$MSFT (October 13, 2026-Daily Chart) The last volatility hole, together with the descending blue ribbon, accurately timed the cycle bottom. After that, MSFT resumed its long-term uptrend, and it has survived the volatility hole each time so far. Could $MSFT survive this time as well? Please check out the buy signals I have highlighted on the daily chart.

Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price floors)... and their operating profit is already absurd. There's a consensus that shortage in 2027 will be much more severe than 2026... Even $SNDK expends gross margins to exceed 80% entering 2030. You're going to hear Acer and other CEOs that want memory prices to go down cite bear cases like CXMT/YMTC, and Chinese players. But just looking at supply procurement that $NVDA is doing + hyperscalers, demand visibility is absurd for the next 5 years. And by that time, cumulative FCF coming in from these take/pay + pricing floor contracts might exceed some of their entire marketcaps so it feels like there's some baseline. Near-term is always volatile (IV dropped a ton across $EWY to $DRAM to $MU), so people with call options likely got nuked, along with underlying prices. But if Samsung is 3x 2027E, has 5 year LTAs with 70% of capacity committed from hyperscalers, and price floors, it's kinda hard to see these names suffer a sustained crash... For optics: - $LITE is literally sold out into 2029, starting discussions into 2030. With demand visibility lasting into 2031… with hyperscalers largely funding the capacity buildout. Their 2028 Greensboro fab expansion was ~$5B in UHP laser capacity revenue alone, yet it’s basically allocated toward $NVDA (50%+ with options for more) and co from channel checks. Existing supply chain bottlenecks are extremely severe as optical content/XPU skyrockets entering 2027-2028. So everything from DSPs/TIAs, photodiodes, lasers, InP/SOI substrates, wafers (epi, SOI, etc) are expected to go brrr. And what does that imply to anyone else with enormous amounts of capacity coming online like $AAOI + $SIVE + $MTSI capacity expansion in 2027? Or other players like Sumitomo / Furukawa? But again it's not quite the same situation as memory since the BOM % is extremely low in a cluster... If micron/samsung raised another 2000% hyperscalers would go bankrupt. But doing that for InP substrates seems possible. Or a 100% increase on CW laser content. I actually thought $LITE was overvalued at $100B+ MC, relative to capacity expansion on your smaller optical players to their respective MCs. So I chose to position accordingly (But lumentum does deserve premiums for demand visibility). For the companies leading the charge like $NVDA / $AVGO / $MRVL: - Nvidia has 70% forward revenue growth FY2028 which is supply constrained growth. - Broadcom 100% Y/Y for 2027/2028 which is also supply constrained growth. - Marvell FY2031 upgraded guidance to $70B-$90B from $46B analyst projections... They all seem to be very happy.... and read through on demand for next 2-3 years is enormous (also echoing what $INTC CEO said today on the panel with $AVGO CEO). So you have overwhelming growth on memory + photonics + from the leaders... But the nuance is not everything in the AI supply chain get the same economic benefit. HBM/Laser/CPU/MLCC and other players in the bottlenecks look to be printing money. And seem to be the largest beneficiaries of the current bottlenecks. Test players are also getting price hikes + capacity allocated by players like $NVDA, but economic impact seems a tad lower than other players since forward P/E for many I modeled were still in the 45x+ range even if you hiked prices like 10-30%. As for capex intensive players... there's some like $IREN ($25-30B for 2027) that despite a deal with Anthropic ended up dropping. I don't think markets seem to appreciate players spending a lot of money + ongoing financing (think they're like halfway through their $6B ATM). Just some hopium for $IREN investors, $NBIS also signed a deal with $META at the start of the year (but markets didn't care at all, since Nebius dropped to ~$70-80 at the lowest point?). But did 6 months later, as the time to revenue inflection gets closer and you're past the ATM/capex window, markets would likely care more. I don't think it's irrational but at the same time, the fundamentals have improved from Mirantis acquisition to others. I also think it was known for awhile it was either OpenAI/Anthropic from CEO comments earlier too? But either way to be a more risk-off environment where funds seem to be rotating to larger names as a flight to safety. $CRWD / $PLTR as just two example, but my take is that the valuations of these rotations are reaching clown levels. And that certain AI supply chain beneficiaries in comparison are undervalued now. I was thinking markets would just rotate to names that are extremely profitable like Samsung or names that have <2X P/E, so it was surprising to see $KOSPI and some legacy memory players get sold off today. Since all of this is colliding with uncertainty about sht macro environments and renewed sustainability concern of AI capex/commitments from frontier labs like OpenAI/Anthropic from due to that FT piece recently. I've always been sounding the alarm about the contractual backlog OpenAI has with $CBRS, $MSFT, $ORCL and others earlier in the year. But OpenAI did just raise $122B or so , so I don't quite think they're at risk of going down anytime soon. I also don't think overall capex can just exponentially go up, but even if it stalls / hovers around a certain point or even drops... Capex toward certain areas like optics will still explode as hyperscalers fight over allocations when CPO scale up comes about, but might drop in others where more capacity comes online like test or DRAM. So it's a lot more nuanced than capex down = everything down or vice versa. I also slightly agree with community agreements that open weight models wouldn't lessen demand on AI infrastructure (otherwise $NVDA wouldn't be funneling funds into Reflection), but all the contractual obligations that Anthropic has might get messy if their models/company get cannibalized. Either way, I'd expect some of these frontier lab valuations to likely compress but I do think Jensen knows what he's doing though to avoid contagion. But basically: - Extremely difficult market now, can't just throw money at any AI supply chain company like $GLW and expect it to go up. There's cause for concern of rate hikes mixed with financing per $AVGO CEO but not to the point you just blindly sell off everything. Also I think markets are stupid and ties baskets together so that leads to mispricing + individual buying opportunities with certain chokepoints too. If capacity + demand is visible and forward p/e compresses like $AAOI to single digits off hundreds or thousands of percent growth from hyperscalers off $471m transceiver revenues and hundreds of thousands of monthly ELSFP capacity. Or $SIVE coming online with 100M+ laser capacity + multiple foundries with ASP hikes on lasers. I wouldn't lump them into other AI supply chain names in IP like $RMBS or others. My take is that AI supply chain beneficiaries with closer inflection points, demand visibility, and forward P/E compressing due to economic leverage would likely outperform medium term despite current volatility. TLDR: - Memory strongest risk/adjusted return with LTAs + pricing floors extending to 2030's + buybacks. - My opinion is that optical supercycle for 2027-2028 with CPO/NPO is going to look absurd relative to capacity coming online of smaller suppliers. - Overwhelming fundamentals/growth colliding with sht macro + media scares - Markets are stupid and groups things in baskets and sells them all off together or buys overvalued names, creating short/long opportunities I'd give a prayer to people on short term options given underlying drop + IV decline, but there could be a reversal... who knows. Most valuable thing right now is time.

$MSFT (October 11, 2026-Weekly Chart) Trend Analysis: The last volatility hole marked the cycle bottom at $355. Price then picked up momentum and reached the $465 range before backtesting the lower boundary of the volatility hole for support, and resumed the long-term uptrend. Currently, the longest momentum bar in the $514.44 range acts as key support. As long as MSFT continues to hold above it in the coming weeks, the mid-term uptrend remains intact. $550 is acting as resistance for now. Whale accumulation has increased to 98.6%, aligning with the current uptrend. Support: $480, $500, $514 Resistance: $537, $550 How to Use the Signals to Buy and Sell ? 1. Volatility hole + descending blue ribbon → Buy and accumulation zone 2. Red candles at $370 and $387 → Buy and accumulation zone 3. Momentum bars at $397 and $414 → Buy and accumulation zone once cleared Then sit tight and exercise patience until the next bearish signals appear on the monthly chart.

$MSFT (October 7, 2026-Daily Chart) Keep it simple Once the upper boundary of the last Volatility Hole was cleared, it rallied, with the bullsih red ribbon starting to unfold (panel 1), in line with steady and strong whale accumulation (panel 3). https://t.co/BncgTE8QGU

Months ago I shared the bottoming setup on $MSFT on X for free. The bullish trend has played out exactly as anticipated since. How to use the buy signals: 1. Volatility Hole with the blue ribbon: signals the bottoming process and marks a strong buy or accumulation zone if you have conviction. These can take weeks to months to develop. 2. Momentum bars at $371 and $388 (longest momentum bars in panel 1) become reliable buy and accumulation levels once they are cleared. 3. Trend reversal candle (blue ribbon to red ribbon), accompanied by steady whale accumulation. Then sit tight. Hold patiently and let time do the compounding. Investing is straightforward when you are in the right stock. There is no need to trade in and out.

$MSFT (September 11, 2026-Weekly Chart) Trend Analysis: The 2 Volatility holes have been remarkably accurate. The first volatility hole, aligned with the red ribbon, timed the cycle top with precision. The second, together with the blue ribbon, marked the early stage of bottoming at $355 in the week of March 27. 2026. Months of choppy consolidation followed. Price reached $465, then back-tested the $350 support zone again—shaking out retail—before the uptrend resumed. It retested former resistance at $465 and triggered a rally to $517.78. $465 now stands as strong support, while the momentum bar at $514 acts as key mid-term resistance. Whale accumulation decreased to 74.6%.

Let me get this straight chat… you have: $NVDA 70% supply constrained revenue growth projections (would be 100%+) $AVGO AI revenue growing 100%+ Y/Y for next 2 years from mid ~$50B -> $230B OpenAI Astra blowing away AGI benchmarks and starting to train itself. $MSFT / $GOOGL / $AMZN stating compute demand imbalances into next year, with Nvidia projecting $1.3T spend for 2027. You’re seeing this flow through supply chains from Samsung 70% capacity LTAs into 2031 to Powertech advanced packaging capacity 100% booked into 2030. Even your legacy players like Winbond are starting 2029-2030 allocations. Markets always have temporary drawdowns and macro scares… but… How can anyone not think AI stock go brrr?

Tickers currently showing a volatility hole together with descending blue ribbons — a setup that often marks the recent bottom — are listed below. 1. $HOOD 2. $TSLA 3. $NOW 4. $MSFT These are the signals that matter in my TA— learn to read them (upper boundary vs lower boundary) in detail. I highlight them regularly in the MUST-READ posts. And once again, thank you to my community for trusting the signals, staying with them, and continuing to add at the discounts.

$NVDA acquires hugging face for $12,930,300,000. Jensen stated the reason being: - 18M+ devs use Hugging Face - 3M+ models, 500k+ datasets, 1M+ apps - 200k+ companies use the platformm - support of open weight models this almost reminds me of $MSFT buying Github? https://t.co/8FhE7b9mU0

The 100x was made in the dips you sold. Why do so many people fixate on daily price swings when a stock is already in a long-term uptrend and its fundamentals keep improving every quarter and every year? U.S. stock market history makes the cost of that habit clear. Over the past 2 decades, several major technology companies delivered more than 100x: $NVDA: roughly 500x $NFLX: roughly 275x $AMZN: roughly 150–160x $AAPL: from about $2.30 to around $325, or roughly 140x on price and about 150x with dividends reinvested $GOOGL and $MSFT still compounded powerfully over that stretch — closer to 25–35x — but the true 100-baggers were the names people kept selling because they “looked expensive” or had dropped 30–40% that year. If you simply trade in and out, you are likely to miss the parabolic part of the move. I don’t trade in and out because my goal is to create wealth, not to make pocket money! I keep dollar-cost averaging, and I add more when institutions are willing to offer huge discounts — usually 2 times a year — and when retail fear is at its peak! @cantonmeow @sheslee @tonylee80 @Jimmy_tesla_01

“Memory is a bubble.”Explain this then, KOSPI bears: Samsung has reportedly reserved ~70% of its memory production capacity through 2031 via LTAs with $NVDA, $MSFT, and $GOOGL as main counterparties. Five years of demand visibility… https://t.co/GUGWTkXkMc

I'm going to miss the days of Korean retail reacting heavily to $EWY / Samsung / $SKHY daily volatility. New piece: "Korean day traders flee leveraged chip ETFs as regulatory curbs bite" - Trading value in ETFs designed to deliver 2x daily returns of Samsung / SK Hynix has fallen to just 4% of its June peak - The requirement follows earlier measures, including a higher minimum deposit, aimed at cooling speculative activity - And then came the final boss... A 5 day trading course where: "Investors must download a Windows-only program and spend at least one hour each day trading with virtual funds" $MSFT Windows wiped out the Korean retail.

RT @dannycheng2022: 8 Persistent Myths That Keep Retail Investors Poor (While the Smart Money Gets Richer) After 15+ years in the markets and watching thousands of retail accounts, most retail traders lose money not because they’re stupid, but because they believe myths that are the exact opposite of how real wealth is built. Here are the 8 biggest ones — and the truths that actually make people rich. Myth 1: “I just need to find the next 100× small-cap rocket” Reality: True market-beating wealth is almost always made by owning the undisputed leaders of each cycle, not by gambling on unknown micro-caps hoping for an overnight moonshot. In every bull market, a handful of industry leaders capture 80-90% of the gains. The rest fight for scraps. $NVDA, $TSLA, $AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, , —these names dominate their sectors and ride the narrative waves for years. Small stocks might give you a quick 5×, but they also give you permanent loss of capital 9 times out of 10. Stick to the kings and queens. Let the leaders do the heavy lifting. Myth 2: “When the market drops 10-50%, I must sell or stop buying” Reality: The biggest opportunities are handed to you on a silver platter during drawdowns. Whales accumulate aggressively when retail panics.Remember these dates? April -May 2024 July–August 2024 April 2025 November 2025 Retail was selling in panic, succumbing to market noises telling us the start of Great Depression and the end of the bull market this cycle. Smart money was buying hand over fist. In fact, true wealth is created in bear markets and drawdowns, not in euphoria. The bull market just reveals the wealth that was quietly built when nobody wanted to buy. Myth 3: “Diversification is king " Reality: You only need to focus on 5-10 world-class leaders in the 3-4 sectors driving the current cycle. Concentrated bets on the right narrative crush shotgun diversification. The people who went “all in” (responsibly concentrated, not all-or-nothing) on the right themes made life-changing money. The people with too many positions made market returns or less. Concentrated bets on the right narrative > shotgun diversification. Myth 4: “The more I trade, the richer I’ll get” Reality: The wealthiest investors I know barely trade at all—and the greatest example of all is Warren Buffett. He’s worth $140B+ holding Coca-Cola, AmEx, and Apple for decades while barely trading. The wealthiest investors on earth treat the market like owning pieces of great businesses, not like a video game. They buy exceptional companies, add on weakness, and let time and compounding do the work. Frequent trading is just a hidden tax on your future wealth. Myth 5: “Options are the fast lane to millions" Reality: In 15 years I have never seen a single client build tens or hundreds of millions consistently with options. Zero. I have seen many who started with $1-3M, ignored options, and turned it into $20-100M+ by simply owning great stocks for a decade. Slow beats exciting every time. Myth 6: “If it’s trending on X or in the headlines, I have to buy now" Reality: By the time something is screaming across headlines and social media, the easy money has already been made. Headlines are lagging indicators. Noise on X is intentionally juicy because it drives clicks, volume, and liquidity for institutions to distribute or accumulate quietly. If everyone is talking about it, you’re the exit liquidity. Myth 7: “I need to follow the right guru who can time the exact top and bottom” Reality: Nobody—no one—consistently times the market 100% accurately or perfectly. Not Cathie Wood, not Michalel Burry, not Tom Lee. not your favorite X account with the rocket emojis. Even the best have spectacular wins and painful losses. The difference between them and the crowd? They have an edge, a process, and the emotional control to stick to it when they’re wrong half the time. Stop looking for the perfect entry and exit. Start looking for the highest-quality businesses you can own for the next decade. Myth 8 “I can supercharge my returns with 2× or 3× leveraged ETFs like TSLL, CONL, NVDL, SOXL" Reality: These products are mathematically engineered to destroy retail capital over anything longer than a few weeks or months—and most holders don’t even understand why. They are not designed for all retail to win. Final Thought The stock market is the greatest wealth-creation machine ever invented — but only if you stop playing it like a casino. Do less. Own better assets. Wait longer. That’s how quiet millionaires and billionaires are actually made! @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @gabz_investing @sheslee @tonylee80 @Nagetheworld @chad_ventures @Hiteshp99

RT @dannycheng2022: How I Time Bottoms Using the Volatility Hole + Descending Blue Ribbon 😄😁😃😀😊 (August 14, 2026) I identify potential market bottoms by combining the Volatility Hole with a descending blue ribbon on my weekly charts. For strong stocks, one Volatility Hole is typically enough, while weaker stocks usually need 2 to 3 Volatility Holes. Once these signals appear, I begin dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into my highest-conviction stocks gradually and aggressively! This is a reliable setup which usually takes 6 weeks to 6 months to fully play out — patience is the key! Further Examples for Illustration 1. $RBRK – Volatility Hole marked the bottom at $49–$50 in the week of April 24, 2026. 2. $HOOD – Volatility Hole marked the bottom at $66–$77 in the week of April 10, 2026. 3. $GOOGL – Volatility Hole marked the bottom at $166–$174 in the week of May 23, 2025. 4. $MSFT – Volatility Hole marked the bottom at $367–$400 in the week of March 20, 2026. @cantonmeow @sheslee @Hiteshp99 @tonylee80 @matthughes13

Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.

How I Time Bottoms Using the Volatility Hole + Descending Blue Ribbon 😄😁😃😀😊 (August 14, 2026) I identify potential market bottoms by combining the Volatility Hole with a descending blue ribbon on my weekly charts. For strong stocks, one Volatility Hole is typically enough, while weaker stocks usually need 2 to 3 Volatility Holes. Once these signals appear, I begin dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into my highest-conviction stocks gradually and aggressively! This is a reliable setup which usually takes 6 weeks to 6 months to fully play out — patience is the key! Further Examples for Illustration 1. $RBRK – Volatility Hole marked the bottom at $49–$50 in the week of April 24, 2026. 2. $HOOD – Volatility Hole marked the bottom at $66–$77 in the week of April 10, 2026. 3. $GOOGL – Volatility Hole marked the bottom at $166–$174 in the week of May 23, 2025. 4. $MSFT – Volatility Hole marked the bottom at $367–$400 in the week of March 20, 2026. @cantonmeow @sheslee @Hiteshp99 @tonylee80 @matthughes13

$MSFT (August 11, 2026-Daily Chart Follow-Up) The two highlighted volatility holes accurately timed the bottoms on two separate occasions before $MSFT resumed its long-term uptrend. (1) The first volatility hole appeared when $MSFT was trading in the $367–$373 range on April 1. (2) The second volatility hole formed when the stock traded between $359 and $380 on June 29. Congratulations to all $MSFT shareholders—especially my community, where I previously highlighted these bullish signals in my “MUST-READ” posts!

$MSFT (August 7, 2026-Daily Chart) Once again, the Volatility Hole accurately marked the bottom for $MSFT — signals I shared with my X subscribers and Patreon community. Congratulations to all $MSFT shareholders! https://t.co/LADnQ9Vb7v

My Proven Method to Time Bottoms: Volatility Holes + Descending Blue Ribbon (August 6, 2026) How I time bottoms with Volatility Holes + Descending Blue Ribbon Volatility holes combined with the descending blue ribbon are one of the most reliable tools I use to time bottoms. Of course, no one (and no chart) can catch the exact bottom — but this method gets me close enough with high conviction. Note for weaker stocks: Stronger stock usually requires 1 volatility hole to form a bottom, while weaker stocks may require 2–3 additional volatility holes before a true bottom forms. Below are some daily charts where I applied my indicators to time bottoms and shared them with my community over the past year: 1. $HOOD 2. $MSFT 3. $AMD 4. $MU

As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.

Just a TLDR of this week: Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute. -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr. Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over. -> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike. Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble. -> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀 Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks. -> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%

Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.

Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.

$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.

$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.

$MSFT (July 8, 2026-daily chart update) The two volatility holes combined with the descending blue ribbons nailed the recent two bottoms perfectly. To me, this is the best indicator I’ve seen so far — far more reliable than the candles themselves alone. A big thank you to Chad @chad_ventures for helping me test the accuracy of volatility holes across 2,000 charts over the past few months.

$MSFT (June 30, 2026-daily chart update) A freebie for everyone: Last time a volatility hole formed near $355 on March 31, $MSFT rallied sharply to $466.32 by June 1, producing a powerful two-month uptrend. A new volatility hole has appeared today. We’ll see whether this signals the early stage of a bottom in $MSFT over the coming weeks — until proven otherwise.

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution. Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence. The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing. Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies. The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead. So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference. As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT. More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL. But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV. Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs. But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing. Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing. OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot. So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year. I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt. And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals. As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy. Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028. Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well. OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet. So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

$MSFT (June 13, 2026-daily and weekly charts) The bearish yellow candle formed on June 13 on the daily chart accurately signaled the current downtrend. Since then, the subsequent daily candles have former lower highs and lower lows, accompanied by a gradual decrease in whale accumulation, currently at 11.2%. This bearish momentum has extended to the weekly timeframe, where MSFT printed another yellow candle. Resuming the intermediate-term uptrend will require consistent weekly closes above $418. In the near term, attention will focus on whether the $380 zone can provide meaningful support.

At this point I can't tell anymore if markets from $META to $MSFT are correcting because of macro. Or just liquidity pull from $SPCX + index inclusion. And institutions frontrunning Nasdaq 100 and other rebalancing of SpaceX... Anyone know? https://t.co/sTLjsGq95V

I do see a lot of comments about "harvesting the leeks". And I hope my picks like LeaderDrive can help change that perspective around certain equities being good long term holds. I think my only Chinese listed pick was Innolight last year, and that's up triple digits to ATH? All my ideas come from a Western perspective (eg. institutional research from JP Morgan / Goldman Sachs I synthesize) and what US hyperscalers like $GOOGL or $MSFT require. And I do consider about geopolitical tensions + game theory all the time, such as with $AXTI. I think a foreigner's perspective brings a different kind of alpha here, and I'm excited to share how this plays out. Regardless, I'm excited to see how adventures in Chinese equities go! (also, I'm just 1 person posting thoughts throughout the day. there's a lot of conspiracy theories going around saying I'm some Chinese institution. and yes, English is my primary language, i typo sometimes since I post 20+ a day on mobile mostly).

$MSFT (June 8, 2026-monthly chart) Looking back, the bullish red candle has consistently and accurately marked the completion of the bottoming process before every major surge. As I’ve shared with my community, trying to perfectly time the exact bottom doesn’t make sense to me. What truly drives attractive returns is proper position sizing. I will size up on the next bullish candle, and as soon as the next bullish signal appears on my proprietary system, I’ll let the community know ASAP.

$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now. I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT. High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with hyperscalers. Capacity projections at $90 for 2027 timelines were bullish. Now at $150, the story from 2025 is coming together with all the laser fab bottlenecks, GS optical TAM projections, Made in America efforts, $NVDA / $AMD discussion rumors. The only thing holding them back is ATM after ATM, and now another $600m ATM… I personally think it easily rerates once the mechanical selling pressure stops. And personally think it could be a 4-5x return in 12-24M. Also I don’t know who calculates those forward p/e’s on the screener websites but they’re all extremely off.

Hot take: Given $MSFT laptops/PCs are now likely using $NVDA hardware. They might have a shot of taking down $AAPL. Only if Windows OS UI weren’t a flaming pile of garbage compared to how clean Apple OS is. You would think a $3T company would know better UI design by now? https://t.co/OvysxCN21i

Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.

Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so well. Keep in mind: everyone on X was saying “scam management” with $AAOI back at $20-30… Or “scam company” with $AXTI at $12. FUD was pretty extreme. Feels like dejavu again… going long on the next CPO architectural shift like $SIVE or Foci? And getting the same comments. We’ll see if my CPO longs play out the same way like Shunsin does with Innolight or $SIVE does with $LITE. Either way all of those are now up hundreds to thousands of percent.

I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher. The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous. $MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals. Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected. But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3. Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized. Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk... I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.

Agreed high-level directionally, $FLNC compelling at $3B valuation post-earnings after taking a closer look. Very rare to see a US energy player that small get 2 direct Hyperscaler deals... The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT. The hyperscaler deals were framework agreements, which are likely to convert "soon" Q3 this year, and aren't included in numbers. Once that's released it's major positive catalyst, similar to qualification -> volume ramp in semi players. Citi Analyst: "The possibility of a hyperscaler order will likely overshadow everything else in the quarter. We expect a positive reaction to the announcement" I'm going to go ahead and guess they'll likely rerated once they announce their hyperscaler orders maybe anytime in the next 3 months so I jumped on the boat as a short term catalyst trade. (not just 1 but 2) Also, if they hit ~$288M net income off gross-margin expansion ($6B revenue, 13.0% gross margins) from their software segment expansion, ~11.6x fwd p/e for 2027. The current stock price is -50% Feb's prices despite hyperscalers + backlog de-risking the company looks like a great entry point to me (NFA).

Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. MS shows stuff like Orchestration/RAG requiring CPUs. But I'm predicting parts of localized inference to be handled by CPUs more and more... as models like Gemma get lightweight in the future. Not every robot needs to be able to solve the mysteries of the universe. Data centers will need an astronomical amount of traditional CPU compute (AWS Graviton, $GOOGL Axion, and $MSFT Cobalt), which are all ARM based. $META + OpenAI are also buyers of the AGI CPU. And AI will flow down to edge. $15B annual revenue target.. Starting to look reasonable?