Dashboard/$PSMC
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2 tweets · last 180 days
@aleabitoreddit
22d ago

The main duo $SKHY and Samsung are having a fun day. I'm still long memory (eg. $EWY / $DRAM ) since if capacity agreements extend 3-5 years... and your analysts model 2.8-3.3x 2027E. Risk/reward is attractive over time. But I think legacy memory a very interesting trade currently due to ASP hike potential.. It also just so happens these same companies procure memory from even smaller memory companies (that might have higher sensitivity)... So if you want to, you can track $PSMC wafer allocations, and find some interesting companies that likely replace $MU discontinued legacy memory through Alliance or supply directly to Samsung. Won't mention them on X, but just throwing out some research ideas.

677 likes20 rt72 replies
@aleabitoreddit
26d ago

Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory... Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes. Price hikes projections expected for H2: - SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1 - High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1 - ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3 - DDR2: +35-40% in Q3 - LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3 - DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising As a consolidated view... Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026. Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes (eg. +45% DRAM wafers from $PSMC) So I'd expect Q3 earnings for a lot of the legacy memory fabless companies to cook

87 likes8 rt14 replies
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