Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs: 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO. Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to Ayar. Should go brrr 2027 but markets are forward looking, so ramps + qualifications should get priced in now. LPK Laser - Glass core substrate "monopoly" with LIDE. "More than 80% of major global players have selected our equipment for process validation, learning and scaling to mass production" Soitec - Silicon photonics SoI substrate pure monopoly while coming out of legacy drag segments. Raspberry Pi - Was my fun idea around Raspberry Pis being used for AI hardware deployments. Previously this thing was mainly educational or hobby boards, but now used for edge/local AI. Just thought revenue increase would be extremely material and it played out well. IQE - Critical epiwafer player for your Western photonics like Macom, Tower, Lumentum, and others. Was kinda going under, but thought their latent capacity relative to Landmark was undervalued. Also given how important it was, I thought that your downstream players + Govs wouldn't let it go under, so it was more of a moonshot idea earlier in the year. Lot more derisked now, very important. Riber - Kinda monopoly in the MBE space, exposure to Quantum / quantum dot + silicon photonics. Found out from OSINT help from a friend latentvalue that Microsoft Quantum was buying their machines, so this was direct hyperscaler validation + kinda de-risked at current MCs. XFab - SiC foundry backed by EU/US CHIPS Act with power semi upside. (152% Y/Y growth for their sic vertical). Main growth was their silicon photonics foundry past 2027 that's getting evaled by nvidia. And that they're leading Europe's value chain efforts in photonics, kinda like an early tower semi. We'll see how this plays out, thought power semi exposure + low P/B would derisk the company until they scale their photbunchonics efforts. From my own personal thoughts: Out of the maybe $SOI has already been re-rated the most? But I'm holding anyway. $LPK and $ALRIB I think are still undervalued despite their monopolies. $RPI is just kinda seeing how things go at this point, would be hilarious if they ended up like a mini nvidia for low end edge ai. $IQE probably has a long way to go given new tower long term agreement, alongside macom. And if they convert latent capacity, I still think it has a chance of rerating like landmark. $XFAB idk if im missing something or are markets missing something. you have nvidia as a direct eval of their silicon photonics foundry, and it's trading below replacement P/B. i think im right though. $SIVE I see has the highest upside out of all of them given laser company ability to vertically integrate, acquire companies downstream to make their lasers more valuable, etc. Just like coherent/lumentum. There's like 1-2 more random ones that aren't really material, but just in general. These are the ones I've liked the most.

$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.

@aleabitoreddit I need another $SIVE serenity 😗

Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports. Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes) My optical positions are very happy to hear this: From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI (lasers) / $LITE / $SIVE, and others. Taiwanese optical players like VPEC, Landmark, and others should go brrr as well. Just to recap: the photonics market, especially for laser companies is moreso "how much can you make" rather than how much demand is there. InP substrates was one of the main bottlenecks affecting upstream capacity. So if you're able to make more = more revenue.

This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.

If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China 🇨🇳: set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America 🇺🇸: bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX, don’t care about valuations Europe 🇪🇺: from $SIVE to $SOI, cares more about water usage than the AI buildout. Somehow can only look at past 12 months. (Belgium is cool so far), looking at you France + Sweden Korea 🇰🇷: leveraged degens. I’ve never seen a market so volatile. Equivalent of 50x hyperliquid traders but with stock markets. Japan 🇯🇵: somehow supportive of everything, haven’t seen any Japanese person aggressively bear post and short stocks before. Not enough data on other places yet like Latin America, but will have some soon enough ig.

It’s been officially 3 months since I posted my $SIVE long thesis back at 4 SEK. This idea is now up ~1900%… With many US institutions from JPM to Fidelity only recently entering positions. Probably my 2nd greatest thesis of all time after $AXTI. Did you listen anon? https://t.co/dSZ6AeTJYL

Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.

Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.

I like $SIVE

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.

This really is making me wonder. What happened is retail based on @aleabitoreddit and some other frontier analysts front ran the optics/photonics cycle. Then we started seeing statements that $JPM Fidelity etc have been buying $SIVE Now we start hearing a narrative saying "you know what? You're WAY too early with that stuff. You should sell it." So they want us to sell it right as they're accumulating it 🤔

Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i

Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.

Just seen both BlackRock and Fidelity showing up as $SIVE institutional ownership? Is this completely new? https://t.co/OmdTm6wMqE https://t.co/1BwMfLf31w

I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583

A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE: Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace). This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication. The bigger implication is not the contract size: But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial). Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract. Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers... This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)

Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)

I think the implications of JP Morgan's disclosure of buying 5.25%+ of $SIVE is a lot greater than people think. > $135M is pennies to US institutions. They can easily acquire 25% with their capital. They're just constrained by the amount of float that's available from retail to buy. > Signals to other institutions that other large institutions are buying up the float. Which triggers more institutional interest. > Given float is heavily shorted by Swedish Hedge Funds and random algorithmic ones. If large US institutions like JP Morgan are starting to buying the float, it's a blaring signal to start and cover. Of course, most of all, this is validating thesis of giving ideas to retail first to frontrun the institutions + the next CPO supercycle.

Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers. Just in the last month alone. First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers. https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM

On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line. $RPI is the perfect example: 1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist. 2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications. 3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI. 4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling. Earnings comes out and I was right. Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%). So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess. For stuff like $AXTI: 1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates" 2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing. 3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc. 4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS. 5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped). 6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls. 7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations. 8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc. A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up. With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing: 1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player. 2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here. 3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows). 4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts? 5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess. _ I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life. So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years. Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels. Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs. Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid. So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff. Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers. Especially if I’m a good enough investor. So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized). I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun. And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name. So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.

Sigh. I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen. Enough retail holders got shaken off, and now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional). JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month to 5%+ ownership this month…

$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.

Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of the CPO supercycle. Starting to make more sense why there’s a lot of false news being published. Especially if they’re facing infinite losses?

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. And so on… Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.

EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union" - "extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics" - "strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies - "develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies" === More specifically policy specifically focuses on -> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE) -> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…” -> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB) -> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players" -> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework. Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category. Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework. TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now. We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.

GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.

Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes. To bridge early European companies to volume production. I personally expect my two thesis ideas to be large beneficiaries: - $XFAB, given they're leading Europe's SiPH value chain, with Nokia and Nvidia evaluating them for photonics HVM. - and $SIVE as Europe's leader for lasers in AI datacenters, scaling lasers to mass production in 2027. More details will be announced today, but this is a structural tailwind to photonics critical to Western and especially EU supply chains.

$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm

DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.

Just a heads up, I've uncovered a bot farm with dozens of accounts used to spread disinformation about $SIVE in the past few days. This illegal campaign likely stems geographically from Asia. As these accounts were used to do marketing for the same Asian projects like Alchemy Pay. Or bought brand new bought X accounts. All of which have no activity, but have an abrupt shift in timeline to repeating false claims about selling $SIVE positions and telling others to sell. With some getting caught using AI prompts to create a negative reply. This will be passed along to the SEC for investigation given there's certain traceability logs available. While the regulators investigate, maybe not a good idea follow along false bot farm advice.

-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.

There's a new $SIVE short seller with 0 clue what they're talking about. 1. $MRVL Celestial is likely buying lasers directly with $SIVE as the laser supplier, not through $POET. As they've been identified as a likely direct customer since 2023. An analogy is if O-Net / Enablence / Sivers, and O-Net worked directly with $SIVE (which they have) but vertically integrated away Enablence. They're still likely buying $SIVE lasers. 2. $SIVE is clearly the likely $AAPL supplier for lasers. I use the term likely, because although markets are 99% sure, the BOM is confidential. The short seller is claiming it's TASC, which I've already identified multiple times as an Apple supplier. But falsely they're conflating two different generations of Apple Watches with photodiodes and lasers for glucose monitoring to say $SIVE is not a supplier. 3. US NASDAQ listing is likely incoming soon after the new board meeting and shareholder vote. Upgrading accounting standards and having immaterial changes doesn't mean anything. 4. Ayar labs hasn't scaled up yet. Ayar specifically listed $SIVE as their primary laser supplier in their website. With their executives going out on statement that they couldn't built their products without $SIVE lasers. Claiming $SIVE isn't shipping volume to Ayar when their CPO products haven't ramped is stupid. 5. There's zero leak around news for listing. Hilarious coincidence and management has always been pursuing NASDAQ listing since last year. Short sellers keep repeating this disinformation to try and profit. 6. I've never seen such hilarious BS around Win Semi volume scaling. High confidence in SpaceX and $AVGO supply chain critical foundry. 7. Using arguments from authority saying they know an engineer and then having them confusing architectural differences between $LITE / $COHR and $SIVE is hilarious. Regardless -distorting financial statements -conflating different gen architectures and timeline NRE - reiterating false accusations to profit off short term sentiment is likely going to see them turn into a long as CPO/Jabil partnerships volume ramp.

It’s mainly just “follow the leader” algorithmic selloff in current photonics markets. Most laser/optical related companies from $AAOI to $SIVE seem tied to $LITE performance… Despite individual fundamentals improving. Eg. (AOI with $AMD / $NVDA discussions). Algorithms don’t differentiate well, especially if something is higher beta than others. But if you know something markets don’t like Sivers with more optical transceiver customers unannounced. You can outperform in the long run. There’s a lot of 20%-30% intraday moves nowadays, so I personally wouldn’t trade these movements. Just going long on the Kingmakers in photonics thematically since I’m confident in exponential TAM growth.

This is the biggest TAM expansion + revenue driver with $SIVE, markets haven’t noticed. Sivers is actively working with new pluggable optical transceiver companies. After Jabil 1.6T LRO used Sivers lasers to achieve a “relatively dramatic moat”. “Actively working”, so co-development / qualification stage. My guess is we’ll likely see optical transceiver companies (eg. Innolight), announce they’re using $SIVE lasers soon.

It’s actually just a cultural thing in Sweden to dislike anything special or growth related. They’re telling everyone to “give up on markets” Don’t take it to heart, just something to laugh at and welcome. Since it shifts control to US funds + likely makes Sivers a US company down the road. Because it’s cultural, many will start crying if they see $SIVE balloon forward revenue pipelines 77% from $JBL photonics 1.6T LRO in just a few months. Even more so if they learn Sivers is likely to supply more pluggable optical transceiver players. You’ve already kinda seen it with $SOI, at this point even with local French firms/retail shorting + negative press.. US institutions/investors don’t really care anymore since they own a large part of the float, and that’s up 4x now. Just from personal ests on share structure: Maybe ~5% Swedish retail ownership to go (down from ~60%+ -> 8% -> 5%)… Which might be 13% of free float. So these types of local media publications are very positive for US investors/institutions. Qualitatively speaking, everyone in Western institutional side of things seem very overwhelming positive on optical companies like $SIVE. Since they’re familiar with Ayar, Celestial, and private CPO leaders compared to a lot of retail or local Swedish funds who don’t understand. And majority of access should unlock after likely NASDAQ listing soon. You’re just witnessing how ownership changes to Western institutions and it’s a good reminder to know what you own so you’re not influenced by Swedish culture.

The past 3 months have been an incredible run for my portfolio, through names like $BRUN, $SIVE, $DGXX and many more. Many of you might not know this but I have actually been following @dannycheng2022 for more than a year now. Our styles are slightly different, I aim for small cap companies while he prefers to compound gains in larger cap stocks. Although the difference in style, his Patreon provides so much macro guidance and it keeps me invested in the markets despite all the FUD (e.g. A.I is a bubble, we’re bound for a huge correction). I have also learnt the importance of position sizing from him (and that’s why I went balls deep on $BRUN). Pairing the insights from his Patreon along with my investing framework has enabled me to reap such gains for the past 3 months. If you haven’t already, please check Danny’s Patreon out, his system is tried and tested, proven to provide value and alpha to many, trader or investor! (I sincerely hope this screenshot doesn’t mark the top) - Leki, the investing monkey 🙊

I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory… With $AXTI to $SOI to $SIVE will be studied in future history books? Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history. Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.

I think $SIVE should just become a full American company, and use NASDAQ listing as the first step. > US cap table / large ownership + US CHIPS act support already > larger valuation premiums + M&A opportunities. > local Swedish media blatant disinformation from underwater short sellers, isn’t helpful for AI photonics growth > lot of more funding opportunities + support from US institutions / funds / indexes By preserving EU efforts under a subsidiary and having a US parent company. This helps Sivers become a major US optical player, not just a Swedish semi trying to explain itself to local markets that doesn’t understand. I do think management sees a path forward for $SIVE to become the next dominant US photonics giant like $LITE.

Swedish hedge funds really trying anything to save their shorts To bad the Swedes sold all their $SIVE at 25 SEK 😂🫵 Thanks to @ekroth for getting this newspaper https://t.co/VKuADwCJhr

> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs competitors like $LITE ($1.2B mc) Turns out it’s likely sole source for companies like $JBL and primary suppliers for Ayar. > to doubting their revenue opportunities ($2B MC) Turns out they got 77% pipeline growth in just a few months > to doubting their partners like Win Semi’s ability to scale (we are here) Anyone who thinks Win Semi… one of the worlds most important foundries for $AVGO, $LITE, SpaceX supply chains… can’t scale capability by 2028 is a stupid bear. We’re at the point where US retail investors acquired the float off Swedish investors. But I’m expecting US institutions to find a way to shake out US retail like they did with $NBIS or $RKLB before the next supercycle.

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish: - $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess. - More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.” CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already. But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet. - tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds. - “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”… So that’s volume ramp for space - U.S dual listing progressing smoothly No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in. - “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.” Too much demand in photonics - “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well” Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers) TLDR: We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?” To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.” To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought. Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted. Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history. As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.

- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything from laser fab to assembly in America. $471M/month… that’s in 2027, the TAM increases exponentially in 2028. $SIVE is also ramping absurdly high, 77% revenue pipeline growth of the entire company’s history to ~$799M Primarily from photonics… in a single quarter. And they’re projecting 60% gross margins off that. Foci - $NVDA / $TSM primarily FAU supplier and bottleneck for COUPE. Genuinely not sure how this is $2.8B. BOM share for their passive components + FAU are massive in 2028. Just a bit early H1 2026. Shunsin - Legit you see Foxconn get CPO/photonics related orders over and over for $NVDA and others. Just nobody knows the packaging/testing gets done by Shunsin. A lot of contracts are also under Shunsin’s subsidiary too.. so markets/algorithms don’t know what’s coming imo. Runner up is $XFAB, they’ll probably be central to EU CHIPS act 2 for silicon photonics at ~$1.5B MC. And of course SiC/GaN foundries should go brr with 800vdc push by Nvidia. Especially if they’re the only high volume one in United States per Dpt. Of Commerce. And it’s such a low price/book ratio so you’re kinda getting the company upside for free, while US Gov/EU Gov subsidize their capex.

Holy crap, this is the most bullish thing I’ve heard from $SIVE so far. From earnings transcripts: “We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply” (literally anything they make gets bought) Along with: “We see 60% gross margins in the future” (incredibly high) “We have two technologies that can feed into these three supercycles that are currently going on.” (Holy revenue opportunities) My high conviction CPO/photonics long is $SIVE for a reason.

$SIVE basically took their entire revenue pipeline. In the entire company’s history. Then grew that by 77% in the first 3 months. Thats by far the clearest indication of the inflection of the CPO supercycle. It’s probably going to look exponential from here on out. https://t.co/81pYk3Y36V

Only thing to look at with $SIVE earnings is forward growth. Nobody cares about pre-development contract earnings from 2025 or last quarter, especially for qualification cycle optical players. Having 77% growth of opportunity pipelines (revenue volume ramp projections), to $799m In a quarter is absolutely incredible growth. And, I’d expect to see that continue compounding. “The company continues to anticipate several volume production starts within AI data centers” (photonics/lasers). Is also very positive and validates the thesis about volume ramp for photonics. Now next thing to look at is earnings call transcript, once they’re indexed, which is the most important signal of what’s to come. Overall, very positive.

Sivers' CEO on the call, "We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply." $SIVE

Few months ago, a European publication called my $RPI idea: - “mass stupidity” And said: - $RPI shares would: “come crashing back to reality” Then called it a: - “Meme stock”. Earnings report came out? Blew away revenue expectations. It’s very interesting that media can just write all this slander… Then pretend it never happened when it ages so badly. Amount of media slander from $SOI to $SIVE has been pretty incredible.

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables

Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) $SIVE: $4 -> $71 (CPO, critical chokepoints over lasers). $IQE: $12 -> $47 (latent epiwafer capacity, information discovery around downstream photonics companies). $ALRIB: $5 -> $15 (duopoly, synthesis around quantum buyers with photonics growth verticals). And now $XFAB at $9. I’m not always right. But every single one of my European longs thesis have been validated so far by either earnings, investments (eg. $MTSI in IQE) or market returns.

Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.

$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.

Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so well. Keep in mind: everyone on X was saying “scam management” with $AAOI back at $20-30… Or “scam company” with $AXTI at $12. FUD was pretty extreme. Feels like dejavu again… going long on the next CPO architectural shift like $SIVE or Foci? And getting the same comments. We’ll see if my CPO longs play out the same way like Shunsin does with Innolight or $SIVE does with $LITE. Either way all of those are now up hundreds to thousands of percent.

Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.

Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql

I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE. Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation. And likely through local news media too. Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now. https://t.co/U3Euy391l8

FYI, EU Chips Act 2 is today, May 27th. This one is expected to be targeted specially around photonics. There happens to Europe’s leading photonics/laser company called $SIVE over in Sweden. That also received US CHIPS act funding and is critical to Western supply chains. https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq