backed by $AMZN / SoftBank / Foxconn / $NVDA as investors to get this done. Just personal thoughts as a shareholder in $CCXI (NFA): My personal biggest fear were US humanoid leaders like $TSLA were just building out their entire supply chains in China. So US robotics could just be export controlled/halted down the road. eg. South China Morning Post: ‘Optimus chain’: Chinese suppliers form the backbone of Tesla’s humanoid robot initiative and engaged with hundreds of Chinese component suppliers. And that Western companies are not able to lower costs to a competitive level + are forced to use Chinese components. I'm still not sure how they're going to do it but if Agility can achieve those mass production targets with that BOM cost in the USA/West. It would be a great validation for Made in America US robotics programs. IMO the top 5 US humanoid programs right now in terms of commercialization potential are: 1. Tesla Optimus 2. Figure 3. Agility Robotics 4. Boston Dynamics (yeah KR parent) 5. Apptronik Tesla is a $1T+ company. Figure is private and valued around ~$39B. Owning Boston Dynamics through Hyundai is a bit messy. And I’d prefer not to invest in adversarial programs just as a personal preference. So I’ve been personally excited for Agility to be listed as early as September.

Just a random thought, leading US humanoid players strangely me of the current LLM dynamics: Agility ( $CCXI ) kinda feels like Anthropic for robotics. With $AMZN and $NVDA heavily backing it, ingrained with $GOOGL Deepmind (like TPUs). And it starts off with enterprise commercialization. Optimus is kinda off doing its own thing like xAI. Supported by Tesla/Elon and his visionary roadmap as usual. Figure is like ChatGPT With Microsoft/OpenAI investing (kinda like Microsoft), then ended up kinda competing them by building their own VlA and setting them behind. But ends up top 2 leaders anyway. Boston Dynamics is Gemini Kinda started the entire humanoids thing like transformers with backflip videos. With R&D supported by $GOOGL but somehow let everyone else leapfrog them in commercialization. And then there’s $NVDA just chilling, silently powering the entire humanoids ecosystem.

Yep! Agility Robotics is currently my favorite humanoid/robotics position. They're set to be listed on NASDAQ via $CCXI as early as September (per Digitimes). Just for informational purposes: Their V4 humanoid robot is already operating in sites like Amazon. And have V5 slated for mass production next year (they have a 10,000+ /year capacity). Investors include Foxconn, $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank, and now Serenity. I've been personally waiting for humanoid exposure for awhile (Agility is set to be the first US pure-play listed one) to the point I was actually planning on investing in Unitree's IPO. But I'm glad now I personally have a compelling alternative now since I prefer to invest capital to build up Made in America supply chains (75% of their components are US-sourced from investor desks). There are risks assigned to SPACs such as listing delays, or cancellation. But excited to see what happens next with developments. I do hope this encourages other frontier companies to go public early on.

$GM cuts 1,000 workers and replaces them with 50 robots (Jun 22nd report) Reports also show GM is working on a deal with $NVDA on factory robotics. This is industry validation for robotics, since it likely demonstrates increased opex margins + efficiency from employee automation. Especially from companies like $AMZN to General Motors with assembly/warehouse lines that have high headcount. I think the technology is already here and use cases are already proven. Robotics/Humanoids are just pre-scale right now. The wording from large companies is “assistive robotics”… But in all honesty, it’s here to automate away the human workforce and increase profitability. I don’t think companies want to be paying insurance, salaries, etc. when robots can do a better job, and 24/7, so very sad to see potential job losses in the future from robotics automation. Whether people like it or not; seems like the inflection point for robotics is here.

Robotics is next. Both deal count and investment amounts are skyrocketing per pitchbook March data (source: a16z) Good thing is: the same AI DC exposure often has cross-exposure to humanoid ramp. Like DRAM/NAND with memory (on humanoid inference/storage) or DFB lasers with photonics (FMCW LiDAR vision/sensing). Right now most exposure is upstream component parts… or programs within large players like $AMZN or $TSLA. So global IPO season H2 into 2027 for pure play humanoids/robotics companies is going to be fun.

Don’t quite think “siphoned off” is the correct term. It’s capex for massive revenue increase or margin increase down the line. $AMZN is probably my favorite hyperscaler right now and example to give. Amazon’s headcount is absurd, like ~1.57M. If the capex goes into automating their workforce with LLMs. Then transitioning into physical AI: - things from self driving (deliveries) - robotics (Amazon warehouses, shipping automation). + revenue increase from building out AWS compute with Trainium and possibly selling chips too with the Neocloud strat. It’s probably the clearest path forward compared to every hyperscaler out there. $TSLA optimus use case targets is extremely broad as a pitch, but Amazon already has a specific reason to scale robotics for internal opex optimization. As for $GOOGL, probably 2nd right now, AI capex was necessary for defending its Google Search moat Gemini from ChatGPT They also have Google Cloud revenue with efficient TPUs + can sell TPUs like Nvidia GPUs. Gemini user volumes keep going up (despite the lack of contention in frontier benchmarks); and AI strategy to be working for ad optimization too. But there’s less clear paths with physical AI stuff ig? Microsoft and Meta are still trying to convince the market why capex is necessary, (we’re kinda seeing that in effect with Meta’s 30%+ Y/Y revenue growth), but doesn’t look like they’re convinced. As for market narratives, Microsoft Maia seems to be behind, their AI development was stunted from OpenAi investments, so sentiment is kinda in the ground. But think that will change down the road like the 180 with Google. I’m sure all the hyperscalers are seeing the leader effect right now: If you have the leading LLM, people will keep using it. That LLM gets smarter from all the training data; and that gap might be structural. Which is why everyone is kinda rushing the buildout right now, but for some the immediate incentives seem obvious.

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution. Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence. The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing. Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies. The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead. So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference. As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT. More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL. But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV. Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs. But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing. Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing. OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot. So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year. I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt. And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals. As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy. Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028. Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well. OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet. So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. And so on… Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.

$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now. I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT. High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with hyperscalers. Capacity projections at $90 for 2027 timelines were bullish. Now at $150, the story from 2025 is coming together with all the laser fab bottlenecks, GS optical TAM projections, Made in America efforts, $NVDA / $AMD discussion rumors. The only thing holding them back is ATM after ATM, and now another $600m ATM… I personally think it easily rerates once the mechanical selling pressure stops. And personally think it could be a 4-5x return in 12-24M. Also I don’t know who calculates those forward p/e’s on the screener websites but they’re all extremely off.

Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.

$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.

Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so well. Keep in mind: everyone on X was saying “scam management” with $AAOI back at $20-30… Or “scam company” with $AXTI at $12. FUD was pretty extreme. Feels like dejavu again… going long on the next CPO architectural shift like $SIVE or Foci? And getting the same comments. We’ll see if my CPO longs play out the same way like Shunsin does with Innolight or $SIVE does with $LITE. Either way all of those are now up hundreds to thousands of percent.

$AMZN (May 15, 2026-daily chart update) Volatility is the gateway to wealth creation. The latest volatility hole remains fully in force. Let’s see if $AMZN can break above it and ignite the next leg higher. My initial price target is $300, based on the inverse head and shoulders pattern I shared with the Tier 3 community in my 2025 weekly insights — when the stock was still trading near $200–$210.

Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent. If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate. NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick. Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.

Just to add to the very positive $SIVE news amid MSCI likely tens of millions of inflow in 2 weeks: $AMZN has a new private placement with AlChip. Probably implying design wins with future Trainium. If you don’t remember… AlChip was Ayar’s lead customer. And $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar. So implications for $SIVE, is enormous piggybacking off of Amazon’s ecosystem growth.

Now that I think about it more… Nextronics (8147) is a pretty undiscovered supplier to robotics supply chains like $AMZN too. So as Amazon scales up, so does their revenue (it’s only ~$200m mc so it should be material if they’re hitting 38-40% gross margins). I was only focusing on $NVDA CPO supply chains as their largest growth vector earlier. But I do think Amazon’s robotics program have the simplest route for mass production since each one they make internally lowers opex, cuts headcount, and improves profitability. And their whole ecosystem should benefit.

@Dog_Ziller I actually think $AMZN for robotics is extremely underrated. Since since there’s immediate practical upside to lower opex + headcount for automation. But for general purpose $TSLA, Unitree, Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agibot, Agility, and others should do well.

I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher. The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous. $MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals. Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected. But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3. Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized. Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk... I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.

Just putting it out there with the Goldman Sachs $NVDA supplier note. There’s a very interesting ~$210m MC company Nextronics (8147) that I ended up taking positions on following GS. That supplies CPO connectors and Cage Thermal Modules to Nvidia CPO supply chains. They’re also in $AMZN supply chains and Humanoids. And massage chairs too. Just thought I’d share an interesting idea (NFA/DYOR), I’ll do a BOM analysis later, but it looks very material relative to MC as Nvidia’s CPO program scales up. Of course risks are multi-sourcing/getting designed out, but there’s probably a reason why GS flagged this micro supplier multiple times among $4-10B+ companies.