Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830):在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI:主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333):稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI:把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆,毕竟背靠富士康,而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系,抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下,个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大,很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来,在未来两三年内,借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件,他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇
$HIMX (May 21, 2026-daily chart for viewing) https://t.co/z0GtjZdakN
HOW DOES $POET ($3.14B) HAVE A HIGHER VALUATION THAN FOCI (3363, $3.1B)??? FOCI IS LITERALLY THE BOTTLENECK FOR CPO VOLUME RAMP AND MAIN SUPPLIER FOR $TSM AND $NVDA. High conviction Foci outperforms once institutions find this name. Also, can Foci management please pursue NASDAQ ADR like $HIMX? Thank you.
FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure. 1. $TSM COUPE advanced packaging director hinted that FAU supplies by FOCI be a pretty big bottleneck for mass production. 2. Leading supplier for $NVDA and $TSM expected with up to 50% market share from Morgan Stanley note. 3. $HIMX signaled record demand and that Foci should scale up capacity (meaning high medium term demand visibility) 4. FAU and optical components make a large % of CPO related BOM from Goldman Sachs research note. 5. Overarching CPO tam basically goes from near 0 to $91B in the next two years from the GS note. I’m very confident about this theme directionally over time (NFA), despite any recent market volatility. Risks include getting designed out for later generations. But over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated compared to other names but might need to be actively monitored. Just throwing out ideas over long positions I hold, for more purer play CPO exposure.
NEW from Hunterbrook Media x @Citrini7: the sleepy Taiwanese semiconductor company Himax appears to be manufacturing critical photonics components for NVIDIA's next-gen co-packaged optics platform. Also: Apple? Full article — and video game! — on $HIMX: https://t.co/dtmViOKIcM