RT @dannycheng2022: Conviction is not measured in months. It is tested across multi-year cycles. $NVDA: -66% in 2021–22, then about +407% over 3 years into 2026. $AMD: -65% in 2021–22, then about +447% over 3 years into 2026. $TSM: -56% in 2022, then about +409% over 3 years into 2026. $PLTR: -65% in 2022, then about +1,049% over 3 years into 2026. $HOOD: -90% from the 2021 high to the 2022 low, then about +1,600% off that low into 2026. Many missed the parabolic run by trading in and out. Many more failed to hold through volatility. And many more will never learn!

Don’t sleep on $TSM. I have been bullish on it since my initial position in Feb 2024.

$TSM (October 5, 2026-Weekly Chart) The first Volatility Hole, together with the descending blue ribbon, marked the cycle bottom in May 2025. Since then the long term uptrend has resumed. The last two Volatility Holes were cleared and each triggered the subsequent rally. Reliable buy or accumulation signals: 1. A Volatility Hole that forms with the descending blue ribbon 2. The three Volatility Holes, once cleared 3. The momentum bars highlighted on the weekly chart

Everyone is asking "Where is Serenity" or "Who is Serenity". But nobody is asking... "How is Serenity"? I do read things from $AMD $8.2B acquisition of World Labs... but feeling pretty sick right now, so taking a little break. I remember saying physical AI + world models would major shift way back when, so maybe I should have invested in private companies at the time... Apart from that... other interesting news: - Some channel checks from ECOC was that $NVDA apparently secured 50% of $LITE Greensboro UHP laser capacity? And possibly contracts that allow them to secure the remaining capacity per Barclays. That's $5B in lasers (annual capacity)... so it's hilarious to see Nvidia go out and bottleneck the rest of the industry by doing this. But this just puts more strategic value on other merchant laser suppliers + more visibility for Lumentum. It's kinda game theory over allocation, since if you secure all the HBM, lasers, and others it inadvertently makes it much harder for competitors to scale their programs. - Then there's your massive $150B Nvidia authorized buybacks (just look at $AAPL when they did buybacks..) They're printing too much. - What's also interesting is that Samsung Electro-Mechanics is expanding their FC-BGA substrate capacity today... but customers are the one funding this. I also remembered $MRVL in SEC filings cited large body substrates as one of the core bottlenecks of their program (alongside $TSM sole source dependencies). So they also went out and did some other expansion agreements with related companies like AT&S recently. - OpenAI delaying Astra-6.1 October release over safety concerns just now. Nvidia also happened to launch an AI safety platform. I don't think this is meaningfully bearish that the models are just getting 2 good.

I’ve been running a barbell approach: cautious and aggressive at the same time. On the cautious side, I still want some relatively stable names with more manageable swings — $NVDA as one of my top two positions, plus $TSM, $GOOGL, $META, and $AMZN. Those give the portfolio ballast and long-term compounding. On the aggressive side, my biggest bets are $PLTR and $AMD, along with a few other high-volatility names I share with the community. That’s where I’m looking for asymmetric upside, knowing the swings can be much sharper. The goal isn’t to pick one style. It’s to keep enough stability that I can stay invested, while still putting real size into the names that can move the needle.

Conviction is not measured in months. It is tested across multi-year cycles. $NVDA: -66% in 2021–22, then about +407% over 3 years into 2026. $AMD: -65% in 2021–22, then about +447% over 3 years into 2026. $TSM: -56% in 2022, then about +409% over 3 years into 2026. $PLTR: -65% in 2022, then about +1,049% over 3 years into 2026. $HOOD: -90% from the 2021 high to the 2022 low, then about +1,600% off that low into 2026. Many missed the parabolic run by trading in and out. Many more failed to hold through volatility. And many more will never learn!

I bought the gap-up and those gaps were the launch before the parabolic move. $NVDA — May 25, 2023 $30.54 → $38.52 $TSM — Jan 18, 2024 $100.16 → $108.19 $PLTR — Feb 14–15, 2023 $7.61 → $8.80–$10.11 $AMD — Oct 6, 2025 $164.67 → $200+ https://t.co/950lyevujc

I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab. -> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition. Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself 2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown). It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability. Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons" 3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given. It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes: -> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China. If they wanted to slow down, they could have done so themselves at any point in time: Yet everyone is still fighting over the scarce resources to run AI as seen with memory procurement from Samsung going all the way to 2031. Or the $NVDA / $AVGO supply constrained 70-100%+ Y/Y growth protections. So I suggest people unfollow the clowns on X that predict AI stocks from $NVDA to $TSM to $MU will crash for engagement. All this does is cause retail to panic short term and hand over the keys to the kingdom over to others.

So... here's my take on US / China tensions: You have European monopolies like: - $ASML (EUV) - $SOI (Photonics-SOI) - Zeiss SMT (ASML EUV supplier), Trumpf (ASML EUV laser supplier) Japan has many near/complete monoplies like: - TOK, JSR, ShinEstu, Fujifilm for EUV photoresist - 90-100% share - coat/develop equiment with Tokyo Electron -90%+ - actinic EUV patterned mask inspection (Lasertec) -100% share - EUV mask blanks (HOYA, AGC) ~93% share - arf photoresist - Nittobo T-Glass - ABF film (Ajinomoto) - lot of misc from specialty glassAGC, wafer thinning/grinding/dicing with Disco and others. Then there's US allied countries like Taiwan eg. $TSM, Korean memory with $SKHY / Samsung. US has EDA with Synopsys/Cadence, $LCRX / $KLA, $NVDA, and many downstream giants. China has many chokepoints such as gallium, graphite, refined lithium, and others + benefits from cost mass production over many future supply chains (eg. robotics). If I had to give my opinion on US / China supply chain wars: - US is trying to achieve Western independence from China/Russia rare earths + materials supply, but took too long (should have been a priority last decade). - China is trying to eliminate strategic chokepoint dependence and forcing US reliance on Chinese supply chains (as seen with Wf6) It's a race on who achieves supply chain independence first to gain leverage over the other. And fun thing is, AI acceleration kinda throws an unknown variable in terms of speeding up independence. As well as open source efforts (eg. RISC-V), which China is heavily focusing on. So it's a weird paradox where US should theoretically support open source hardware development + open source AI, but it's also being exploited against them. From a Chinese perspective, they're pressuring US supply chains by targeting Japan, which increases Western supply chain reliance on China. And going down the list to eliminate competitor chokepoints internally by throwing subsidized spend into R&D. Or by acqusition as seen with China's acquisition of EU leaders like Ficontec. America... they had all the cards initially, but I think they got too comfortable, and took too long to focus heavily on rare earths (recent funding is a good thing). The earlier tariffs went the wrong way (socks, furniture, other exports), and pissed off allies in EU/Canada too. Which could have been used for leverage for major chokepoints. But maybe they'll realize soon enough why allies are important. Anyway, we'll see what happens, just my two cents about ongoing dynamics. In an ideal world, everyone works together... TLDR: Just some shower thoughts on how there's an unspoken race on who achieves supply chain independence first to gain leverage over the other.

$MRVL SVP and CTO of Optical Engineering Radha Nagarajan, at Semicon Taiwan: 1. Names Europe/Japan for laser supply sourcing as examples for SiPH modules. Very interesting that Marvell's SVP had Europe in mind when giving examples of laser supply sourcing for SiPH modules. I can't really name any notable public EU merchant laser suppliers other than $SIVE. Japan I can namedrop a few like Sumitomo/Furukawa etc. Maybe I'm reading too much into the geography, but a lot of US players like $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI are redirecting laser capacity internally, so it's interesting that the US wasn't mentioned. 2. Silicon photonics, high-speed drivers, amplifiers and DSPs come from other suppliers, with final integration taking place in Taiwan Makes sense, with $TSM COUPE / $ASX / ShunSin, and others. 3. Nagarajan appears to say NPO could arrive first around late 2027–2028, with full CPO continuing afterward. Good to hear more about commercialization timelines. $LITE similarly sees NPO around late 2027-H1 2028, while expecting CPO laser shipments in H2 2027 ahead of CPO scale up deployments in 2028. Revenue from upstream suppliers usually hits a bit earlier. 4. $MRVL on Google's TPU program vs. $AVGO / Mediatek and others. "Hyperscalers are seeking greater supply-chain diversification. If Google selects Marvell for a particular AI-chip segment, that does not mean it will stop working with MediaTek or Broadcom". Guess he's just trying to emphasize pie keeps growing for ASIC suppliers, nothing really too new. 5. All of Marvell's advanced ICs and ASICs are manufactured at TSMC, making the foundry central to the broader architecture. $TSM backbone of AI as usual. TLDR: - Very odd Marvell's SVP highlights Europe for laser sourcing, given how small a pool for merchant suppliers there is... - NPO volume looks late 2027, CPO after that. Upstream optical suppliers should start seeing revenue earlier

Just taking a look at Leopold's Situational Awareness Q2 13F latest holdings as of June 30th: 1. $SNDK - $5.674B 2. $MU - $5.574B 3. $BE - $1.899B 4. $TSM - $1.265B 5. $NBIS - $1.232B 6. $CRWV - $744.5M 7. $CORZ - $665.6M 8. $STM - $584.3M (new) 9. $APLD - $469.0M 10. $RIOT - $468.2M 11. $SHAZ - $456.8M 12. $IREN - $433.3M Less material positions includeed $CLSK, $KEEL, sei-network:native, $WYFI, $BTDR, $TE, $HIVE, $VSH, and others. Seems like Situational Awareness concentrated around memory (Sandisk, Micron), that have low forward multiples but high visibility into 2030. As well as Anthropic/energy/power adjacent from colo/neoclouds + Bloom. Some of the bottlenecks like the MLCC trade, he couldn't see play out (Taiyo Yuden, etc). due to July's liqudation. And some are new like $STM (eg. MCU price hikes). With core winners of everything such as $TSM (but less high-beta). This looked similar to my H2 2026/early 2027 portfolio with Nebius, Micron, TSM, colo players and others as core focus. (I've heavily concentrated on upstream networking/legacy memory currently, with a lot of name overlap). But always cool to see what others are doing.

Very interesting to notice Taiwan wildly outperform the rest of the World like US/EU. Foci ($NVDA / $TSM FAU supplier) went from 400 -> 900 -> 400 -> 800, and recovered insanely fast from July. Not sure if earnings like Etron or others are just absurd to not care about macro? https://t.co/WHzwj9n6e8

Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today: - 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total. - $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor" $TSM also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027 with market share topping 50%+ of the optical transceiver market If you hold a monopoly-like position over a chokepoint: (UBS estimates Soitec has 95% share of the market for substrates underpinning silicon photonics chips) Revenue usually flows through you.

$TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging: "Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere... Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN) Just some bucket ideas: Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa Optical fiber / FAU: Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo Fiber Optic / CPO Connectors: BizLink, $GLW , Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO testing: MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma (disclosure: exposure to theme above, individual names not named by TSMC) There are others I like as well, such as ShunSin, which now has explicit TSMC COUPE exposure but probably belongs under a different category like packaging/integration. eg. "Foxconn unit ShunSin confirms TSMC COUPE partnership" I don't think there's anything too new vs. H1, aside from ongoing news (eg. FAU looks like there will have a demand imbalance in 2027, from a report last week). But it's helpful to reiterate overall beneficiaries from time to time...

I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $BE up 11.83%. Or Trump... But you know what else is cool? FAU bottlenecks for CPO. I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $TSM / $NVDA CPO roadmaps... This was some media commentary supporting that: "It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVDA FAU supply chain" "Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs" In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand." (UDN, mandarin -> english translation is kinda off) Cough cough, "existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand" Tad early right now since mass production is expected H2 2027, but cool to read updates around this.

Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.

I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life. It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD. And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”

Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.

Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.

Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi. But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO. A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies… If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers. This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.

Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB supply shortages are projected to persist until 2028, and component shortages/price hikes are already forcing ODMs like Inventec to issue conservative H2 shipment - DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing custom ASICs to bypass $NVDA (kinda expected by now). - Anthropic has achieved a $30B ARR and is projected to hit >$1B in Q3 profit. Turns out these frontier labs are more profitable than people think. - US admin pressured $AAPL to source from $INTC, in exchange for tariff exception. Kinda pressuring alignment away from TSM. - $TSM plans a 30x expansion of its Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) capacity by 2028, growing from 500 to 25,000 wafers per month - Hanmi Semiconductor is entering the CoWoS packaging equipment market - $NVDA and NTT hosting a conference July 24th to discuss CPO strategies. - 5x general NAND flash price hike this year, market size $489B by next year triggered by RAG/inference. Samsung and SK Hynix make emergency fab investments, NAND equipment suppliers go brrrr. - Gas turbine bottleneck, 40% supply gap accompanied by staggering 5-year delivery cycles (mega-fabs need them for mass production). - AI probe card assembly has hit a severe bottleneck apparently. Which is attempted to by solved with things like Innovation Service's machines. - Nanya, 79.5% gross margins reported, memory go brr. 4x capex for capacity/advanced packaging. - CXMT's STAR Market IPO on July 16, so should bring a lot of attention to memory players in that supply chain. - KYEC $1.4B investment into US for $TSM Arizona output test facilities. Lot of these players like $AMKR and others should go brr in 2028. - $INTC CEO warned last month that helium could hinder the manufacturing costs and delivery times of AI chips - 3D NAND word lines are shifting from Tungsten to Molybdenum starting at the 375-layer node - SambaNova secured JPM for AI inference and raised $1B at an $11B valuation. - HBM prices projections to double in 2027 as $NVDA Rubin platform drives demand. - $MU provides $500 million in funding to support GlobalWafers' US manufacturing capacity - $META 'Iris' will enter mass production in September via $AVGO and TSMC and Meta aims to double computing power to 14GW by 2027. - Largan Precision has secured its first CPO FAU order, mass production slated for middle of next year (kinda indication around Foci and others). - Samsung and SK Hynix have delayed the implementation of hybrid bonding packaging technology for HBM4 apparently - Memory costs (DRAM/NAND) have reached 60% of the BOM for sub-$400 smartphones, causing a severe volume contraction. - SK Hynix successfully rasied $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR - $TSLA issued procurement guidelines requiring suppliers to reach weekly production of 1,000 units by September and double to 2,000-2,500 by year end for its 3rd gen Optimus robot. Apparently Alliance Technology and A-Link may be in this supply chain harmonic reducers and vision lenses? Kinda go through all this stuff every day, but don't wanna be a news reporter so just consolidated stuff I found interesting.

Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment are damaged. -> if the company issues a response, they can’t go into detail since supply chains are confidential… but people still doubt them -> Poster gain more impressions, then does it again with more views the next time. Don’t quite think this is very healthy, with more folks copying that playbook. Especially around incentive structures.

Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.

$TSM (July 7, 2026-daily chart update) While $TSM has never been a favorite among retail investors, it has quietly gone on to deliver one of the strongest and most consistent uptrends in the market. Since early 2024, I’ve recommended it as a core staple holding for portfolios amid retail skepticism. When most retail traders ask me if it’s too late to buy, my answer remains unchanged: if $TSM ever tops out, it may very well signal the end of this broader bull cycle. That strength has become even more evident on the daily chart. The uptrend accelerated sharply after I highlighted the volatility hole in late March 2026 with my Patreon and X community — a move that precisely marked the bottom in the $315–$320 zone. Since then, every time the daily candle has touched the lower boundary of the bullish red ribbon, it has bounced. This reinforces a clear message: every meaningful dip is a buying opportunity for those who share the same long-term conviction in $TSM. Without any need to trade in and out, $TSM has delivered approximately 43% gains since the late-March bottom and over 300% since my original bullish signals in 2024. This is the true beauty of long-term investing: sit tight, remain disciplined, and let quality compound.

My honest advice: Position sizing in the right stocks matters way more than catching the exact bottom. No influencer or content creator in the world can retire you. Even if you pick winners, tiny positions won’t move the needle. Owning 5,000 shares of $TSLA, $NVDA or $TSM still won’t be enough to retire comfortably in advanced countries in Asia or China! Size big when you’re right and keep buying during discounts — or stay small forever.

Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.

Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.

Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.

Nothing is more stupid than Bloomberg copying BofA playbook with KOSPI back in March. And framing Taiwan’s $TSM ~23.6x forward p/e and $NVDA upstream supply chain as a “bubble”. Then using the words going into “debt” instead of “margin” + comparing Taiwan’s market to the .com bubble. Crap like this is why retail trust in media has dropped off a cliff in the past few years.

I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS. Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.

$TSM (June 20, 2026-weekly chart update) I know most people don’t care about $TSM or don’t even bother keeping track of this gem. I’ve been holding it for two years without selling a single share, and I’ve been charting it consistently for my community because I genuinely don’t want anyone to miss it. If you had simply followed the highlighted signals on my weekly chart and continued to buy and accumulate, you would be sitting on very nice compounding gains right now. Trading is fun, but long-term wealth creation is about holding and consistently adding to it. We don’t need multiple stocks to win— $TSM is a must-hold this cycle, and I’ve been telling my community that for a long time!

RT @dannycheng2022: The $TSM monthly chart from June 2018 to April 2026 shows only 4 massive wealth-printing red candles across nearly 8 years. If you had followed them with discipline, those alone would have delivered life-changing results. They are clearly highlighted on my monthly chart. Tomorrow, once April closes, I’ll update the monthly charts and highlight at least 10 powerful bullish candles to give our community a clear, big-picture view of where we stand. Yes, I’m working even on Labour Day.When I’m free, I don’t waste a single second — I chart. Because I genuinely want every one of you to succeed and outperform. This isn’t just analysis for me; it’s a mission. Stay tuned. The update drops tomorrow.

RT @dannycheng2022: Some people will always tell you not to buy a stock once it has already doubled or tripled — but my experience has been the exact opposite. I’ve made it a habit to chase strong momentum names after they’ve already run hard, even 2x or 5x from my initial positions. Many of those decisions turned out to be highly profitable, especially when I sized them aggressively. For example: I chased $NVDA around $30+ in 2023 after it had already tripled from its 2022 cycle low near $10.80. I chased $PLTR after it doubled from $5.83 to $12 in 2023. I chased $AMD at $150 in 2025 after it had already doubled from its cycle low near $76. I chased $TSM at $112 in February 2024 after it had doubled from $56.90 in 2022. I chased $IREN after it 10x’d from $1.02 to over $10 in 2025. I chased $ONDS at $2 and higher after it 5x’d from $0.38 in October 2023, and I kept adding as it continued to climb (4x from my initial entries). I chased $HOOD in the $10–12 range after it doubled from its 2022 lows, then kept adding more between $70 and $77 in 2026. I chased $BB between $4.50 and $5.50 after it doubled from $2.01 in August 2024. I chased $TE at $6.50–$7.50 after it had already 6x’d from $0.92 in April 2025. The real edge isn’t avoiding stocks that have already doubled or tripled — it’s having rock-solid conviction and the discipline to hold through volatility. Pure fundamentals rarely give you that edge. What matters is a reliable mix of technical signals, whale momentum, sector tailwinds, and a clear narrative. Chasing strength has beaten waiting for “cheap” names every single time — as long as you know which ones still have fuel left and you’re willing to ride the waves. @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @sheslee @tonylee80 @Hiteshp99 @Nagetheworld

Okay my fellow Koreans, it's been awhile. Foosung (093370, ~$1.2B MC) looks like a massive beneficiary soon. Basically China export controlled Japan, causing their WF₆ supply chain to go down. Meaning 25% of the world's supply required for SK Hynix, Samsung, $TSM go bye bye. If you remember the Straight of Homuz with Oil, that's a lot. Foosung's importance just shot through the roof given from some est. they're 10% of the supply chain? So that number goes up, massive bottleneck for demand. Then this looks like the best pure play beneficiary outside of China (even if precursors pricing are rough). Don't have positions, just wanted to publish an idea.

Bro I still can't believe Japan's WF6 supply chain got shut down from China export controls. Which affects $TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix. Are we really playing global supply chain warfare and game theory over AI supremacy? Japan probably has the most amount of obscure monopolies, but they haven't fully been weaponizing it back yet. So I wonder if this is the start of a slippery slope?

Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line. $RPI is the perfect example: 1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist. 2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications. 3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI. 4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling. Earnings comes out and I was right. Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%). So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess. For stuff like $AXTI: 1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates" 2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing. 3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc. 4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS. 5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped). 6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls. 7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations. 8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc. A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up. With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing: 1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player. 2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here. 3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows). 4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts? 5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess. _ I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life. So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years. Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels. Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs. Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid. So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff. Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.

Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary). MC is at ~ $2.18B. $TSM COUPE mass production starts this half, H2 2026. and... they have plans for "Aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with subsidiaries Xintec". This is just very high-level, not too much public figures on volumes flowing to Xintec in COUPE. But this is just a asymmetrical guess on $TSM wanting to vertically integrate as much as possible and volume flowing down to their own subidary. Lot of the Taiwan CPO stocks like Foci, MSSCorp, Shunsin (foxconn advanced packaging/test), and co. are gradually being repriced... (disclosure: have exposure to everything above). But generally, architectural shift is going to be pretty sudden, and will show up in their balance sheets soon. Especially $TSM related companies (Xintec looks more compelling than VisEra, at least for this next few months). Foci I've already covered for FAU.

Some people will always tell you not to buy a stock once it has already doubled or tripled — but my experience has been the exact opposite. I’ve made it a habit to chase strong momentum names after they’ve already run hard, even 2x or 5x from my initial positions. Many of those decisions turned out to be highly profitable, especially when I sized them aggressively. For example: I chased $NVDA around $30+ in 2023 after it had already tripled from its 2022 cycle low near $10.80. I chased $PLTR after it doubled from $5.83 to $12 in 2023. I chased $AMD at $150 in 2025 after it had already doubled from its cycle low near $76. I chased $TSM at $112 in February 2024 after it had doubled from $56.90 in 2022. I chased $IREN after it 10x’d from $1.02 to over $10 in 2025. I chased $ONDS at $2 and higher after it 5x’d from $0.38 in October 2023, and I kept adding as it continued to climb (4x from my initial entries). I chased $HOOD in the $10–12 range after it doubled from its 2022 lows, then kept adding more between $70 and $77 in 2026. I chased $BB between $4.50 and $5.50 after it doubled from $2.01 in August 2024. I chased $TE at $6.50–$7.50 after it had already 6x’d from $0.92 in April 2025. The real edge isn’t avoiding stocks that have already doubled or tripled — it’s having rock-solid conviction and the discipline to hold through volatility. Pure fundamentals rarely give you that edge. What matters is a reliable mix of technical signals, whale momentum, sector tailwinds, and a clear narrative. Chasing strength has beaten waiting for “cheap” names every single time — as long as you know which ones still have fuel left and you’re willing to ride the waves. @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @chad_ventures @gabz_investing @sheslee @tonylee80 @Hiteshp99 @Nagetheworld

$SMH (June 5, 2026-daily) Since early 2024, I’ve been telling my community that $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM, and $AVGO are must-holds. If you want real success, you need to build and maintain a larger position in at least two of these names. Fast forward two years: if you’ve held through the volatility and bought the dips, you’re sitting on serious gains. Even if you don’t own individual semiconductor stocks, $SMH remains a core staple. The bullish uptrend looks unstoppable. My daily charts have delivered four clear buy/accumulation signals, and my favorite volatility hole indicator is the best guidance — a break above the upper boundary could 99% ignite the next leg higher!

I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.

- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything from laser fab to assembly in America. $471M/month… that’s in 2027, the TAM increases exponentially in 2028. $SIVE is also ramping absurdly high, 77% revenue pipeline growth of the entire company’s history to ~$799M Primarily from photonics… in a single quarter. And they’re projecting 60% gross margins off that. Foci - $NVDA / $TSM primarily FAU supplier and bottleneck for COUPE. Genuinely not sure how this is $2.8B. BOM share for their passive components + FAU are massive in 2028. Just a bit early H1 2026. Shunsin - Legit you see Foxconn get CPO/photonics related orders over and over for $NVDA and others. Just nobody knows the packaging/testing gets done by Shunsin. A lot of contracts are also under Shunsin’s subsidiary too.. so markets/algorithms don’t know what’s coming imo. Runner up is $XFAB, they’ll probably be central to EU CHIPS act 2 for silicon photonics at ~$1.5B MC. And of course SiC/GaN foundries should go brr with 800vdc push by Nvidia. Especially if they’re the only high volume one in United States per Dpt. Of Commerce. And it’s such a low price/book ratio so you’re kinda getting the company upside for free, while US Gov/EU Gov subsidize their capex.

Oh look, a new UDN article about $TSM COUPE + AI optical markets. Institutional investors are optimistic that Taiwanese companies: FOCI (3363), and MSScorps (6830) are expected to benefit But... that "Institutional" should be changed to retail investors on X? For FOCI: "Its FAU products have been developed in cooperation with TSMC for at least three years, and the specifications have been promoted to 1.6T, 3.2T, and the subsequent mass production schedule has become the focus of market observation." For MSS: "cut into the silicon photonics and CPO detection analysis, the main "light loss detection" technology ... and launch of the silicon photonics test platform, lock in research and development, engineering verification, failure analysis and a small number of diverse test applications." These are still two extremely small companies... and things like MSS weren't even mentioned by GS, despite the news claims about relations. So feels like X found this early, mainstream institutions are likely about to enter after seeing this sort of confirmation.

You don’t need to time the exact bottom. Position sizing is far more important. I never tried to catch the absolute cycle low. Instead, I bought after strong rebounds of +50% to over +900% once the recovery was clearly underway — and simply sized my positions properly. This is what I’ve done with strong size over the past three years: $NVDA — Bought at $15.20 in Jan 2023 (+41% from cycle low $10.80) $PLTR — Bought at $8.80 (+51% from $5.83) $TSM — Bought at $112 in Feb 2024 (+97% from $56.90) $RKLB — Bought at $6 in Aug 2024 (+73% from $3.47) $ASTS — Bought at $20 in Aug 2024 (+915% from $1.97) $EOSE — Bought at $0.89 (+46% from $0.61) $IREN — Bought at $3 in Oct 2023 (+75% from $1.71) $CIFR — Bought at $3 in Apr 2023 (+687% from $0.38) $AMD — Bought at $110 in May 2025 (+45% from $76) $HOOD — Bought at $10 in Dec 2023 (+47% from $6.81) Main lesson: Timing the exact bottom is overrated. Getting the position size right and buying once the trend has turned matters much more for long-term results. Big winners come from conviction + proper sizing, not from buying at the perfect price!

Leopold released his 13F and uhh... WHAT IS THIS? Puts in $SMH $NVDA $ORCL $AVGO $AMD $MU $TSM $ASML Bro turned into Michael Burry However, the fact that he was in these positions on March 31st means that the following rally over the next six weeks absolutely obliterated him. What is happening to Leopold (or what does he think is happening to us)?

Next year… I’m expecting there to be many articles about FAU + component bottlenecks. Especially as the new CPO architecture led by $NVDA + $TSM starts to scale. Then a lot of these names like FOCI (~$2.8B MC) or Nextronics (~$246M MC) that I’m mentioning today will be in the center of it. Despite many of these “commodity” labels… (just look at transformers/NAND) And I’ll do a “Did you listen anon post” like $AXTI. We’ll see if this is right.

Just posted: 9 of Dr. Cat’s @cantonmeow video highlights featuring 27 key stocks you need to keep an eye on. Due to time constraints, Cat wasn’t able to cover more than that this week. That said, these are all must-own stocks for this market cycle, though there are still some more. On the semiconductor side, Cat has covered $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, and $TSM extensively over the past year, and I’ve been highlighting them as must-own names since February 2024. Rather than repeating the same semiconductor commentary this week, we’ve focused this time on covering a broader range of sectors. Not everyone is willing to put in extensive work on the weekends, but we have done it consistently over the past years because we are committed to keeping our community well-prepared and focused — ignoring all the market noise on X!

HOW DOES $POET ($3.14B) HAVE A HIGHER VALUATION THAN FOCI (3363, $3.1B)??? FOCI IS LITERALLY THE BOTTLENECK FOR CPO VOLUME RAMP AND MAIN SUPPLIER FOR $TSM AND $NVDA. High conviction Foci outperforms once institutions find this name. Also, can Foci management please pursue NASDAQ ADR like $HIMX? Thank you.

RT @dannycheng2022: Semiconductor Forward P/E (as of May 10, 2026): $NVDA: 26.0x $AMD: 53.0x $TSM: 26.3x $AVGO: 38.0x $SMCI: 11.3x $ON: 33.2x $ASML: 39.0x $SMH (semis ETF) ~33-38x weighted avg. $SOXL is leveraged — no standard P/E. I own the first three — $NVDA, $AMD, and $TSM — and they make up the largest portion of my portfolios. I’ll continue holding and adding more if whales offer bigger discounts. How about you?

FOCI (3363) is one of the most undervalued CPO players in the entire market right now at ~$3B. Their BOM is massive relative to MC and they're expected to capture a dominant market share for $NVDA / $TSM. You only start to see this show up 2027 / 2028, even though we're entering H2 2026 now (which is what I mean by frontrunning CPO supercycle).

Honestly I’m expecting FOCI (3363) to blow away projections over next two years. It’s a pretty high conviction position for me medium term at this level. Since they’re expected to be the leading supplier to $NVDA and $TSM and get frequently cited as a bottleneck for that $91B+ 2028 CPO TAM (GS). Insane how it’s $3B MC as a critical CPO bottleneck required for scale, while LightWave Logic literally has around the same valuation at $2.7B in development stage.

FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure. 1. $TSM COUPE advanced packaging director hinted that FAU supplies by FOCI be a pretty big bottleneck for mass production. 2. Leading supplier for $NVDA and $TSM expected with up to 50% market share from Morgan Stanley note. 3. $HIMX signaled record demand and that Foci should scale up capacity (meaning high medium term demand visibility) 4. FAU and optical components make a large % of CPO related BOM from Goldman Sachs research note. 5. Overarching CPO tam basically goes from near 0 to $91B in the next two years from the GS note. I’m very confident about this theme directionally over time (NFA), despite any recent market volatility. Risks include getting designed out for later generations. But over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated compared to other names but might need to be actively monitored. Just throwing out ideas over long positions I hold, for more purer play CPO exposure.

Semiconductor Forward P/E (as of May 10, 2026): $NVDA: 26.0x $AMD: 53.0x $TSM: 26.3x $AVGO: 38.0x $SMCI: 11.3x $ON: 33.2x $ASML: 39.0x $SMH (semis ETF) ~33-38x weighted avg. $SOXL is leveraged — no standard P/E. I own the first three — $NVDA, $AMD, and $TSM — and they make up the largest portion of my portfolios. I’ll continue holding and adding more if whales offer bigger discounts. How about you?

Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.

$TSM (May 8, 2026-monthly chart update) Fast forward 2 years to 2026 — I’m still holding $TSM from my initial position at $111–$112. I know not many people are still not interested in it, but $TSM has been a sure winner in the semiconductor space over the past two years. And it should continue to perform well if the AI revolution is still in the early innings, as mentioned by Jensen Huang and Lisa Su. When you’re in the right stock, never trade in and out — you’ll risk missing the long-term rally. Instead, appreciate the dips offered by whales and use them to DCA aggressively.

Pretty sure institutions like GS missed Shunsin (6451) at $1.65B for CPO packaging/test/assembly. Which is why I'm very bullish on it as a completely backdoored, hidden + major beneficiary of $NVDA CPO ramp. Foxconn is a major supply chain partner among $TSM and $ASX. But… Shunsin is Foxconn's optical arm, and captures their captive optical and advanced packaging volume. So they're not explicitly listed anywhere or have direct contracts with Nvidia (but Foxconn does) But likely soaks up Nvidia CPO + other volumes through Foxconn vertical integration.

The $TSM monthly chart from June 2018 to April 2026 shows only 4 massive wealth-printing red candles across nearly 8 years. If you had followed them with discipline, those alone would have delivered life-changing results. They are clearly highlighted on my monthly chart. Tomorrow, once April closes, I’ll update the monthly charts and highlight at least 10 powerful bullish candles to give our community a clear, big-picture view of where we stand. Yes, I’m working even on Labour Day.When I’m free, I don’t waste a single second — I chart. Because I genuinely want every one of you to succeed and outperform. This isn’t just analysis for me; it’s a mission. Stay tuned. The update drops tomorrow.