Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price floors)... and their operating profit is already absurd. There's a consensus that shortage in 2027 will be much more severe than 2026... Even $SNDK expends gross margins to exceed 80% entering 2030. You're going to hear Acer and other CEOs that want memory prices to go down cite bear cases like CXMT/YMTC, and Chinese players. But just looking at supply procurement that $NVDA is doing + hyperscalers, demand visibility is absurd for the next 5 years. And by that time, cumulative FCF coming in from these take/pay + pricing floor contracts might exceed some of their entire marketcaps so it feels like there's some baseline. Near-term is always volatile (IV dropped a ton across $EWY to $DRAM to $MU), so people with call options likely got nuked, along with underlying prices. But if Samsung is 3x 2027E, has 5 year LTAs with 70% of capacity committed from hyperscalers, and price floors, it's kinda hard to see these names suffer a sustained crash... For optics: - $LITE is literally sold out into 2029, starting discussions into 2030. With demand visibility lasting into 2031… with hyperscalers largely funding the capacity buildout. Their 2028 Greensboro fab expansion was ~$5B in UHP laser capacity revenue alone, yet it’s basically allocated toward $NVDA (50%+ with options for more) and co from channel checks. Existing supply chain bottlenecks are extremely severe as optical content/XPU skyrockets entering 2027-2028. So everything from DSPs/TIAs, photodiodes, lasers, InP/SOI substrates, wafers (epi, SOI, etc) are expected to go brrr. And what does that imply to anyone else with enormous amounts of capacity coming online like $AAOI + $SIVE + $MTSI capacity expansion in 2027? Or other players like Sumitomo / Furukawa? But again it's not quite the same situation as memory since the BOM % is extremely low in a cluster... If micron/samsung raised another 2000% hyperscalers would go bankrupt. But doing that for InP substrates seems possible. Or a 100% increase on CW laser content. I actually thought $LITE was overvalued at $100B+ MC, relative to capacity expansion on your smaller optical players to their respective MCs. So I chose to position accordingly (But lumentum does deserve premiums for demand visibility). For the companies leading the charge like $NVDA / $AVGO / $MRVL: - Nvidia has 70% forward revenue growth FY2028 which is supply constrained growth. - Broadcom 100% Y/Y for 2027/2028 which is also supply constrained growth. - Marvell FY2031 upgraded guidance to $70B-$90B from $46B analyst projections... They all seem to be very happy.... and read through on demand for next 2-3 years is enormous (also echoing what $INTC CEO said today on the panel with $AVGO CEO). So you have overwhelming growth on memory + photonics + from the leaders... But the nuance is not everything in the AI supply chain get the same economic benefit. HBM/Laser/CPU/MLCC and other players in the bottlenecks look to be printing money. And seem to be the largest beneficiaries of the current bottlenecks. Test players are also getting price hikes + capacity allocated by players like $NVDA, but economic impact seems a tad lower than other players since forward P/E for many I modeled were still in the 45x+ range even if you hiked prices like 10-30%. As for capex intensive players... there's some like $IREN ($25-30B for 2027) that despite a deal with Anthropic ended up dropping. I don't think markets seem to appreciate players spending a lot of money + ongoing financing (think they're like halfway through their $6B ATM). Just some hopium for $IREN investors, $NBIS also signed a deal with $META at the start of the year (but markets didn't care at all, since Nebius dropped to ~$70-80 at the lowest point?). But did 6 months later, as the time to revenue inflection gets closer and you're past the ATM/capex window, markets would likely care more. I don't think it's irrational but at the same time, the fundamentals have improved from Mirantis acquisition to others. I also think it was known for awhile it was either OpenAI/Anthropic from CEO comments earlier too? But either way to be a more risk-off environment where funds seem to be rotating to larger names as a flight to safety. $CRWD / $PLTR as just two example, but my take is that the valuations of these rotations are reaching clown levels. And that certain AI supply chain beneficiaries in comparison are undervalued now. I was thinking markets would just rotate to names that are extremely profitable like Samsung or names that have <2X P/E, so it was surprising to see $KOSPI and some legacy memory players get sold off today. Since all of this is colliding with uncertainty about sht macro environments and renewed sustainability concern of AI capex/commitments from frontier labs like OpenAI/Anthropic from due to that FT piece recently. I've always been sounding the alarm about the contractual backlog OpenAI has with $CBRS, $MSFT, $ORCL and others earlier in the year. But OpenAI did just raise $122B or so , so I don't quite think they're at risk of going down anytime soon. I also don't think overall capex can just exponentially go up, but even if it stalls / hovers around a certain point or even drops... Capex toward certain areas like optics will still explode as hyperscalers fight over allocations when CPO scale up comes about, but might drop in others where more capacity comes online like test or DRAM. So it's a lot more nuanced than capex down = everything down or vice versa. I also slightly agree with community agreements that open weight models wouldn't lessen demand on AI infrastructure (otherwise $NVDA wouldn't be funneling funds into Reflection), but all the contractual obligations that Anthropic has might get messy if their models/company get cannibalized. Either way, I'd expect some of these frontier lab valuations to likely compress but I do think Jensen knows what he's doing though to avoid contagion. But basically: - Extremely difficult market now, can't just throw money at any AI supply chain company like $GLW and expect it to go up. There's cause for concern of rate hikes mixed with financing per $AVGO CEO but not to the point you just blindly sell off everything. Also I think markets are stupid and ties baskets together so that leads to mispricing + individual buying opportunities with certain chokepoints too. If capacity + demand is visible and forward p/e compresses like $AAOI to single digits off hundreds or thousands of percent growth from hyperscalers off $471m transceiver revenues and hundreds of thousands of monthly ELSFP capacity. Or $SIVE coming online with 100M+ laser capacity + multiple foundries with ASP hikes on lasers. I wouldn't lump them into other AI supply chain names in IP like $RMBS or others. My take is that AI supply chain beneficiaries with closer inflection points, demand visibility, and forward P/E compressing due to economic leverage would likely outperform medium term despite current volatility. TLDR: - Memory strongest risk/adjusted return with LTAs + pricing floors extending to 2030's + buybacks. - My opinion is that optical supercycle for 2027-2028 with CPO/NPO is going to look absurd relative to capacity coming online of smaller suppliers. - Overwhelming fundamentals/growth colliding with sht macro + media scares - Markets are stupid and groups things in baskets and sells them all off together or buys overvalued names, creating short/long opportunities I'd give a prayer to people on short term options given underlying drop + IV decline, but there could be a reversal... who knows. Most valuable thing right now is time.
$AAOI has finished a $500m ATM In April.. $600m ATM in June. Then filed another $600m in August. It's out of my control if management wants to abuse this trash repeated ATM structure. Instead following $AXTI like LTA prepayments and using that to fund buildout. Or taking private placements like $NVDA + Nebius for $2B and using that to fund buildout. Or convertible notes at 40% premiums. It's really hard for the stock to break out of $100 or $150 or $200 if there's $600M of selling pressure at those levels (and maybe expectations of future ATMs). I had the same criticism with $IREN with their $6B ATM, which is why it's been rangebound for half a year. And I'll say the same thing with my own thesis names too. I see $AAOI operationally very bullish for 2027, with $471m/month transceiver revenue. 400k ELSFP units/month entering 2028. The revenue ramp is absurd and can compress to single digit forward P/E. But I find it hard to get excited over funding infinite ATMs during the buildout, when you're sacrificing opportunity cost with names currently profitable like $SNDK or Samsung. I think a lot of retail investors conflate stock performance with how a company is doing operationally. $AAOI is capitalizing on a bottleneck with high demand visibility, but stock has been going nowhere near-term with repeated ATMs. I do expect AOI to strongly outperform (especially in 2027) if they stop issuing these stupid ATMs.
Wow $NBIS relative outperformance is wild. Back in 2025 I wrote my Neocloud thesis on $IREN to $CRWV. But I made the decision months later to consolidate it all into Nebius... Despite the the hate from FinX back then. Very interesting to see Nebius up 6% even during sector drop… After Oracle was reportedly seeking payment protection if Project Jupiter misses its 2028 opening. With Oracle: "seeking to protect itself from potential cost increases related to a large DC project in New Mexico by sending a force majeure notice" per Reuters. Lot of new people like to piggyback after it’s up a lot, but there was a lot less people bullish back in 2025. Especially during the period with a ton of institutional short sellers back in December. I still think markets might be underestimating sum of parts growth, even if its core business grows like crazy 2027+ onwards.
I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time: $AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33% CPUs go brrr $SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61% Lasers go brrr $EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23% Memory go brrr $NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.03% | $IREN +1.73% Compute go brrr Probably most material developments were CPU:GPU ratio expectations + CPU demand (from new AI releases). As well as optical developments from ECOC 2026 (as seen with $MRVL PR + others) Still a lot to catch up on.
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
$IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown: “Even if models never improved from here… just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years” I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare. Guess what happened? These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout. Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.
It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.
I asked OpenAI Astra Ultra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 Max to make me a 5x-10x return type portfolio in 1 year. Burnt a lot of credits, and the results are in: OpenAI: - $KYTX (autoimmune CAR-T results) - $PRQR (human RNA-editing datasets) - $VSTM (KRAS cancer-drug) - $CNTB (asthma and COPD) - $RANI (oral biologics) - $IVA (MASH) - $SILC (networking + inference hardware) - $AMPX (batteries) - $EOSE (batteries) - $ZVRA (rare-disease drug growth) Anthropic: - $INO (respiratory papillomatosis) - $CAPR (PDUFA for deramiocel) - $GOSS (seralutinib) - $SLS (Phase 3 binary) - $IREN (familiar face) - $WULF (familiar face) - $OKLO (nuclear) - $SMR (nuclear) - $RGTI (quantum) - $QBTS (quantum) *Disclosure don't own any of these aside from 1 share in IREN, not a recommendation, just TLDR of LLM output for educational purposes. So very interesting results: Our beloved AGI Astra prefers really obscure biotech I've never heard about. And a few familiar names like $EOSE and $AMPX. And Fable... yeah idk, feels like it learned a little too much from /r/wallstreetbets and X but maybe it's right, who knows. Anyway no judgement, I'll save this and revisit it in a few months. If one of them actually delivers... I'll be impressed.
Just taking a look at Leopold's Situational Awareness Q2 13F latest holdings as of June 30th: 1. $SNDK - $5.674B 2. $MU - $5.574B 3. $BE - $1.899B 4. $TSM - $1.265B 5. $NBIS - $1.232B 6. $CRWV - $744.5M 7. $CORZ - $665.6M 8. $STM - $584.3M (new) 9. $APLD - $469.0M 10. $RIOT - $468.2M 11. $SHAZ - $456.8M 12. $IREN - $433.3M Less material positions includeed $CLSK, $KEEL, sei-network:native, $WYFI, $BTDR, $TE, $HIVE, $VSH, and others. Seems like Situational Awareness concentrated around memory (Sandisk, Micron), that have low forward multiples but high visibility into 2030. As well as Anthropic/energy/power adjacent from colo/neoclouds + Bloom. Some of the bottlenecks like the MLCC trade, he couldn't see play out (Taiyo Yuden, etc). due to July's liqudation. And some are new like $STM (eg. MCU price hikes). With core winners of everything such as $TSM (but less high-beta). This looked similar to my H2 2026/early 2027 portfolio with Nebius, Micron, TSM, colo players and others as core focus. (I've heavily concentrated on upstream networking/legacy memory currently, with a lot of name overlap). But always cool to see what others are doing.
After seeing everything from $AXTI to $IREN get nuked… I’m starting to believe in the: “September is the worst month of the year” myth. https://t.co/sck3Y0pOg2
Daily Charts for Free Viewing (August 28, 2026) 1. $IREN 2. $CIFR 3. $WGMI 4. $CLSK https://t.co/XrcjL06ZC7
Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.
$IREN (August 14, 2026-Daily Chart) A simple chart is all you need. I’ll update the IREN chart for my community sooner today. @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures https://t.co/IH6Ph5dA6M
$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.
Woah, $RIOT announced a $9.1B deal with Anthropic, with a possible contract extending to $16.1B, over 20Y. $AMD also exercised its option to expand its existing deal with Riot. (And they still have another 1 GW campus they have LOI with for a tenant) In terms of timelines, seem like most of the Colo basket have their revenue inflections hit H2 2027? (Eg. Riot Anthropic deal targets Dec 2027 for first 96 MW, AMD full 50 MW - May 2027) It’s cute to see all the former miners like $IREN and co. grow up.
$IREN (August 6, 2026-Weekly Chart) On the weekly chart, IREN shows no clear direction yet. Support zone sits at $28–$30. Price has been rejected by the longest momentum bar at $41.7 for four consecutive weeks — this level is now acting as resistance and will likely require more attempts to break through.
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve seen.
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
To show solidarity with the $IREN holders: I now own 1 share of IREN.
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
$IREN (July 18, 2026-daily chart update) If the dip deepens, the $30 range is expected to act as key support, while the momentum bars at $41.5, $43.1, and $56.7 would serve as significant resistance levels. https://t.co/qrDxxitBDW
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B. Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia. Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise? (disclosure: no open positions in any of the above).
RT @elliotrades: The US government is spending $7.6 trillion on AI infrastructure by 2031. Microsoft has $80 BILLION in unfulfilled Azure orders... NOT because of demand, but because they simply CANNOT get enough GPUs, power, or land. GPUs have a 36-52 week lead time. Blackwell is sold out through mid-2027. TSMC's 3nm wafers have demand exceeding capacity by 3x. The hyperscalers can't build fast enough. Enter the NEOCLOUDS. Pure-play AI cloud providers that do ONE thing, and one thing ONLY: rent GPUs. The neocloud market went from $0 to $25 billion revenue in just 3 years. It's projected to hit $400 billion by 2031. The biggest question is this: WILL THOSE PREDICTIONS ACTUALLY COME TRUE? If so, this industry is set to explode. If not, it may crumble. Three companies are leading the charge: $NBIS $IREN $CRWV Along with a slew of small and microcaps: $BRUN $WYFI $SHAZ and more... This is the biggest infrastructure buildout since the internet itself. The last time we saw spending at this scale, it created Amazon, Google, and Meta. This is the infrastructure layer of the AI revolution. Don't sleep on it. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:40 The Black Swan 1:20 What is a Neocloud 3:40 Iren Overview 7:15 Nebius Overview 10:22 Corweave Overview 11:26 The Small Fish 12:47 The Black Swan That Wasn't 16:58 Final Thoughts
The US government is spending $7.6 trillion on AI infrastructure by 2031. Microsoft has $80 BILLION in unfulfilled Azure orders... NOT because of demand, but because they simply CANNOT get enough GPUs, power, or land. GPUs have a 36-52 week lead time. Blackwell is sold out through mid-2027. TSMC's 3nm wafers have demand exceeding capacity by 3x. The hyperscalers can't build fast enough. Enter the NEOCLOUDS. Pure-play AI cloud providers that do ONE thing, and one thing ONLY: rent GPUs. The neocloud market went from $0 to $25 billion revenue in just 3 years. It's projected to hit $400 billion by 2031. The biggest question is this: WILL THOSE PREDICTIONS ACTUALLY COME TRUE? If so, this industry is set to explode. If not, it may crumble. Three companies are leading the charge: $NBIS $IREN $CRWV Along with a slew of small and microcaps: $BRUN $WYFI $SHAZ and more... This is the biggest infrastructure buildout since the internet itself. The last time we saw spending at this scale, it created Amazon, Google, and Meta. This is the infrastructure layer of the AI revolution. Don't sleep on it. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:40 The Black Swan 1:20 What is a Neocloud 3:40 Iren Overview 7:15 Nebius Overview 10:22 Corweave Overview 11:26 The Small Fish 12:47 The Black Swan That Wasn't 16:58 Final Thoughts
$IREN founders award themselves $1.14B+ of stock based compensation. Vesting over 4 years timeframe. This is amid their active $6,000,000,000 ATM. I’m not going to say anything but I think it speaks for itself. https://t.co/IoCHVxVIXs
$IREN (June 30, 2026-daily chart update) IREN is losing some momentum after meeting resistance at $63. The near-term support level lies at $45, while the momentum bar at $42.30 would provide another layer of support if the dip deepens. https://t.co/jigcOeS1Tj
OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.
I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN. https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS. Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate? https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3
I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.
RT @dannycheng2022: Some people will always tell you not to buy a stock once it has already doubled or tripled — but my experience has been the exact opposite. I’ve made it a habit to chase strong momentum names after they’ve already run hard, even 2x or 5x from my initial positions. Many of those decisions turned out to be highly profitable, especially when I sized them aggressively. For example: I chased $NVDA around $30+ in 2023 after it had already tripled from its 2022 cycle low near $10.80. I chased $PLTR after it doubled from $5.83 to $12 in 2023. I chased $AMD at $150 in 2025 after it had already doubled from its cycle low near $76. I chased $TSM at $112 in February 2024 after it had doubled from $56.90 in 2022. I chased $IREN after it 10x’d from $1.02 to over $10 in 2025. I chased $ONDS at $2 and higher after it 5x’d from $0.38 in October 2023, and I kept adding as it continued to climb (4x from my initial entries). I chased $HOOD in the $10–12 range after it doubled from its 2022 lows, then kept adding more between $70 and $77 in 2026. I chased $BB between $4.50 and $5.50 after it doubled from $2.01 in August 2024. I chased $TE at $6.50–$7.50 after it had already 6x’d from $0.92 in April 2025. The real edge isn’t avoiding stocks that have already doubled or tripled — it’s having rock-solid conviction and the discipline to hold through volatility. Pure fundamentals rarely give you that edge. What matters is a reliable mix of technical signals, whale momentum, sector tailwinds, and a clear narrative. Chasing strength has beaten waiting for “cheap” names every single time — as long as you know which ones still have fuel left and you’re willing to ride the waves. @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @sheslee @tonylee80 @Hiteshp99 @Nagetheworld
This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
As a thank you to all my incredible supporters on X, I’m releasing the latest video on $IREN and $CIFR from Dr. Cat @cantonmeow — available this week only. If you’re interested, go check it out! Every weekend, Dr. Cat helps me create more than 10 videos covering the core and trending stocks which we don’t want you to miss them this cycle. https://t.co/EQEd9BIa5m
Given my recent popularity, might be a good time to put out a PSA. Early followers have known this from the start: 1. I don't do any paid promotions, paid marketing, or accept outside gifts. But I appreciate all the recent outreach from companies! If you see or engage with something online related to any type of payment, it's fabricated for engagement or a scammer. The reason I don't want to is because I'm just posting on X for fun, and when money is involved it turns into a job (which I don't want it to feel like). Also, well off personally so I've never felt influenced by anyone outside. 2. The only "paid" thing I have is $1 subscriptions. That's all. From the very start, I've never taken a single penny outside of X subscriptions/creator sharing. Which is why I say in my bio: "I only use X, beware of imposters." Anyone approaching you to share an external community or app is a scammer or imposter. It's just very frustrating that people still fall for these impersonators. 3. I'm just one person posting my thoughts online. -> Not some institution or Illuminati team. Quality of research is "high" because I have a technical background. And I genuinely do this as a hobby researching supply chain ideas. There's not some "hidden" motive like a paid research group from Asia, it's just fun lol. 4. I will always disclose positions if I have them or if I don't. Very open and transparent about it. With Chinese equities I'm just posting research in hope it benefits people find conviction in critical companies in global supply chains. I don't have any positions / any financial incentives (so I can be impartial), and haven't privately discussed with anyone about ideas I post beforehand. Maybe it happens in Asia, but in the US it's highly illegal to be running groups or getting paid to post about companies. I'm just posting my ideas for free without outside influence, in case others like the idea. It probably seems odd, but I'm doing this as a hobby and for fulfillment of helping others. 5. I'm staying anonymous so I can just freely post my ideas online. Reason being is after I first posted negative things about $IREN, I would have a lot of personal IRL threats and harassment from dozens of accounts for me to stop. Don't want any personal safety or people around me to be at risk for just publishing free research online. Anyway, goal is to help out retail investors with free information synthesis; rather than just selling that directly to institutions. I'm sure this positive sum model might anger people along the way (who have expensive paywalls, or financial incentives) that might feel threatened by information democratization. But genuinely just sharing day-to-day thoughts for free. Very surprised by recent popularity but it helps me distribute compelling ideas to more people. And grateful Elon / X gave me an opportunity through X.
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
Some people will always tell you not to buy a stock once it has already doubled or tripled — but my experience has been the exact opposite. I’ve made it a habit to chase strong momentum names after they’ve already run hard, even 2x or 5x from my initial positions. Many of those decisions turned out to be highly profitable, especially when I sized them aggressively. For example: I chased $NVDA around $30+ in 2023 after it had already tripled from its 2022 cycle low near $10.80. I chased $PLTR after it doubled from $5.83 to $12 in 2023. I chased $AMD at $150 in 2025 after it had already doubled from its cycle low near $76. I chased $TSM at $112 in February 2024 after it had doubled from $56.90 in 2022. I chased $IREN after it 10x’d from $1.02 to over $10 in 2025. I chased $ONDS at $2 and higher after it 5x’d from $0.38 in October 2023, and I kept adding as it continued to climb (4x from my initial entries). I chased $HOOD in the $10–12 range after it doubled from its 2022 lows, then kept adding more between $70 and $77 in 2026. I chased $BB between $4.50 and $5.50 after it doubled from $2.01 in August 2024. I chased $TE at $6.50–$7.50 after it had already 6x’d from $0.92 in April 2025. The real edge isn’t avoiding stocks that have already doubled or tripled — it’s having rock-solid conviction and the discipline to hold through volatility. Pure fundamentals rarely give you that edge. What matters is a reliable mix of technical signals, whale momentum, sector tailwinds, and a clear narrative. Chasing strength has beaten waiting for “cheap” names every single time — as long as you know which ones still have fuel left and you’re willing to ride the waves. @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @sheslee @tonylee80 @Hiteshp99 @Nagetheworld
$IREN and $CIFR (June 5, 2026-daily charts) I first highlighted my bullish thesis on $IREN and $CIFR to the community back in early 2025, when they were trading at just $10 and $5 respectively. I’ve been holding both positions since early 2023 — even after trimming some in early 2024, my average cost remains under $0.01. Success in this market isn’t just about charts. It demands real holding power, dry powder, and unbreakable conviction.
Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
$IREN (June 3, 2026-daily chart) I first brought my community’s attention to $IREN when it was trading at $10 last summer in 2025. We bought all the way from $10 up to $48. I’m terribly sorry we had to baghold through the painful downturn in March when the stock dropped to $31 — even though Elliott Wave analysis had warned of a possible retest of $10. That said, my community trusted the process. We stayed disciplined, focused on a clean chart with reliable, backtested signals, and held strong. Once again, huge congratulations to all of you who rode with me. Let’s take $IREN back to all-time highs. To those who unsubscribed in the $30 range — the stock market has never been kind to impatience and weak conviction. Perhaps it’s best to simply follow the Elliott Wave experts… maybe you’ll do 200X better than me.
$NBIS has anime plot armor! Happy to hear Weebius has been outperforming the market and Neocloud basket ( $IREN / $CIFR ). Last year post MSFT earnings, I gave a prediction after Q4 earnings, Nebius would reach a $100B MC. We’re currently sitting at $60B MC, getting close! https://t.co/e96TirkJT8
I've known Danny for nearly 2 years now, and looking back, so many great things have happened since then. For many people, Danny was the person who helped bring tremendous value to their portfolios through companies like $PLTR, $IREN, $ASTS, $RKLB, and of course, the "gem" $AMD. For me, however, his impact went far beyond investing returns. Danny introduced me to a circle of incredibly intelligent people—great investors and traders with strong mindsets, positive attitudes, and a constant desire to improve. There's a saying: "Surround yourself with five millionaires, and you'll become the sixth." I truly believe the right environment can completely change your trajectory. Beyond the investment ideas, Danny helped me build my own project (my own Patreon) by giving me visibility through mentions, recommendations, and support whenever I needed guidance. For that, I'll always be grateful. I'm a firm believer that the good you put into the world eventually comes back to you. Among the people who have had the biggest influence on my investing journey and from whom I've drawn inspiration for both market ideas and content are: @dannycheng2022 @cantonmeow @TJTheWheelDeal @OptionNorth @matthughes13 @acethebulllly @redfoxryder @tonylee80 @sheslee @EWTracker @Micro2Macr0 @valerijatrades1 Thank you for everything you've contributed to my journey. 🙏 Your impact reaches much further than you probably realize.
听人说我在中文圈都快”闪光宝可梦”了, 哈哈哈。 拜托我也就是个普通人好吗！ 平时也就是随手写点自己的想法而已。感觉最近关注度高了，也莫名其妙招来了不少黑子和瞎编的谣言 跟最近那些胡说八道的传闻相反，其实我在推特上从来没删过任何一篇分析帖。 大家估计是把我跟哪个喊单 $IREN 的大board member给搞混了吧。 我就是喜欢找点不一样的选股角度，先让行情走一段，最后再看看到底打没打脸 我觉得最核心的无非就是踩中了下个大叙事，比如去年的 Neoclouds 和光子板块，或者今年的 800 vdc 和 CPO。 不过… 我还是非常感谢大家温暖的支持！
Look who joined team $NBIS. 5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN. That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year. Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND
??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM
@aizek0 https://t.co/lGKXopUati When the market is overexcited one day. My average cost for both $IREN and $CIFR is below $0 after trimming before.
You don’t need to time the exact bottom. Position sizing is far more important. I never tried to catch the absolute cycle low. Instead, I bought after strong rebounds of +50% to over +900% once the recovery was clearly underway — and simply sized my positions properly. This is what I’ve done with strong size over the past three years: $NVDA — Bought at $15.20 in Jan 2023 (+41% from cycle low $10.80) $PLTR — Bought at $8.80 (+51% from $5.83) $TSM — Bought at $112 in Feb 2024 (+97% from $56.90) $RKLB — Bought at $6 in Aug 2024 (+73% from $3.47) $ASTS — Bought at $20 in Aug 2024 (+915% from $1.97) $EOSE — Bought at $0.89 (+46% from $0.61) $IREN — Bought at $3 in Oct 2023 (+75% from $1.71) $CIFR — Bought at $3 in Apr 2023 (+687% from $0.38) $AMD — Bought at $110 in May 2025 (+45% from $76) $HOOD — Bought at $10 in Dec 2023 (+47% from $6.81) Main lesson: Timing the exact bottom is overrated. Getting the position size right and buying once the trend has turned matters much more for long-term results. Big winners come from conviction + proper sizing, not from buying at the perfect price!
$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS. $NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital. -> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat. $NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures. And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both. I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%. The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points. IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.
$POET and $IREN literally both won the Fake it Until you make it award. -> Grey area endless marketing of crap through influencers. -> Diluted retail enough to hoard tons of cash -> Cash is sets baseline Market Cap. Now $POET probably has around $830M pure cash from dilution after $400m private placement. While their marketcap was sitting under $500m last year.
Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent. If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate. NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick. Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.
They Called Every One of My Buys a Bubble: $NVDA, $TSLA, $PLTR, $AMD, $NBIS, $IREN, $ONDS… Now Trump Is Buying (May 15, 2026) When I bought my first $NVDA shares in January 2023, everyone called it a bubble — the P/E ratio had soared to 114.8x. When I picked up $PLTR at $8.80, the verdict was the same: just another overhyped meme stock with no real business or valuation. In the summer of 2024, I started reloading $TSLA below $170, only to be told it was obviously in a massive bubble with its triple-digit P/E. In May 2025, I added $AMD near $110, and the permabears once again insisted the top was in. Since last summer, I’ve been steadily accumulating $NBIS, $IREN, and $OND — and the “this is a bubble” warnings followed me there as well. Now, deep into 2026, the bubble chorus has only grown louder. Yet President Trump continues to load up on stocks himself. So the question is simple: will the bubble bears finally be right… or will Trump win again?
As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. $NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet. So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means. It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured power. I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing. Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds. While Nvidia got a free no-risk purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their logo. $IREN is basically a marketing company at this point, while the other Neoclouds actually allow equity appreciation.
$IREN (May 12, 2026-weekly chart) Dilution or not, I haven’t sold a single share of $IREN and I’m still holding strong. I still remember a few of my former Patreon subscribers asking why I bet big on $IREN and kept buying from $38 all the way up to $48 during the last drawdown. The truth is, I simply trust my charts. I can’t give you any financial advice, but I shared my buy orders and signals so many times I’ve lost count. At the end of the day, the stock market rewards those who stay long and ride the rally instead of trying to trade in and out!
I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.
@aleabitoreddit $IREN announcement 🤯
$IREN (April 24, 2026-daily) Am I dumb for still holding $IREN from $2.8? The chart speaks a thousand words! https://t.co/HMb9UF4PUk