Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.

$SMH (June 5, 2026-daily) Since early 2024, I’ve been telling my community that $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM, and $AVGO are must-holds. If you want real success, you need to build and maintain a larger position in at least two of these names. Fast forward two years: if you’ve held through the volatility and bought the dips, you’re sitting on serious gains. Even if you don’t own individual semiconductor stocks, $SMH remains a core staple. The bullish uptrend looks unstoppable. My daily charts have delivered four clear buy/accumulation signals, and my favorite volatility hole indicator is the best guidance — a break above the upper boundary could 99% ignite the next leg higher!

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins” “Demand for … networking is simply insatiable” Also very positive read through as well for the $LITE and the other players. But for TPU margins it goes down at scale, which is understandable. - “they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility.. runs all the way to 2028 right now” positive read through on overall AI demand since it’s 2026 now… and orders are out in 2028 - The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and will start Delivery in the second half of 2027. for our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. $META custom AI program h2 2027 timelines - “Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. you start putting a lot, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi die with lots of hvm.” Just for the GW modelers. - “For OpenAI we have delivered silicon and we are on track for production late 2026” OpenAI custom program timeline - “If you ask about 27 or 28 that will continue to grow. We expect in fact 28 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 27.” More about the demand ramp, go brrr - “Google, that we expect a diversity of sources from them” Mediatek (2454) primary beneficary, maybe $MRVL. Already expected though Google doesn’t sole source so they don’t get bottlenecked. There’s quite a lot of AI demand visibility way until 2028, which is bullish on the AI sector as a whole. Regardless, Broadcom ends the week +0% lol. TLDR: Strongly bullish AI demand, especially networking. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up, but demand curves 2026-> 2027 -> 2028.

Yes, we talked about why aggressive sizing in some stocks is necessary. This is what I’ve learned from the very wealthy in Asia over the past decade through my observations and interactions with them. Without proper position sizing, meaningful wealth creation is almost impossible. Holding just 100 shares in the right stocks — even in names like $AMD, $NVDA, $AVGO, $TSLA, $MU, $MRVL, $ARM, or $INTC — won’t change your lifestyle or retire you. When we’re in the right stocks, we should size up aggressively during big discounts and continue to add when bullish signals flash across the screen. Maybe Cat @cantonmeow will share a chapter on position sizing in his new book. It really takes us 3-4 weeks to fully explain this.

$AVGO (June 2, 2026-daily chart update) Over the past 2 years, I’ve shared more than 40 bullish signals on $AVGO alone since $130. Out of all the indicators I use, the Volatility Hole stands out as my favorite — it has delivered over 95% accuracy. Don’t ask me if you should buy now. Simply follow the signals, block the perma-bears, tune out the X noise, and follow the right people — your portfolio will thank you later!

I hope you’ve all been paying attention since my April post. For the past 2 years I’ve been pounding the table on $AVGO from $130, sharing over 45 bullish signals along the way. Massive congratulations to some of my community members who took their last buys in early May when it was trading at $415-range — well done, you’re up big! $AVGO now at $493 pre-market!

The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?

I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.

There's a new $SIVE short seller with 0 clue what they're talking about. 1. $MRVL Celestial is likely buying lasers directly with $SIVE as the laser supplier, not through $POET. As they've been identified as a likely direct customer since 2023. An analogy is if O-Net / Enablence / Sivers, and O-Net worked directly with $SIVE (which they have) but vertically integrated away Enablence. They're still likely buying $SIVE lasers. 2. $SIVE is clearly the likely $AAPL supplier for lasers. I use the term likely, because although markets are 99% sure, the BOM is confidential. The short seller is claiming it's TASC, which I've already identified multiple times as an Apple supplier. But falsely they're conflating two different generations of Apple Watches with photodiodes and lasers for glucose monitoring to say $SIVE is not a supplier. 3. US NASDAQ listing is likely incoming soon after the new board meeting and shareholder vote. Upgrading accounting standards and having immaterial changes doesn't mean anything. 4. Ayar labs hasn't scaled up yet. Ayar specifically listed $SIVE as their primary laser supplier in their website. With their executives going out on statement that they couldn't built their products without $SIVE lasers. Claiming $SIVE isn't shipping volume to Ayar when their CPO products haven't ramped is stupid. 5. There's zero leak around news for listing. Hilarious coincidence and management has always been pursuing NASDAQ listing since last year. Short sellers keep repeating this disinformation to try and profit. 6. I've never seen such hilarious BS around Win Semi volume scaling. High confidence in SpaceX and $AVGO supply chain critical foundry. 7. Using arguments from authority saying they know an engineer and then having them confusing architectural differences between $LITE / $COHR and $SIVE is hilarious. Regardless -distorting financial statements -conflating different gen architectures and timeline NRE - reiterating false accusations to profit off short term sentiment is likely going to see them turn into a long as CPO/Jabil partnerships volume ramp.

$AVGO (June 1, 2026-daily chart update) I’ve been charting $AVGO since $135 in 2024 for my community, even though not many showed strong interest at the time. For the past two years, I’ve consistently emphasized one core theme: semiconductors should form a dominant position in any well-balanced portfolio. I’m still very bullish on this sector for the months/years ahead. But good advice often falls on deaf ears! $AVGO has been a textbook bullish stock. The signals I’ve shared have proven highly accurate — but only for those patient enough to hold for months. That’s exactly how real wealth is built: by staying invested through the noise instead of jumping in and out and missing the major rally. I’ve highlighted the latest buy signals on my daily chart for my community. Learn to use these reliable signals next time and block all those market noises if you want to succeed! A big congratulations to all $AVGO shareholders — especially my community members who have been steadily accumulating for the past two years. Your discipline is paying off.

> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs competitors like $LITE ($1.2B mc) Turns out it’s likely sole source for companies like $JBL and primary suppliers for Ayar. > to doubting their revenue opportunities ($2B MC) Turns out they got 77% pipeline growth in just a few months > to doubting their partners like Win Semi’s ability to scale (we are here) Anyone who thinks Win Semi… one of the worlds most important foundries for $AVGO, $LITE, SpaceX supply chains… can’t scale capability by 2028 is a stupid bear. We’re at the point where US retail investors acquired the float off Swedish investors. But I’m expecting US institutions to find a way to shake out US retail like they did with $NBIS or $RKLB before the next supercycle.

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish: - $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess. - More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.” CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already. But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet. - tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds. - “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”… So that’s volume ramp for space - U.S dual listing progressing smoothly No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in. - “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.” Too much demand in photonics - “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well” Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers) TLDR: We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?” To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.” To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought. Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted. Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history. As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.

RT @dannycheng2022: Never underestimate the power of simple charts and the beautify of genuine long term investment—these parabolic stocks are likely to go even higher. $ARM $INTC $AAOI $MRVL $AEHR $SNDK $MU blockstack:native $AMD $AXTI $AVGO I've been charting these outperformers almost daily for months now, whenever I can, to keep my community informed. I’d rather not spend time on laggards — it’s not the best use of either of our time.

How I Built a Massive $AMD Position and Why I’m Still Holding Strong At $76, I missed the absolute bottom in $AMD — and that’s okay. At $110, I began aggressively building a much larger position after my own research and following my signals. I entered with 18,000 shares at 2 private banks because I’ve always believed that a decent size in the right name matters far more than perfectly timing the exact bottom with a tiny position. At $130, I continued adding shares all the way up to $160, right before the stock surged to $220. Some of my subscribers were initially very skeptical and kept asking why I was buying $AMD instead of $AVGO. Their doubt only strengthened my conviction. At $194 to $200 (a couple of months ago), I made my final bet in my trading account as highlighted here. As a long-term investor, I simply kept DCA’ing based on my own signals and doubled down even when many smart Elliott Wave analysts were calling for a collapse back to $160 — or even $120. Those bearish calls served as strong contrarian confirmation in retrospect! At this stage, with the stock trading near $460, the best strategy is simple: sit back and enjoy the parabolic ride. Looking back if any content creator is telling you to trim at $200 and wait for the collapse, they are fake furus who need to sharpen their technical analysis. If they’re advising you to trade in and out by selling at $300, they don’t understand the power of long-term compounding in exceptional companies. At the core, the real wisdom is this: Initiate a strong position in the right stocks, DCA consistently when your reliable indicators align, and always keep dry powder for meaningful dips. At the end of the day, it sounds simple, but very few execute it with discipline. Our community has done exactly that, and the results speak for themselves. The stock market ultimately rewards the prepared — not the emotional chasers. The whales gave us well over a year to accumulate gradually. Those who used that time wisely are now positioned to benefit significantly.

Leopold released his 13F and uhh... WHAT IS THIS? Puts in $SMH $NVDA $ORCL $AVGO $AMD $MU $TSM $ASML Bro turned into Michael Burry However, the fact that he was in these positions on March 31st means that the following rally over the next six weeks absolutely obliterated him. What is happening to Leopold (or what does he think is happening to us)?

Donald Trump is apparently long Sushi. I genuinely find it hilarious the President took a large % ownership of Kura Sushi ( $KRUS, ~$600m MC). Among everything from $AVGO to $NVDA. If Trump did buy $5M worth, the president would own close to ~.8% of one of my favorite US Sushi Chains. Don't have any open positions... but I do love the idea of our President buying up Sushi restaurants.

Just posted: 9 of Dr. Cat’s @cantonmeow video highlights featuring 27 key stocks you need to keep an eye on. Due to time constraints, Cat wasn’t able to cover more than that this week. That said, these are all must-own stocks for this market cycle, though there are still some more. On the semiconductor side, Cat has covered $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, and $TSM extensively over the past year, and I’ve been highlighting them as must-own names since February 2024. Rather than repeating the same semiconductor commentary this week, we’ve focused this time on covering a broader range of sectors. Not everyone is willing to put in extensive work on the weekends, but we have done it consistently over the past years because we are committed to keeping our community well-prepared and focused — ignoring all the market noise on X!

RT @dannycheng2022: Semiconductor Forward P/E (as of May 10, 2026): $NVDA: 26.0x $AMD: 53.0x $TSM: 26.3x $AVGO: 38.0x $SMCI: 11.3x $ON: 33.2x $ASML: 39.0x $SMH (semis ETF) ~33-38x weighted avg. $SOXL is leveraged — no standard P/E. I own the first three — $NVDA, $AMD, and $TSM — and they make up the largest portion of my portfolios. I’ll continue holding and adding more if whales offer bigger discounts. How about you?

Interesting report that I missed that Shunsin (6451) landed $AVGO CPO/SiPH orders… And their EPS growth rate could reach over 1240%. Of course this is confidential and is media speculation. But makes sense that all your top players use Foxconn for optical packaging/test. https://t.co/aqnUQEQdYS

So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long. They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules. And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028. Just for their CPO exposure: -> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25 -> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est. 18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900 CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080 (If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors). Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case. Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch. This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored. Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company? Yes, absolute massive. For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source. And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA. Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM). But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments: 2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%) ~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%) 2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage) 2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M) So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028. Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS. But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%. 2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early. Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC. Even if we drop: -> market share to just 15%. -> compress their net income margin down to 14%. -> connector ASP to $10. At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap. We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)

Semiconductor Forward P/E (as of May 10, 2026): $NVDA: 26.0x $AMD: 53.0x $TSM: 26.3x $AVGO: 38.0x $SMCI: 11.3x $ON: 33.2x $ASML: 39.0x $SMH (semis ETF) ~33-38x weighted avg. $SOXL is leveraged — no standard P/E. I own the first three — $NVDA, $AMD, and $TSM — and they make up the largest portion of my portfolios. I’ll continue holding and adding more if whales offer bigger discounts. How about you?

Never underestimate the power of simple charts and the beautify of genuine long term investment—these parabolic stocks are likely to go even higher. $ARM $INTC $AAOI $MRVL $AEHR $SNDK $MU blockstack:native $AMD $AXTI $AVGO I've been charting these outperformers almost daily for months now, whenever I can, to keep my community informed. I’d rather not spend time on laggards — it’s not the best use of either of our time.

$AVGO (April 25, 2026-daily chart update) Are you in? https://t.co/jY6n8Otbek

Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.

$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.

The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.