TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.

Got curious and decided to track which thesis of mine were still up 100%+ YTD after the recent drawdown: 1. $AXTI - InP substrates 2. $NBIS - Neoclouds 3. $MU - Memory 4. $INTC - Foundry 5. $LITE - Photonics 6. $IQE - Epiwafers 7. $AAOI - Photonics 8. $GDRZF - Venezuela 9. $AEHR - Machines 10. $EWY (volatility + underlying) 11. $RPI - AI orchestration 12. $SOI - SIlicon Photonics Substrates 13. $SNDK - Memory 14. $SIMO - Memory 15. $MRVL - ASICs 16. Nanya - memory 17. Unimicron - substrates 18. $ARM - CPUs 19. $SIVE - Photonics From H1 2026, around 19 names across several themes up 100%+ still from the selection of winners. Since many like $TSEM / $HPS.A / $LPK / $ALRIB fell out of the range. (obviously not all are green like Shunsin / $XFAB and disappointed by performance). Regardless, glad a lot of my ideas turned out decently, rather than just being known for one like $AXTI. To the point the Chinese community gave my investing style a name "Perilla Leaf Theory". Again not too sure if my new ideas replicate this performance again in H2 2026 or 2027... For H2, my new thesis was on $CCXI for humanoids/downstream physical AI shift and ESMT for DDR2/DDR3/legacy memory. But I'll keep sharing my core ideas and thought process for free so people can poke holes or debate it until things get validated.

It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.

Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.

Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%

Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi. But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO. A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies… If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers. This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.

OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly) Can often get exposure into private growth through public equities if you’re not an accredited investor. Since optical players look very interconnected.

Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.

IMO photonics theme + CW laser chokepoint is goated. It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how $LITE went from $3B -> $65B+ from 2024 to now. Because $NVDA caused EML bottlenecks, and forced architectural changes. We're literally seeing the same thing today with CW lasers + 1.6T/CPO shifts with Nvidia signing LTAs everywhere. Now, $AMD + other CSPs are hunting for remaining scraps with large LTAs for CW lasers + optical components. GS Research's ~9-10x $154B optical TAM in 2028 and near $0 -> $91B CPO TAM in just 2 1/2 years. Don't just magically disappear from a month of trading volatility. $AAOI sitting at ~$13B, $SIVE sitting at ~$3B, and other CW laser players look strategically very valuable. And next year I think we'll look back and say "Why didn't I learn my lesson the first time with EML from Nvidia and pick up CW laser adjacent names!" Then there's likely gonna be some new mini trend 1-2 years from now like microled or quantum dot and we're gonna see the same thing repeat. Think Sumitomo's projections with CW laser share + silicon photonics being majority / dominant architecture should be correct. I'm personally just focusing on that bottleneck as you've seen with $SOI, $TSEM, $SIVE, and others.

Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS

I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD, $META ended up red. $SNAP, I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL, $NBIS, $ARM, $INTC, $MU, $LITE, SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI, $LITE, $AAOI, $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO, $HPS.A, $TSEM, $AEHR, $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.

Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi. https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU

Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).

Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line. $RPI is the perfect example: 1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist. 2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications. 3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI. 4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling. Earnings comes out and I was right. Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%). So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess. For stuff like $AXTI: 1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates" 2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing. 3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc. 4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS. 5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped). 6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls. 7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations. 8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc. A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up. With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing: 1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player. 2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here. 3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows). 4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts? 5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess. _ I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life. So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years. Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels. Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs. Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid. So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff. Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB. I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC? They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO) By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN. Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure. But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw). And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly). It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM? Downside risk? Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point. Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside. Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!". This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains. Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China. So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts. In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)... Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab? Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players? Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term. Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!" But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these.... Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work. I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.

Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain. Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets. CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints. Did I miss something? Or did markets miss something?

$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry.  Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.

Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone. I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI. And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq

Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.

I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.

Not everyone on X can do a did you listen anon. With triple digit returns on everything like $TSEM they went long on. https://t.co/7jGCpZWRcd

Just in case you want to frontrun the next major catalyst: $NVDA June 1 Computex/GTC Taipei keynote should be heavily bullish Taiwan optical ecosystem? Just like when I went long on $TSEM and others in Nvidia’s US event. Shunsin, Foci, Nextronics, MSScorps, and a lot of my Nvidia photonics ecosystem port might be critical mentions or have indirect catalysts there.

I'm 100% sure if I met all you "photonic memory" experts in real life. 498 out of 500 of you couldn't explain CXL memory pooling or KV cache infrastructure and what $PENG actually does to derive revenue off that. This is why I'm seeing all these random $RKLB, $HIMS, or non technical AI experts on my timeline now. Backseat commenting completely wrong things about M7U MOCVD capex and $TSEM that aren't related. Or conflating every single term like an $SMCI integrator with photonics IP. Then just pitching buzzwords every under every one of my posts.

Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?

What an insane day for photonics. $SIVE up 31.3% $TSEM up 23.1% $AAOI 20.01%. It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go. Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK? Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n

Just in case you were wondering $TSEM reported extra prepayment ($290M) to secure capacity. Downstream foundry capacity squeeze directly translates to an immense demand for raw substrates upstream with $SOI (more revenue). My optical picks are very interconnected. https://t.co/4vIAvS1jOl

And exactly 2 months later. $TSEM is trading at $250+ post earnings. The vast majority of my picks keep making ATHs every day after there’s more time for the thesis to play out. Did you listen anon? https://t.co/rGXFKwPC51

Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.