Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price floors)... and their operating profit is already absurd. There's a consensus that shortage in 2027 will be much more severe than 2026... Even $SNDK expends gross margins to exceed 80% entering 2030. You're going to hear Acer and other CEOs that want memory prices to go down cite bear cases like CXMT/YMTC, and Chinese players. But just looking at supply procurement that $NVDA is doing + hyperscalers, demand visibility is absurd for the next 5 years. And by that time, cumulative FCF coming in from these take/pay + pricing floor contracts might exceed some of their entire marketcaps so it feels like there's some baseline. Near-term is always volatile (IV dropped a ton across $EWY to $DRAM to $MU), so people with call options likely got nuked, along with underlying prices. But if Samsung is 3x 2027E, has 5 year LTAs with 70% of capacity committed from hyperscalers, and price floors, it's kinda hard to see these names suffer a sustained crash... For optics: - $LITE is literally sold out into 2029, starting discussions into 2030. With demand visibility lasting into 2031… with hyperscalers largely funding the capacity buildout. Their 2028 Greensboro fab expansion was ~$5B in UHP laser capacity revenue alone, yet it’s basically allocated toward $NVDA (50%+ with options for more) and co from channel checks. Existing supply chain bottlenecks are extremely severe as optical content/XPU skyrockets entering 2027-2028. So everything from DSPs/TIAs, photodiodes, lasers, InP/SOI substrates, wafers (epi, SOI, etc) are expected to go brrr. And what does that imply to anyone else with enormous amounts of capacity coming online like $AAOI + $SIVE + $MTSI capacity expansion in 2027? Or other players like Sumitomo / Furukawa? But again it's not quite the same situation as memory since the BOM % is extremely low in a cluster... If micron/samsung raised another 2000% hyperscalers would go bankrupt. But doing that for InP substrates seems possible. Or a 100% increase on CW laser content. I actually thought $LITE was overvalued at $100B+ MC, relative to capacity expansion on your smaller optical players to their respective MCs. So I chose to position accordingly (But lumentum does deserve premiums for demand visibility). For the companies leading the charge like $NVDA / $AVGO / $MRVL: - Nvidia has 70% forward revenue growth FY2028 which is supply constrained growth. - Broadcom 100% Y/Y for 2027/2028 which is also supply constrained growth. - Marvell FY2031 upgraded guidance to $70B-$90B from $46B analyst projections... They all seem to be very happy.... and read through on demand for next 2-3 years is enormous (also echoing what $INTC CEO said today on the panel with $AVGO CEO). So you have overwhelming growth on memory + photonics + from the leaders... But the nuance is not everything in the AI supply chain get the same economic benefit. HBM/Laser/CPU/MLCC and other players in the bottlenecks look to be printing money. And seem to be the largest beneficiaries of the current bottlenecks. Test players are also getting price hikes + capacity allocated by players like $NVDA, but economic impact seems a tad lower than other players since forward P/E for many I modeled were still in the 45x+ range even if you hiked prices like 10-30%. As for capex intensive players... there's some like $IREN ($25-30B for 2027) that despite a deal with Anthropic ended up dropping. I don't think markets seem to appreciate players spending a lot of money + ongoing financing (think they're like halfway through their $6B ATM). Just some hopium for $IREN investors, $NBIS also signed a deal with $META at the start of the year (but markets didn't care at all, since Nebius dropped to ~$70-80 at the lowest point?). But did 6 months later, as the time to revenue inflection gets closer and you're past the ATM/capex window, markets would likely care more. I don't think it's irrational but at the same time, the fundamentals have improved from Mirantis acquisition to others. I also think it was known for awhile it was either OpenAI/Anthropic from CEO comments earlier too? But either way to be a more risk-off environment where funds seem to be rotating to larger names as a flight to safety. $CRWD / $PLTR as just two example, but my take is that the valuations of these rotations are reaching clown levels. And that certain AI supply chain beneficiaries in comparison are undervalued now. I was thinking markets would just rotate to names that are extremely profitable like Samsung or names that have <2X P/E, so it was surprising to see $KOSPI and some legacy memory players get sold off today. Since all of this is colliding with uncertainty about sht macro environments and renewed sustainability concern of AI capex/commitments from frontier labs like OpenAI/Anthropic from due to that FT piece recently. I've always been sounding the alarm about the contractual backlog OpenAI has with $CBRS, $MSFT, $ORCL and others earlier in the year. But OpenAI did just raise $122B or so , so I don't quite think they're at risk of going down anytime soon. I also don't think overall capex can just exponentially go up, but even if it stalls / hovers around a certain point or even drops... Capex toward certain areas like optics will still explode as hyperscalers fight over allocations when CPO scale up comes about, but might drop in others where more capacity comes online like test or DRAM. So it's a lot more nuanced than capex down = everything down or vice versa. I also slightly agree with community agreements that open weight models wouldn't lessen demand on AI infrastructure (otherwise $NVDA wouldn't be funneling funds into Reflection), but all the contractual obligations that Anthropic has might get messy if their models/company get cannibalized. Either way, I'd expect some of these frontier lab valuations to likely compress but I do think Jensen knows what he's doing though to avoid contagion. But basically: - Extremely difficult market now, can't just throw money at any AI supply chain company like $GLW and expect it to go up. There's cause for concern of rate hikes mixed with financing per $AVGO CEO but not to the point you just blindly sell off everything. Also I think markets are stupid and ties baskets together so that leads to mispricing + individual buying opportunities with certain chokepoints too. If capacity + demand is visible and forward p/e compresses like $AAOI to single digits off hundreds or thousands of percent growth from hyperscalers off $471m transceiver revenues and hundreds of thousands of monthly ELSFP capacity. Or $SIVE coming online with 100M+ laser capacity + multiple foundries with ASP hikes on lasers. I wouldn't lump them into other AI supply chain names in IP like $RMBS or others. My take is that AI supply chain beneficiaries with closer inflection points, demand visibility, and forward P/E compressing due to economic leverage would likely outperform medium term despite current volatility. TLDR: - Memory strongest risk/adjusted return with LTAs + pricing floors extending to 2030's + buybacks. - My opinion is that optical supercycle for 2027-2028 with CPO/NPO is going to look absurd relative to capacity coming online of smaller suppliers. - Overwhelming fundamentals/growth colliding with sht macro + media scares - Markets are stupid and groups things in baskets and sells them all off together or buys overvalued names, creating short/long opportunities I'd give a prayer to people on short term options given underlying drop + IV decline, but there could be a reversal... who knows. Most valuable thing right now is time.

Can someone explain how media headlines about OpenAI’s ~$50B ARR… (vs. ~$70B from incorrect accounting comparisons with Anthropic) Somehow ends a 3-5 year laser shortage with $AAOI or memory shortage with $MU? Hint: it doesn’t. https://t.co/FiVsvg8I0G

$GOOGL Gemini 4 Argon benchmarks got released. Against GPT-6 Astra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 / Opus 5.5. Still coughing nonstop, so will comment on $MU / $JBL earnings later. I've always thought Google's internal models were stellar, but anecdotally, they seem to get hard nerfed shortly after public release... Maybe because of compute constraints? But yeah, looks like Google is back.

2 myths that blow up retail portfolios (September 27, 2026) Myth 1 Small stocks look like the easy 10x–20x path to wealth, so retail investors bet too heavy. Then the drawdown comes. Panic. They sell the bottom. Most small names are lottery tickets. Nobody knows which one wins. If your portfolio is heavily-loaded with them, one bad stretch can wipe you out. For lottery tickets, I NEVER keep DCAing. That’s important. Only add if conviction is still there and you are willing to stomach more than 90% volatility. Myth 2 Only sub-$10 stocks can easily do 10x. In Jan 2023 I bought $NVDA at $152 × 10,000 shares (pre-split) and sat. 15x+ in 3 years. $MU $70 → $1,000+ in 1.5 years $AMD $76 → $630 in 1.5 years $SNDK $28 → $1,700+ in 1.5 years None were pennies. Quality can 10x. Size it right. Hold. Cheap is not the requirement.

I never catch the exact bottom. I stopped caring. I focus on my own strategies only: 1. A few high-conviction name only 2. Wait for the cycle low to form and prices to stabilize 3. Buy the rebound + breakout 4. Keep accumulating for compounding while the long-term uptrend is intact 5. Size up and concentrate each time Aggressive buying and accumulating is how I make up for missing the low. That’s how I make up for missing the cycle low. First buys were already off the low. Then I kept adding amid retail fear and skepticism and when my indicators flipped bullish: 1. $NVDA $15.20 after ~$10.80 (~41% off the cycle low) → accumulated into $150 2. $PLTR $8.80 after ~$5.84 (~51% off the cycle low) → accumulated into $150 3. $AMD $110 after $76 (~45% off the cycle low) → accumulated into $220 4. $MU $700 after the 10x from $70 — bears called the top → accumulated into $850 One big initial entry is NEVER ENOUGH . Compounding is. When bears scream, check the trend. Alive → buy. Dead → wait. Missing the bottom is normal. Missing the trend is expensive.

$AKAM signs $11.6B compute deal with Anthropic for accelerated CPU workloads demands over 7 years. $AMD to $MU should be happy to hear this… Akamai ests. ~$5.5B of capex to service the $11.6B commitment. Including +$1.7B of 2026 capex specifically to pre-purchase supply chain components like memory. So much for Anthropic/OpenAI calling for an AI slowdown?

I’ve actually entered positions in many tiny Korean companies recently… That actively supply memory, test, machines, etc. to $MU, $SKHY, Samsung, and others like $SMTC + US companies. It’s pretty interesting what you find in the $30-$250m range for optical components, CPUs, memory, and others that are inflecting due to AI. I don’t share these names publicly since risks/volatility is enormous. But one or two going from $40M -> $400m makes the risk/reward worth it for me personally.

Will $MU reach its all-time high soon? https://t.co/xrRZOMTvBT

A few months ago, so many “gurus” who never posted or dared to post a single screenshot of their $MU positions called the top. The second they did, the stock started recovering. Next time they scream “top,” just invert them. You’ll likely time the bottom. And maybe it is time they learned proper TA from Dr. Cat @cantonmeow .

I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time: $AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33% CPUs go brrr $SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61% Lasers go brrr $EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23% Memory go brrr $NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.03% | $IREN +1.73% Compute go brrr Probably most material developments were CPU:GPU ratio expectations + CPU demand (from new AI releases). As well as optical developments from ECOC 2026 (as seen with $MRVL PR + others) Still a lot to catch up on.

The main duo $SKHY and Samsung are having a fun day. I'm still long memory (eg. $EWY / $DRAM ) since if capacity agreements extend 3-5 years... and your analysts model 2.8-3.3x 2027E. Risk/reward is attractive over time. But I think legacy memory a very interesting trade currently due to ASP hike potential.. It also just so happens these same companies procure memory from even smaller memory companies (that might have higher sensitivity)... So if you want to, you can track $PSMC wafer allocations, and find some interesting companies that likely replace $MU discontinued legacy memory through Alliance or supply directly to Samsung. Won't mention them on X, but just throwing out some research ideas.

Transparency is everything. If I didn't have conviction in my top tier core stocks, I wouldn't have wasted a ton of money buying a starter position in $MU months ago.

So on optical vs. photonics... Memory like $MU / $SKHY is in it's current supercycle. -> RBC channel checks for example projects 80-100% HBM ASP hikes for 2027. -> Per $NVDA ER, Hyperscaler capex goes up in 2027. Then you have 68% of hyperscaler capex per Trendforce going to DRAM/NAND. -> 50-70% for next 3-5 years already allocated toward LTAs. So supercycle is here... demand visibility is high and the price hikes are still ongoing. As photonics like $SMTC to $AAOI, I expect to cook heavily in 2027 since we're already seeing widespread optical shortages in 2026. Plus, you're going from $67.7B in 2026 (per GS) to $131.4B TAM in 2027 for optical modules... Which impacts the DSPs/TIAs/lasers/fiber suppliers before CPO scale up really takes off in 2028. I don't think we'll ever see the same scale of memory price hikes, but I do think there's a lot room for more for MC growth in optical supply chains (given smaller starting point eg. $1B CW laser supplier vs $1T memory maker). But still there's room for price hikes on laser content (eg. $15–$20 for 4 70 mW lasers per GS note) since starting point is really cheap... and one component, like cheap InP substrates can break hundreds of billions worth of supply chains downstream. We're already seeing laser price hikes tho from CIOE channel checks confirmed by both Innolight / $SIVE from the Serenity's follower channel checks. So entering uncharted territory. TLDR: Messy thought but, memory has near term earnings power, midst of current supercycle. The next "memory" ASP hikes I'm seeing is clearly legacy memory (DDR2/DDR3/SLC NAND) from cascading bottlenecks. It just looks to be an extension of the memory theme. Maybe MLCC looks similar in terms of earlier cycles. If we were to track supercycle impact on the supply chain in the space... I'm confident next thematic one looks to be photonics entering 2027.

TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.

Some color on current memory environments for the $MU / $SKHY bros: "There is zero risk of memory prices dropping" per Team Group GM Gerry Chen. - Memory module makers have received notices warning of drastic cuts to their 2027 supply allocations. Some could receive 50% or less of their 2026 allocation. - Upstream manufacturers have reportedly sold out nearly all of their 2027–2028 capacity. - DDR5 supply, in particular, is projected to come in at less than 80% of previous expectations. - Chen expects prices to continue rising 20–30% quarter-over-quarter into 2027 (source Digitimes) - Chen's commentary on $MU is that even before their new MegaFab capacity comes online Q4 2027 at the earliest, orders for 2028 through 2029 are already fully booked. So that there's virtually no relief in sight to current shortages. Sharply lower allocations, fully booked capacity into 2029, and future price hikes doesn't quite sound like the AI buildout is slowing down.

I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab. -> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition. Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself 2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown). It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability. Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons" 3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given. It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes: -> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China. If they wanted to slow down, they could have done so themselves at any point in time: Yet everyone is still fighting over the scarce resources to run AI as seen with memory procurement from Samsung going all the way to 2031. Or the $NVDA / $AVGO supply constrained 70-100%+ Y/Y growth protections. So I suggest people unfollow the clowns on X that predict AI stocks from $NVDA to $TSM to $MU will crash for engagement. All this does is cause retail to panic short term and hand over the keys to the kingdom over to others.

solana:7Lob7rg43kWwmreuxfSTuohun2atBHCXBUkW6KSfpump (September 12, 2026-Weekly Chart) My weekly chart for solana:7Lob7rg43kWwmreuxfSTuohun2atBHCXBUkW6KSfpump from February 2025 to September 2026 shows four bullish red candles, including this week. Most of the time, they have been spot-on signals. Let’s see whether the solana:7Lob7rg43kWwmreuxfSTuohun2atBHCXBUkW6KSfpump can continue its mid-term uptrend in the weeks to come. Validation: a weekly close above 7,171.52. Invalidation: a weekly close below 6,802.5. For those who hold memory stocks and ETF such as $DRAM, $MU, $SNDK, blockstack:native, $WDC, and $SKHY, always keep an eye on this Korean index: solana:7Lob7rg43kWwmreuxfSTuohun2atBHCXBUkW6KSfpump. @cantonmeow @Hiteshp99 @starship_ride @niker8202 @tonylee80

Volatility Hole + Ugly Charts: How the Recent Bottoms Were Timed (September 12, 2026) Don’t chase when every indicator flips bullish. That’s usually the sign the big move has already started. Start DCAing when the chart looks ugly… then uglier… then ugliest. That’s when retail fear peaks. A better way is when my proprietary Volatility Hole indicator appears. I’ve shared those setups and will continue to share them with my community when they show up again. Over the past few months I’ve used this approach to time bottoms on quite a few names and shared the setups with my community, highlighting my buy orders for Tier 3 members — and even sharing some of them openly on X : $PLTR: $110 → $130 (while most were calling for $60–$80) $HOOD: $70 → $100 $NBIS: $180 → $200 $NOW: $90 → $100 $DELL: $250 → $260 $MU: $700 → $730 Learn to bet against retail sentiment and follow the right indicator when the market next offers big discounts. @cantonmeow

Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro. - $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations) - $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027. - $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training + inference from internal investor documents (WSJ). - Even the Pentagon (US gov) is looking to fund the AI buildout, with $5B potentially into Fluidstack. What sectors do I think capex flows hit the hardest? Photonics + Memory. Trendforce for example est. DRAM and NAND to be 68% of hyperscaler capex in 2027. So when all that memory procurement spend hits the balance sheets of $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, $SKHY with 70-80%+ margins. I don't think these companies care about short term macro scares. And when your leading memory companies are all allocating capacity for DDR5/HBM or high end memory, with little visibility on legacy memory supply coming online. What does that say about the durability of ESMT/Etron/Winbond and others? And when your optical content/GPU goes up for rubin ultra + $META / $GOOGL TPU v9, etc. Alongside TAM eg. $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 optical module forecasts. Who benefits from supplying all that lasers during a shortage other than $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR? I think the overwhelming fundamentals + growth of some of the AI sector companies will outperform macro.

Wow, HBM reportedly drove up AI accelerator/card prices by 20-50% in China. So $SKHY, Samsung, $MU, should be happy to hear this: - Huawei has raised indicated pricing for the Ascend 950DT 20–50% above quotes from just 2 months ago - Cambricon's upcoming 690 is reportedly +20–30% Reuters stated that HBM acquired through grey market channels in China can cost several times regular pricing. As someone who is long memory, I'm happy about memory causing this much inflation.

$MU (September 10, 2026-Daily Chart) Let's keep it simple! Bullish setup: red ribbon is unfolding, and an inverse head-and-shoulders is playing out. Price has broken above the downtrend line with rising whale accumulation, now at 78.9%! The bears told you to sell over the past few months, but the long-term uptrend remains intact on my charts. Follow the right and genuine people, not the fake furus!

Many people are fighting the trend of $MU. Here's an objective view: Downtrend =&gt; forming inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern =&gt; breaking out of the downwards trend line All while finding support at the rising weekly Bull Market Support Band. You tell me. https://t.co/8U0Y9RcdaT

Still 9 hours till the market opens. Can’t wait to watch the bears get squeezed on $NBIS, $MU and $PLTR.

When bears told me that the top is in, I keep holding $MU in my various accounts. The recent bullish signals for $MU and $SNDK have been shared with Tier 2-3 community and above all, in my regular bullish list.

Is there any other industry... Where every investor is cheering for shortages and price hikes? SED reported today that: Samsung / $SKHY "stockpiles have fallen to less than 10 days of supply, and a severe shortage could emerge next year, according to a new forecast" KB Securities said that the memory market next year will see "the tightest supply conditions in history" KB Securities projects memory's share of AI infrastructure costs to expand from 40% this year to 57% next year, with others like TrendForce placing next year's figure at 68% (total hyperscaler capex, pretty wild forecast attached) "Both stocks have fallen 38% from their peaks over the past three months, pushing their price-to-earnings ratios based on next year's expected results down to about three times." Likewise, commentary around Phison stated they expect extremely tight NAND supply in 2027, so hard to see memory flooding the market or prices collapsing next year... They gave some color that "soaring NAND prices have forced some Chinese consumer module makers to liquidate inventory, giving Phison opportunities to buy lower-priced stock", so it does show some price declines can coexist with broader shortages. TLDR: KOSPI + read through for other names like $MU / $SNDK might be happy for 2027 given demand causing shortages + infra spend share increase.

Got curious and decided to track which thesis of mine were still up 100%+ YTD after the recent drawdown: 1. $AXTI - InP substrates 2. $NBIS - Neoclouds 3. $MU - Memory 4. $INTC - Foundry 5. $LITE - Photonics 6. $IQE - Epiwafers 7. $AAOI - Photonics 8. $GDRZF - Venezuela 9. $AEHR - Machines 10. $EWY (volatility + underlying) 11. $RPI - AI orchestration 12. $SOI - SIlicon Photonics Substrates 13. $SNDK - Memory 14. $SIMO - Memory 15. $MRVL - ASICs 16. Nanya - memory 17. Unimicron - substrates 18. $ARM - CPUs 19. $SIVE - Photonics From H1 2026, around 19 names across several themes up 100%+ still from the selection of winners. Since many like $TSEM / $HPS.A / $LPK / $ALRIB fell out of the range. (obviously not all are green like Shunsin / $XFAB and disappointed by performance). Regardless, glad a lot of my ideas turned out decently, rather than just being known for one like $AXTI. To the point the Chinese community gave my investing style a name "Perilla Leaf Theory". Again not too sure if my new ideas replicate this performance again in H2 2026 or 2027... For H2, my new thesis was on $CCXI for humanoids/downstream physical AI shift and ESMT for DDR2/DDR3/legacy memory. But I'll keep sharing my core ideas and thought process for free so people can poke holes or debate it until things get validated.

Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery. Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed! Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others. But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does. I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect: - There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end. - $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising. - $SNDK expects 80% gross margins to continue into 2030… (welcome to S&P 100) - and once again you have long term visibility into 2031 now with companies like Samsung Memory is very really volatile… some of my positions are up 270%+, so I find it a bit easier to hold through volatile periods. But regardless, operating fundamentals doesn’t always align with short term price movements. Same concept can be applied to other sectors.

Just an update to my DDR2/DDR3 memory idea with ESMT. They reported August revenue (Taiwan sometimes does monthly reporting): June revenue: ~$153M July: ~$214M August (new): ~$249M vs. $35.3m (last year) Monthly revenue has increased ~63% in two months despite reportedly similar 2026 wafer allocations to 2025 (MoneyDJ report). The profitability is already really high as seen with July's monthly revenue (where they reported ~$109M net income). So if pricing holds, and revenue increases, that would be very nice... Now a lot of US people don't really care since it's in Taiwan, but if you're in the $MU / $SKHY, $SNDK trade. Just educational purposes, it's a second order effect where your leading memory players prioritize AI/DC higher end memory and reduce allocations to older generations (causing shortages). But... DDR4 since prices going up too much, so older gen memory products (DDR4) are getting redesigned with older gen memory (DDR3). And DDR3 products with DDR2. And so on. Causing cascading supply chain shortages. (DDR2 for example is boring/old memory used for cameras, printers, automotive back in the 2000s and not many ppl make them anymore). And even your old DDR2 suppliers like Winbond are gradually withdrawing from the market too... So ESMT is the beneficiary of DDR3/DDR2 shortages. TLDR: ESMT August revenue was ~$249M, up from ~$214M last month.

Just taking a look at Leopold's Situational Awareness Q2 13F latest holdings as of June 30th: 1. $SNDK - $5.674B 2. $MU - $5.574B 3. $BE - $1.899B 4. $TSM - $1.265B 5. $NBIS - $1.232B 6. $CRWV - $744.5M 7. $CORZ - $665.6M 8. $STM - $584.3M (new) 9. $APLD - $469.0M 10. $RIOT - $468.2M 11. $SHAZ - $456.8M 12. $IREN - $433.3M Less material positions includeed $CLSK, $KEEL, sei-network:native, $WYFI, $BTDR, $TE, $HIVE, $VSH, and others. Seems like Situational Awareness concentrated around memory (Sandisk, Micron), that have low forward multiples but high visibility into 2030. As well as Anthropic/energy/power adjacent from colo/neoclouds + Bloom. Some of the bottlenecks like the MLCC trade, he couldn't see play out (Taiyo Yuden, etc). due to July's liqudation. And some are new like $STM (eg. MCU price hikes). With core winners of everything such as $TSM (but less high-beta). This looked similar to my H2 2026/early 2027 portfolio with Nebius, Micron, TSM, colo players and others as core focus. (I've heavily concentrated on upstream networking/legacy memory currently, with a lot of name overlap). But always cool to see what others are doing.

Watch for the Volatility Hole paired with the next bullish red candle on the monthly chart next time. When this setup forms, the odds of a strong upside move are very high. Buy and add aggressively, stay convicted, and hold! Proven examples of 10x-20x stocks $PLTR: $5.84 → $207 $HOOD: $7.90 → $153.80 $HIMS: $4.49 → $70 $MU: $94 → $1,254 @cantonmeow @sheslee @tonylee80 @Jimmy_tesla_01 @niker8202

It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.

Okay just to simplify this: There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers. A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos. Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato. But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet.. Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer. So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price goes up. So ESMT needs more carrot seeds (from PSMC). But PSMC is running low on carrot seeds to grow the carrots. So PSMC charges ESMT more for the seeds. But the price ESMT sells the carrots at are much higher than what PSMC hikes the carrod seed price. now... ESMT is making enough from selling carrots that it traded 1.9x P/E off July's earnings. Can ESMT keep selling these carrots through 2027? All the other farmers thinks so since it's both hard + low incentive to migrate their valuable potato farms back to carrot farms.

$MU: goes from $133B -&gt; $1T+ in a year. $RDDT after a 2-month correction: "Garbage stock" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB

$MU (August 27, 2026-Daily Chart) In Panel 1, three standout momentum bars appear at $889, $934, and $979. The first two levels currently form a support zone. $MU needs to clear $979 to unlock further price momentum, with the next resistance cluster at $1,036, $1,064, and $1,096.

I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.

@aleabitoreddit Serenity, how bullish are you on memory after last nights NVDA call? Which names tradable in the US do you prefer ? Is there anything beyond $SNDK $MU $WDC

$CLSK and $MARA (August 26, 2026-Daily Chart) Most miners and data centers can’t even break previous resistance levels, let alone hit all-time highs. Imagine holding most of them or betting too heavy in them while watching other stocks from this cycle go 10X—names like $NVDA, $PLTR, $NBIS, $HOOD, $MU and $SNDK. I’ve never been a fan of most data centers; they’re largely speculative and keep diluting shareholders. A small position as a lottery ticket is fine, though!

Volatility Hole: The Indicator That Printed Millions in Each of My Conviction Stocks (August 22, 2026) By using the proprietary indicator, the Volatility Hole, I have successfully made millions in each of these stocks: $PLTR, $HOOD, $MU, and $AMD. My strategy is simple and consistent: I dollar-cost average (DCA) weekly — not just for a few days or weeks — every time this highly reliable signal appears. Patreon and X subscribers get the alerts first, so they can prepare and act on the same opportunities. I’ve already shared screenshots of my gains on X, so I won’t repeat them here. This isn’t about bragging. This weekend, I’ll continue highlighting the stocks I believe will lead this cycle in my Weekly Insights, exclusive to the Tier 3 community on Patreon. Thank you to my loyal community for your ongoing support and trust. Don't forget that patience and conviction are the key to creating wealth and there is no short cut at all! Let's keep making money! To those who unsubscribed: you missed the current uptrend, and you’ll likely keep missing the next ones. Very few people put in this level of work and share their TA this openly and selflessly.

Still waiting for $TSLA to crash to $250… $PLTR to $60… $MU to $500… $NVDA to $120? That’s what most of the “gurus” were screaming last month and this month. My charts are more reliable than their predictions. Follow for the real levels — not the fear porn!

$MU Don’t forget that so many fake gurus told us that $MU had already topped weeks and even months ago. Know who stays stubbornly bearish while pretending to be market masters. Know who flip-flops. Know who deletes old calls the moment they’re proven wrong. Know who actually posts transparent screenshots on X — no filters, no excuses! @HeidingOut @cantonmeow @redfoxryder @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @tonylee80

$MU (August 17, 2026-Daily Chart) We’re so back. The Point of Control sits at $795 — the critical support zone that must hold. As long as $MU stays above it, the upward momentum remains fully intact. The descending blue ribbon is giving way to a rising red ribbon, signaling a bullish trend reversal, in line with steady whale accumulation. Whenever bullish signals emerge on daily/weekly/monthly charts, I will highlight them in the title "MUST-READ" posts. Don't miss them

Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...

I think we're seeing AI server MLCC demand cause an interesting effect... with tightening capacity for consumer/general-purpose MLCCs. If you get Vietnam flashbacks like I do to $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix -> Legacy DRAM: My thesis is we'll see the same thing here maybe late H2, early 2027 with consumer/broad MLCCs. From July 6th: "the crowding-out effect from AI-oriented high-end MLCC production has begun spilling over into both the automotive and consumer markets." July 28th: "AI Demand Pushes Japanese and Korean MLCC Suppliers to Record Monthly Shipments; Consumer-Grade Order Spillovers Continue to Surge" Aug 12: As [MLCC] capacity shifts from consumer grades to AI-oriented products... (Trendforce) Aug 12: China's electronics market channel checks found 22µF and 47µF MLCCs (used more broadly) out of stock. Then found and said certain manufacturers had stopped taking orders. (for reference: Walsin said high-volume smartphone/PC products such as... 22µF, so it's broader MLCCs) Obviously Samsung Electro-Mechanics/Murata are main beneficiaries of AI server MLCC ramp. But companies with large market share of overall MLCCs like Taiyo Yuden (6976, disclosure: I have positions) with less AI server share, would be a major beneficiary of this. Fun part is, we're only in H2 2026, so the next major bottleneck should be fun!

US Government urges $AAPL not to buy Chinese memory chips. $MU, $SKHY, and Samsung are happy to hear this... Hilariously enough, CXMT/YMTC is price hiking too, so it's not exactly "cheap Chinese memory that floods the market". Apple once upon a time actually had extreme supplier leverage before the AI boom.

The $SHKY, Samsung, $SNDK, $MU memory bottleneck never changed anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D

Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.

My Proven Method to Time Bottoms: Volatility Holes + Descending Blue Ribbon (August 6, 2026) How I time bottoms with Volatility Holes + Descending Blue Ribbon Volatility holes combined with the descending blue ribbon are one of the most reliable tools I use to time bottoms. Of course, no one (and no chart) can catch the exact bottom — but this method gets me close enough with high conviction. Note for weaker stocks: Stronger stock usually requires 1 volatility hole to form a bottom, while weaker stocks may require 2–3 additional volatility holes before a true bottom forms. Below are some daily charts where I applied my indicators to time bottoms and shared them with my community over the past year: 1. $HOOD 2. $MSFT 3. $AMD 4. $MU

SK Hynix, $MU , and Samsung have sold out of 2027 capacity for DRAM/HBM. $SNDK, Samsung, Micron current annual NAND capacity has been sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to finalize allocations by August 2026. - Customers are being allocated only 60–70% of the volumes they initially requested - industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe moment of memory shortage - Allocation amounts are mostly decided, but final shipment pricing will be determined closer to delivery Source: Digitimes, citing industry sources. Hard to see those memory "oversupply" claims in early-mid 2027 when they're all sold out of capacity already.

Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.

I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.

$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.

Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.

Honestly, I love seeing all the bearish posts on X calling for $MU to plummet to $500 on a head and shoulders pattern. You already know what will happen when the majority are bearish and piling up buy orders at lower levels!

Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.

$MU (July 17, 2026-daily chart update) Every day I share both bullish and bearish signals with my community on X and my patreon. It’s always your decision to follow or ignore them — I neither impose my ideas on anyone nor give financial advice. I’m not on X to please people by sharing bullish posts all the time or grow followers. I’m simply here to provide clear, objective technical analysis on most charts.

Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM. (source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).

Bullish signal is easy to share. Bearish one? Equally important — but often ignored. The bearish yellow candle for $MU, shared with my patreon community on July 1, has played out accurately so far. Staying objective beats staying popular! https://t.co/1art6YO5JB

Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB supply shortages are projected to persist until 2028, and component shortages/price hikes are already forcing ODMs like Inventec to issue conservative H2 shipment - DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing custom ASICs to bypass $NVDA (kinda expected by now). - Anthropic has achieved a $30B ARR and is projected to hit >$1B in Q3 profit. Turns out these frontier labs are more profitable than people think. - US admin pressured $AAPL to source from $INTC, in exchange for tariff exception. Kinda pressuring alignment away from TSM. - $TSM plans a 30x expansion of its Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) capacity by 2028, growing from 500 to 25,000 wafers per month - Hanmi Semiconductor is entering the CoWoS packaging equipment market - $NVDA and NTT hosting a conference July 24th to discuss CPO strategies. - 5x general NAND flash price hike this year, market size $489B by next year triggered by RAG/inference. Samsung and SK Hynix make emergency fab investments, NAND equipment suppliers go brrrr. - Gas turbine bottleneck, 40% supply gap accompanied by staggering 5-year delivery cycles (mega-fabs need them for mass production). - AI probe card assembly has hit a severe bottleneck apparently. Which is attempted to by solved with things like Innovation Service's machines. - Nanya, 79.5% gross margins reported, memory go brr. 4x capex for capacity/advanced packaging. - CXMT's STAR Market IPO on July 16, so should bring a lot of attention to memory players in that supply chain. - KYEC $1.4B investment into US for $TSM Arizona output test facilities. Lot of these players like $AMKR and others should go brr in 2028. - $INTC CEO warned last month that helium could hinder the manufacturing costs and delivery times of AI chips - 3D NAND word lines are shifting from Tungsten to Molybdenum starting at the 375-layer node - SambaNova secured JPM for AI inference and raised $1B at an $11B valuation. - HBM prices projections to double in 2027 as $NVDA Rubin platform drives demand. - $MU provides $500 million in funding to support GlobalWafers' US manufacturing capacity - $META 'Iris' will enter mass production in September via $AVGO and TSMC and Meta aims to double computing power to 14GW by 2027. - Largan Precision has secured its first CPO FAU order, mass production slated for middle of next year (kinda indication around Foci and others). - Samsung and SK Hynix have delayed the implementation of hybrid bonding packaging technology for HBM4 apparently - Memory costs (DRAM/NAND) have reached 60% of the BOM for sub-$400 smartphones, causing a severe volume contraction. - SK Hynix successfully rasied $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR - $TSLA issued procurement guidelines requiring suppliers to reach weekly production of 1,000 units by September and double to 2,000-2,500 by year end for its 3rd gen Optimus robot. Apparently Alliance Technology and A-Link may be in this supply chain harmonic reducers and vision lenses? Kinda go through all this stuff every day, but don't wanna be a news reporter so just consolidated stuff I found interesting.